Joker, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917 Top 73rd BAFTA Nominations

Yeah that’s fair enough, I just thought the narrative plus the fact that lots of people genuinely love LW (myself included even though I don’t think I’d put it top 5) plus it was gaining steam really late in the piece – it missed everything early on then people started talking about it like mad and it recently got PGA and WGA and was looking like a real contender. To be fair the reasoning was right given it got 6 nominations, it just wasn’t enough for director. Did you ultimately predict Philips? Or Waititi? Or someone else?

The reason I didn’t predict Gerwig – apart from the stats favoring Joker a bit – was that I never thought she would become the first two-time female BD nominee so soon. I decided on this stance very early on in the season.

Yup, I agree – it didn’t make much sense for Joker to miss DGA but get in for BD. It feels very strange even post-factum. Again, the fact that it’s dark, like other previous DGA-snubbed entries, is the only thing that makes it work, logically. (Of course, the Globe and BAFTA nominations also help a lot. But no Critics Choice nod, so it was far from an easy call, overall. I guess there might also have been some stat based on its leading BAFTA nominations, too – but that didn’t enter my head until just now.) I built a whole new precursor table (2010 to today, and I would have gone even deeper, had I had time) to get a better idea of the precedents before deciding to stick with Phillips. 🙂

100% agree with that.

Yeah, Joker is probably a good guess for BAFTA, indeed…

Joker would be amazing but I’m not holding my breath. Still a comic book movie and you should never underestimate bias even when it makes Top 5

BAFTA Voters are more ”diverse” than Oscar with an average age of 45 and 43% females ..I seriously doubt the female voters will ever go for 1917.. it’s too niche for the mass of voters methinks .. a foreign language movie won last year so it’s possible they ‘ll go for parasite with its social commentary ; the UK is much more socially liberal then its ever been before ..Joker is very popular here too

OUATIH

so what do you have winning BP at bafta ?

“Bafta voters like movies about the movie industry too”

Yeah, that was my reasoning too when I said Once could also win… As to war movies, I think we have different tastes when it comes to those. 🙂 I loved Dunkirk. (And I, too, would call myself a bit of a war movie fan. Not a huge one, but I tend to like them more than the average genre…)

I’m not that convinced it will win BAFTA ; it’s peaking at just the right time , but even Dunkirk, a much more historical important movie didn’t even win

It ain’t breaking the Oscar stats, though. 🙂 Not if it doesn’t get a ton of help from the other contenders in the coming weeks…

It’s probably already past the point of no return, honestly, in terms of the stats. Even if it somehow gets in for screenplay, acting AND editing at the Oscars.

I haven’t looked at stats or anything yet (they will probably rule it out) but it’s hard for me to see something other than 1917 winning picture there. (And then still losing at the Oscars, of course.)

Even BAFTA directing now has a very suspect correlation percentage to the BP Oscar. Editing I think is even worse. (Because I see I left the BAFTA directing nomination stat in my table, but took out the editing stat.) That said, of course these snubs matter – they make the obviously highly relevant Oscar nomination appear a lot less likely than if they hadn’t happened…

If Dern wins (and she probably will), a large part of it will be because of how well she is liked, and her “legacy”. Her performance is incredible, although a bit similar to past performances like her lawyer from Big Little Lies. I do like that it’s a fictitious character and not from a biopic.

Same with Pitt, his legacy will probably nab him an Oscar.

Same with Zellweger, her legacy will probably nab her an Oscar.

Same with Phoenix, his legacy will probably nab him an Oscar.

All are good performances, but “legacies” keep people of color out of contention as voters are unaware of what Zhao Shuzhen or Song Kang-ho’s credentials are, for example.

This year, Pitt or Dern will win for their legacies. Next year it’ll be Aniston or Ryder or Bateman or Alda or … Some African Americans get nominations for their legacies, too. That’s typically enough to quench the Academy’s thirst for inclusion.

Now THAT is a white acting lineup. Yeah, they are rightfully acknowledging some people of color behind the camera, but audiences are unaware of most of it. I mean, Margo Robbie for TWO spots in Supporting Actress when one would have been too much (Bombshell isn’t very good). She’s a good actress, but this year she is clearly coasting on the ingenue tag.

Oh well, the BAFTAs are pretty much immune to cries for “diversity”.

Downtown is more loved by Americans than Brits

Maybe BAFTA snubbed JLo because she wouldn’t have been able to come anyway since the Super Bowl is the same day.

Anti pedophile bias you mean.

Have we not realized to go into these things with low expectations yet? “the trick is not minding”. Yeah..

I really didn’t like Midsommar as a whole but yes her performance there is probably the best about it. Also let us not forget the underrated Park Chan-wook directed limited series The Little Drummer Girl where she held her own acting alongside Alexander Skarsgaard and Michael Shannon. Phenomenal year for her indeed and Little Women is just the crowning jewel of it all.

Lupita should have gotten a nomination over Scarlett. Marriage Story has been downhill since it premiered on Netflix, that just tells you how studio driven this is. It was nothing special. The Irishman and The Two Popes were well deserved.

That’s really all POPES deserves IMO… Maybe cinematography but there are at least 5 better choices

I’m all in for Hollywood now ; it’s clear Irishman is sinking and I seriously doubt that 1917 could win (maybe Bafta)..so all that leaves is Parasite and it has the foreign language handicap … Artist, Argo , Birdman and now Hollywood ..this feels so right to me

The foreign press absolutely loves Joker which all the Oscar predictors keep forgetting. I wouldn’t be surprised.

That is true. That cast just the names alone I thought was a sure-fire SAG Ensemble nominee. That is why its late screening is the only reason I see why it missed. I mean it’s not like it’s a bad or mediocre film. It’s among the year’s best. Bomshell however screened a week earlier so it may have spelled the difference though still weird that Bombshell got the SAG voting members in that short span of time even if for me it’s a mediocre film.

I don’t think Shuzen is happening. She missed the Globes, BAFTA and SAG. There is no way she’s getting in over Lead Actress Awkwafina. It could probably happen if Awkwafina gets in Lead and Wang in Screenplay but really without the Globes/BAFTA/SAG precursors, Shuzen in supporting is unlikely.

Can Sandler get in?
What about the Safdies for Original screenplay

LW is locked and loaded. Popes may become Actor/Script player but that’s it.

Can and will be nominated, I believe. She’s the only person who’s ever played Amy believably and I think if there IS a Little Women wave, then she’s in.

Dern all but locked.
Robbie looking strong.
ScarJo popping up where it counts.
Pugh coming on strong.

Is J.Lo (with no BAFTA and Hustlers not striking anywhere else) dangling in 5th with a chance of being knocked out by Shuzhen or someone else???

My bet is on The Farewell.

Erivo = underwhelming reviews, Lifetime movie about the subject matter only America and no one else gives 2 shits about. The snub was obvious from miles away. BAFTA was always going to revive Ronan/Pugh/Pryce. it’s impressive they nominated Buckly over trying to sneak Miren.

Why’s that? He’s in a film that’s doing REALLY well this award season, and it’s been hitting all the major categories. There’s no way he’s missing at this point.

Well technically with all the work Kidman has had done she is a new face.

I prefer Pugh… Plus it’d be nice to see more new faces, Kidman has had her time(s) to shine.

well, it’s winter time.

Lupita and Awkwafina deserves the nom.
I dont get the Scarlett Johansson noms. Marriage Story was cringey (especiially the final scenes), and her performance in Jojo Rabbit was literaly average at best.

…women

Maybe PARASITE or 1917 over JOJO?

I know but if I’m being honest, as much as I loved The Farewell and Awkwafina, I firmly believe that purely based on the performances, Buckley would be more deserving. It has been frustrating to see her get zero recognition this season so I’m pleased she got at least the Bafta nod.

Except Birdman had a point with its one-take approach about how film actors (multiple takes) can be as talented as stage actors (one take).

Once again, the BAFTAs prove they’re super white with their lack of diversity noms as well as terrible taste in movies like their love for the Martin Scorsese rip-off known as Joker.

I love the surprise Booksmart nomination for Original Screenplay.

DeNiro is officially a SHOCKER NOMINEE if it happens… That’s crazy in itself.

Yeah okay, but was the picture nom for Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, or A Star is Born any more deserved? Those are, in my opinion, worse films than Black Panther yet nobody really questions their place in the lineup.
Edit: Oh, and I missed the worst of the bunch, which actually managed to win Best Picture. Looking back, Black Panther was one of the most deserving of the bunch.

it isn’t but it made 72M in UK which is insane for an R rated movies. many PG-13 blockbusters don’t go that high. it also received strong critical support. American critics are an anomaly.

So what do you think will win BP at bafta ?

I could see it happen. I don’t think it will but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

It would be hilarious if it were BAFTA of all award shows, giving Joker a BP win

Relevant things that happened here in terms of stats:

– 1917 missed for screenplay. (The last 15 Oscar BP winners got in in this category at BAFTA – the famous most recent “exception” being Million Dollar Baby, which makes the stat look even stronger.) And acting. Even though it’s British… (Yet it got in at WGA, which maybe is more important. The Two Popes, also nominated for British Film, did the opposite, missing at WGA but getting in here, which makes more sense. Anyway, 1917 not getting in here EVEN after being nominated by the WGA is suspect, to say the least… It’s now shown weakness in industry precursors in no fewer than THREE different major categories – acting at SAG and here; editing at ACE and here; screenplay here. Still doesn’t look like it’s BP winner material, unfortunately…)

– Parasite of course also missed for acting, which is, as I said last year about Roma, quite relevant. (Same as for screenplay, the last 15 – last 18 if we rightly don’t include the Million Dollar Baby fluke – Oscar BP winners got in for acting here.) At least Parasite’s only weaknesses shown so far (post-critics phase) have been in this one category – acting. That’s survivable, so it’s still in play for the BP win.

– Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit not getting in for picture (where the last 22 Oscar BP winners besides Million Dollar Baby, Green Book included, did get in) pretty much confirms they’re not a thing for the win. These BAFTA misses (for picture and director) are Jojo’s first significant industry slip-ups.

– Once’s London critics miss was not indicative of weakness among the British voting block, clearly. Maybe it’ll turn out to be relevant in itself, by the end, but for now it just seems like that one inevitable fluke miss even the strongest front runners can sometimes get. Once, The Irishman and Joker are the only three movies to get picture, screenplay and acting nominations here, the ones connected to the strongest stats BAFTA have to offer.

Not stats-relevant, but Robbie in for Bombshell AND Once – just very, very weird… And Jessie Buckley in! So glad she’s Irish and at least some justice is being made to that wonderful performance, as a result! There seems to be a consensus forming around the directing five, with Todd Phillips always getting in alongside the four expected near-locks, which is a bit weird. But I’ve been predicting him for the DGA, as well, for a while now, so of course I’m not surprised. I had assumed he might miss at the Oscars, but, looking at this, maybe he’s just pretty safe himself. Maybe one of the other four actually misses. 🙂 Almodovar didn’t happen here, nor was Pain and Glory super-strong, so it looks like it won’t be a surprise BP/BD nominee. Same goes for other things…

Quick note on the 1917 – Million Dollar Baby late release comparison (which I see Sasha made earlier): M$B had ZERO BAFTA nominations. 1917 has NINE and STILL missed for acting and screenplay – and editing…

Updated stats scores table (top 20):

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 59 34 (61/36 would have been the maximum score; no London BP nomination, as mentioned earlier, and no Phoenix Film Critics Society BP win – that one went to Joker -, otherwise perfect run)

The Irishman 56 32 (also no Phoenix win of course, no Golden Globe win, Satellite misses for picture and director)

Marriage Story 50 29

Parasite 49 28

Joker 43 23

Jojo Rabbit 41 22

1917 31 19

Little Women 25 15

The Farewell 21 12

Knives Out 20 12

The Two Popes 20 12

Ford v Ferrari 17 9

Uncut Gems 15 9

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 13 7

Bombshell 11 6

Dolemite is My Name 10 6

Hustlers 10 6

Rocketman 10 6

Pain and Glory 9 6

Judy 9 5

Again, if Once finishes in sole first here (which seems almost guaranteed by this point), after AMPAS, the PGA and DGA announce their nominees, and the BFCA pick a winner, it should win BP at the end somehow, based on precedent. (Unless the last few years I’ve kept this table are misleading, which could certainly be the case.)

https://media0.giphy.com/media/eHRwLGsS6QDViZhp2P/giphy-downsized-medium.gif

Said Emily Blunt XD

If not Hanks, then I’d say DiCaprio would not be nominated on performance alone but will surely get carried by the strength of his film, so if we look toward other frontrunning films that have been showing signs of weakness lately, or at least not doing as consistently strong as OUATIH, I’d say Johansson for Marriage Story or the The Irishman guys split the vote in supporting and only one gets in. It could also be that Bombshell is weaker with AMPAS than precursors and Robbie gets in for OUATIH instead. But really, we’ll only know on nominations day. They might all get in this year.

Yes this though I’d say Taron moved up to top 2 because he hit the same precursors as Driver and Leo but GG win pushes him over them.

Silver lining of this year’s BAFTA nominations is MARGOT ROBBIE’s performance in OUATIH sneaking in SUPPORTING ACTRESS. That performance deserves every inch and letter of that “Supporting Actress” category. I also love the JANY TEMINE nod in COSTUME DESIGN for JUDY. I hope these nominations get to the Oscars.

I’m disappointed for the lack of love for PAIN AND GLORY and THE SOUVENIR. Of all the award giving bodies, I thought BAFTAs are going to right the lack of mentions for these two films. So, the Oscar chances for Pain and Glory are now bleak. Unless Sony Pictures Classics go head-to-head with the campaign of Neon for Parasite, they going to have to settle for just a lone Imternational Film nod. Too bad I thought Cold War’s showing last year would convert to more foreign language films getting more nominations as well the following years. This now makes the Oscar nominations in the main categories quite predictable.

No, if he’s out of race that’s in favor of Pryce or whoever is vying for the fifth spot. It’s about time to accept that GG+SAG noms put Taron in Top 5 and his GG win put him in Top 2. he ain’t stealing anyone’s spot, he earned his spot already. Now he cemented it.

Best Supporting Actress is an interesting category. I think Dern is locked to win, but beyond her nomination, it is a category that could go a lot of different ways. I think Lopez is still in and Robbie is strong for either of her films. ScarJo is hitting everywhere, but I still wonder if people are going to give her two nominations. She isn’t missing for Marriage Story so here is where they could try to spread the wealth beyond her.

I think the last two spots are wide open. Depending on how the voters embrace their respective movies, I could see the last two spots going to Kidman (Bombshell), McKenzie (JoJo Rabbit), or Pugh (Little Women). It could also be a place where some veterans get recognition – Annette Bening (The Report) or Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell). And I would never underestimate the power of Meryl (Little Women).

That’s for Oscars I mean

Nah the negative reviews are more from brits than Americans tbh

Ask birdman

Is that important?

I haven’t had a chance to see Little Women yet so I cannot comment on the merits, but I’m having a hard time reconciling it missing completely at SAG, but coming up as a big surprise at Oscar given the actors are the biggest voting block (I think). Seems in a week year for Best Actress and Supporting Actress, it should have hit in both categories at SAG if the actors liked it. And given its great cast, it seems it should have come up in ensemble. The actors went with Bombshell instead in said categories.

Little Women is gaining more buzz so i wouldn’t be shocked if it shows up. And I could see Gerwig getting in for screenplay and/or director to avoid an all male ballot, but the SAG misses are puzzling.

True but no real comp in Lead Actor. Plus Marion had a big Oscar snub two years before for Rust & Bone, I think she didn’t get the Oscar nod after SAG + Bafta + Golden Globe nominations.

I just knew about this, I thought her first BAFTA was a solo nomination

Ahhh I hadn’t looked at the below the line categories! I love this! I’ve been predicting it for production and costume design for ages and really really wanted to predict it for score but just hadn’t had the guts to put it in!

Yes.
I dont think they’ll go for 2 Irishman supporting actors.
I prefered Pesci in the film

What may favor Little Women and The Two Popes is also the fact that in every year under the new preferential ballot system, there are at least 3 non R rated movies nominated for BP. Jojo Rabbit is a lock, and Ford v Ferrari is almost a lock, so the only other possibilities are the movies I’ve mentioned before. I’m putting my money on Little Women, because I don’t think there will be 3 Netflix pics getting BP noms.

There was no diversity in these nominations-no Murphy, Erivo, Nyong’o, Lopez, Woodard, Awkwafina—come on?

As a European, hard to miss those news.

It will be very hard to take UK out of Europe. How? Push it into the Atlantic Ocean?

European Union is a totally different thing.

BAFTA or not, J.Lo is in trouble. Dern/Robbie/ScarJo/Pugh looking strong as of late.

I’m not sure if Grant counts (technically he got nominations from each group but I don’t think BFCA comedy actor is quite an actual award)

Well there’s always the Marion nom

Supporting Actress is extremely weak.

If Little Women really Phantom Threads everything, can Pugh get nominated?

Papamichael

I’m over the moon for her. This performance would win everything in a fair universe.

I think Tom Hanks is WAY more vulnerable than Leonardo DiCaprio. I think Hanks is getting in, but he’s not in a movie with broad support.

Yes, Margot Robbie got nominated for OUAT! That is what needs to happen at the Oscars

Denzel was in an Oscar Best Picture nominee (Fences), and yes, Casey Affleck was in a stronger movie as Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Picture and Director. However, after Denzel won SAG, everyone thought he might win his 3rd Oscar. However, Casey Affleck winning the BAFTA + GG combo sealed the deal, so the Brit Block is *real* and *fatal*. Not 100% of the time, but BAFTA+GG winner Nicole Kidman won over SAG+GG winner Renee Zellweger, Meryl Streep over Viola Davis, Olivia Colman over Glenn Close, etc. It has happened too many times to explain away as a coincidence. Also, Rocketman will also get at least another guaranteed nom for Best Song.

DiCaprio is 99 percent that contender that gets in everywhere but still misses the Oscar nomination.

That’s not big deal. I think they aren’t huge fans of Rob Richardson.

It also swept top honours at the BIFAs earlier in the season.

Not too much of a problem when Margot Robbie got that surprise double nomination.

Was missing link eligible?

She was brilliant..!

I still feel Little Women could pull a Phantom Thread and mark Picture and maybe even Director nominations.

I personally found 2POPES to be quite boring and uninteresting, but their performances were fantastic. I’d have no beef with them getting in even though there are other’s I’d prefer getting in… Especially over Hopkins since he has won in the past… And for the record I enjoyed PHANTOM THREAD haha.

These awards are my favorite every awards season mostly because they frequently deliver pleasant surprises among their nominees and this year is no exception. Jessie Buckley, both Pryce and Hopkins for Two Popes, Florence Pugh and the double, totally deserved nomination for Margot Robbie who I absolutely adore!! So good.

The creative ways these awards bodies are finding to overlook Lupita, it’s amazing. And inside the context of 20 white acting nominees, it’s all deeply embarrassing for BAFTA.

And of course the same witless conversations about meritocracy and subjectivity are still unfolding. Yes, we know people are just voting for what they thought was best. That’s part of what’s alarming, year in year out! Yes, we know tokenism is bad. In an industry where whiteness is *this* dominant as a narrative and commercial force, I don’t know what else nominations for Lupita and the Parasite cast and Eddie Murphy could BE except small (numbers-wise) interruptions of the norm.

It feels like the same conversation unfolds every year, and the discourse still focuses on critiquing wokeness, which just centers even *more* white perspectives. I’m tired.

So Marriage Story is only looking at 4 noms now (3 acting and script). And even though Jojo didn’t hit Best Pic, it did great below the lines. The fact that BAFTA still only does 5 pic nominees was always gonna leave it out. The films they nominated for pic and Director are the top contenders and have been for a month. But it still scored an acting nom, costume, production design, score, script and editing. That’s about as good as it was gonna get not being in the top 5.

Looks like this may boost Little Women too, even though it was getting boosted anyway on its own after a rough start to the awards season. And yes, these noms display the chinks in 1917’s armor that we all knew were there anyway…the same ones that were there with Dunkirk.

And it’s amazing to me that people are still getting shocked when Joker shows up. The film has hit every guild except for costume thus far. And will be one the top three films with the most Oscar noms along with Irishman and Hollywood. In fact, Irishman may underperform come nominations day. At least I’m hoping it does.

And a final note, why only 4 animated noms? Missing Link is…missing. That seemed like a British shoe in.

But that’s what happened to the last Hollywood focus’d frontrunner LaLa Land. I believe 1917 and Parasite have a better shot because of the preferential ballot. PGA will be a major player as always.

Joker is making a major imprint on the industry right now, studios are trying to adjust to them which is always a good place to be in. You can obviously see this happening.

Best Actor is looking very — DiCaprio, Driver, Egerton, Phoenix-y

Fighting for that last spot are: Pryce/Bale/Banderas

That casting award would be a good addition and they don’t get nearly enough credit

You got to take into account the strength of JOKER. Close was THE WIFE’s only nominatioh.

Two Popes is in that thang. I’m liking these nominations but the Margot Robbie fangirl’n is a typo right? Where is Lupita?

I think she might be viewed as too much of a try hard.

Gyllenhall and Adams were the worst snubs.

What in the WHITE mess.

What Latino actors should they have nominated this year instead?

I agree your top 6 are pretty safe.

If even AMPAS nominated it, it has to qualify as mainstream.

I believe in OUATIH win, since the biggest branch of voters are actors and the movie is filled with stars.

It is also hard for a movie to win BP with no acting nominations

I still don’t understand why Curzon decided to release Parasite in the UK two days before the Oscars. What if Parasite wins nothing except International Feature Film? Then the buzz dies. Right now, it has a huge amount of buzz going for it *before* the Oscars, but after, everyone will have moved on to the spring releases. I think it’s a big mistake. Also, Parasite made #1 on Guardian’s US top 50 movies of 2019 list, but it didn’t make the UK list as it was technically ineligible due to being a 2020 UK release film. Imagine having to wait until 2029 to see if it makes the UK Best of the Decade list because it was released one month after the end of the decade?

Not even Erivo, who is a Brit.

Taron is in for sure now. Bale/Pryce/Banderas for the 5th slot barring any unforeseen circumstances.

lol Like always

OUATIH seems positioned to do it with maybe a split with Mendes.

It is still not winning Picture at the oscars

Right. My GOLD DERBY bet is still on Bale… I removed Banderas for Egerton after the globe win/SAG nom combo.

never seen that movie. heard about it but never seen it.

Seems that way. My money’s on Bale but since he’ll never win this year and he already has before I’d like to see Banderas or Pryce get in.

Ahem, most people didn’t watch those movies so only movie buffs would know.

I think it did quite well, considering.
Bale is not a BAFTA fave. And it got in Cinematography, which just surprised with ASC, as well.

I’m rooting for Lupita.

what a career. many forget he was a child actor like Bale and Leo. Look at them now!

Perhaps. and he’s certainly Netflix’s best bet for nomination since DeNiro is dead and Pryce is iffy. I’m just weighting in pros and cons for every candidate.

Actress is easier. It’s going to be Renee/Scarlett/Charlize/Saoirse + Diversity (question is only which one).

The “creation of the universe” scene from The Tree of Life. Cinema didn’t get more epic than that in this decade.

IMO in won in the only 3 categories it really deserved to be nominated in in the first place… Give or take song.

Right… It just keeps growing.

I just really think that “The Farewell” hurt its precursor chances a lot with either being submitted for or categorized as a foreign language film when it’s not eligible for that category at the Oscars. I think a lot of these voting bodies used that as a way to honor the film while letting good-at-best films like Jojo Rabbit and worse-the-more-I-think-about-it films like Joker get in the top categories.

Driver is not missing. He has 8 years of obsessive New York media marketing machinery behind him.

Black Panther also won three Oscars. They clearly liked it.

after the embarrassment that was BP nomination in Picture that was entirely forced onto AMPAS by screeching wokesters, Joker getting actual industry love and respect is a good thing because it’s much better movie and if CBM was to get nominated, this is the one, not BP.

Damn. I’m pwn’d.

BAFTA recognized Joker for being great and they recognized Black Panther for being an American joke and rightfully snubbed the latter. Too bad that #Oscarssomale brouhaha will prevent Philips nom (I expect DGA and Directors Branch to chicken out and give Gerwig another nom they were pressed to give like last time) but as long as it hits all other major nominations and wins at least Actor, I won’t complain.

I think that’s kind of my point: all those technical elements should factor into a young voters mind. Even if it’s a stodgy genre it’s done freshly

I don’t use stats that much in terms of precursors. I often think about what genres work well, think of where the actors or directors are in their careers and use the reviews in context. If a movie is getting nomInated all over the place I’m not going to ignore it but I’m not mathematically minded so I don’t go by exact stats of how many times SAG or BaFTA nominee has got the Oscar not only bc I wouldn’t be as good but bc I don’t find that fun. I love Oscar season bc I love movies not math.

“JOKER is officially stronger than people give it credit it seems.” Yep. I think we knew that for a long time thanks to below the line industry support but now it’s much more apparent.

Yay for ScarJo getting the double nod… Looking good for her! Ditto for Margot although that just means a mystery slot for Oscar noms.

Glad to see Pugh. She was one of my favorite parts of LW.

JOKER is officially stronger than people give it credit it seems. BAFTA refused to jump on the BLACK PANTHER bandwagon last year despite giving it VFX (barf!) It shows they take thisone as seriously as it should be taken.

TWO POPES got in the actors who are definitely deserving but is it just a BAFTA thing… They liked it but not enough for BP so?

OUATIH missing cinematography is surprising but all the nominees are very deserving.

Taron is a lock for the nod now it seems. Not good for Antonio or Bale. But FvF is definitely NOT a BAFTA thing.

Good for BOOKSMART… maybe WGA isn’t a fluke.

Score is between 1917 and JOKER. No need for the other 3 nominations haha.

Overall I’m pleased. And OSCARS please follow suit and MAKE A GOD DAMN CASTING AWARD!

Phoenix is winning the crown. whether he’ll sweep (likely) or lose one (if Taron wins BAFTA though I think they’ll go with Phoenix) doesn’t matter. Joker is getting so much love this far and everyone really wants him to win (US critics aside). So I agree that Taron is Top 2-3 so anyone who thinks he’s stealing Banderas spot should think again. The last spot is between Banderas, Bale, Pryce and maaaaybe even Sandler.

Robbie should win for Bombshell, but won’t. She was the only likable character.

But he also might be his film’s only above-the-line nomination. He could be #3 but I don’t think he’s ahead of Driver. But it’s all hard to say because right now it’s extremely difficult to imagine Phoenix losing.

Especially with nursing home scenes.

Came here to post #baftassowhite, and of course multiple people have already said this lol

Surely Robbie Supp. Actress x 2 should be the headline here?

Silver lining of this year’s BAFTA nominations is MARGOT ROBBIE’s performance in OUATIH sneaking in SUPPORTING ACTRESS. That performance deserves every inch and letter of that “Supporting Actress” category. I also love the JANY TEMINE nod in COSTUME DESIGN for JUDY. I hope these nominations get to the Oscars.

I’m disappointed for the lack of love for PAIN AND GLORY and THE SOUVENIR. Of all the award giving bodies, I thought BAFTAs are going to right the lack of mentions for these two films. So, the Oscar chances for Pain and Glory are now bleak. Unless Sony Pictures Classics go head-to-head with the campaign of Neon for Parasite, they going to have to settle for just a lone Imternational Film nod. Too bad I thought Cold War’s showing last year would convert to more foreign language films getting more nominations as well the following years. This now makes the Oscar nominations in the main categories quite predictable.

I haven’t seen either film so I will take your word for it. Stats-wise Pugh and Kidman are pretty even, the fifth slot is probably down to them.

The best we’re truly nominated!

Unreadable. Fonts too small and Black on blue is not enough contrast.

No Erivo hurts. WTF?

It’s not his career best, oh come on.

You’re so right, sorry. That white skirt looked bomb in her!
I really want Nicole Kidman nominated this year. THEY BETTER DO SOME MAGIC in supporting actress!

I have a hunch (probably clouded by wishful thinking) that Banderas will somehow make the cut at the Oscars, stats be damned. If I’m being honest I would vote for him before I would vote for anyone else in Best Actor this season, not because I didn’t like / love the other performances but simply because I considered Banderas’s the best in 2019.

What in the world are you talking about??? She twirled, she danced, she laughed, she put her feet up on a movie theater chair in defiance of public decency. Streep herself could only hope to achieve such immortality.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f771826f2fc04413a7f30047d838eb72413951ba0eabafbaab4be915bc05784.gif

1917 doesn’t have writing nor acting nominations at Bafta and if it couldn’t get them there (home turf), it will have a hard time getting either and definitely both at the Oscars, too.

It doesn’t mean it can’t win BP at both the Baftas and the Oscars, but I think it definitely makes it difficult enough not to qualify for clear frontrunner status just yet.

It looks like Antonio Banderas is now out of the race in favour of the Rocketman guy. I’ll say that again. The 2019 Cannes winner is replaced by Taron Egerton. Crazy.
All the rest of nominations I’m pretty comfortable with, except Robbie nominated twice. Surely there was room for another actress there.

I kind of agree. If Irishman truly is fading a bit, Pacino is vulnerable, since two nominations in the same category for Irishman is a bit much (legends or not)

The obvious answer would be Tom Hanks, because that usually happens with him, you know;)

Of course!

Oh, I meant I’m predicting Ronan for a nomination, not the win.

Oh, so funny.

I would rather that slot goes to Awkwafina or Lupita though. As much as I love Buckley! Also it makes for #BAFTASOWHITE, which is actually really typical of BAFTA.