It was 1999 when Oscarwatch had its first contest for predicting the Oscars, although I’m not entirely sure how we managed it back then. Now we have a much easier form. Oscar nominations drop on Monday morning early.
Do your worst (best):
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I already submitted and won’t resubmit, but I accidentally said I’d been visiting since 2011 (it’s 2001), and chickened out of predicting the following:
1. Scorsese out in Director
2. Hollywood out of one or both sounds
3. Irishman out of editing
And I’m probably wrong for betting against JLo and Steenburgen, lol.
So I’m on the record… Here are my official predictions (in alphabetical order):
PICTURE
– 1917
– Ford v Ferrari
– The Irishman
– Jojo Rabbit
– Joker
– Little Women
– Marriage Story
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Parasite
DIRECTOR
– Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
– Sam Mendes, 1917
– Todd Phillips, Joker
– Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
– Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ACTOR
– Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Adam Driver, Marriage Story
– Taron Egerton, Rocketman
– Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
– Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
ACTRESS
– Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
– Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
– Lupita Nyong’o, Us
– Charlize Theron, Bombshell
– Renee Zellweger, Judy
SUPPORTING ACTOR
– Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
– Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
– Song Kang Ho, Parasite
– Joe Pesci, The Irishman
– Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
– Laura Dern, Marriage Story
– Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
– Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
– Florence Pugh, Little Women
– Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
– The Irishman
– Jojo Rabbit
– Joker
– Little Women
– The Two Popes
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
– 1917
– Knives Out
– Marriage Story
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Parasite
ANIMATED FEATURE
– Frozen II
– How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
– I Lost My Body
– Missing Link
– Toy Story 4
ANIMATED SHORT
– Dcera (Daughter)
– Hair Love
– Kitbull
– The Physics of Sorrow
– Sister
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
– American Factory
– Apollo 11
– For Sama
– Honeyland
– One Child Nation
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
– After Maria
– Fire in Paradise
– Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
– Stay Close
– Walk Run Cha-Cha
INTERNATIONAL
– Atlantics
– Les Miserables
– Pain and Glory
– Parasite
– Those Who Remained
LIVE ACTION SHORT
– Brotherhood
– Little Hands
– Miller & Son
– Nefta Football Club
– Refugee
CINEMATOGRAPHY
– 1917
– Ford v Ferrari
– The Irishman
– Joker
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
COSTUMES
– Dolemite Is My Name
– The Irishman
– Joker
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Rocket Man
FILM EDITING
– Ford v Ferrari
– The Irishman
– Marriage Story
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Parasite
MAKEUP & HAIR
– Bombshell
– Dolemite Is My Name
– Joker
– Judy
– Rocketman
PRODUCTION DESIGN
– 1917
– The Irishman
– Jojo Rabbit
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Parasite
VISSUAL EFFECTS
– 1917
– Avengers: Endgame
– The Irishman
– The Lion King
– Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
SCORE
– 1917
– Joker
– Little Women
– Marriage Story
– Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
SONG
– Glasgow (Wild Rose)
– I’m Standing With You (Breakthrough)
– Into the Unknown (Frozen II)
– (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again (Rocketman)
– Stand Up (Harriet)
SOUND MIXING
– 1917
– Ford v Ferrari
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Rocketman
– Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
SOUND EDITING
– 1917
– Avengers: Endgame
– Ford v Ferrari
– Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
– Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
NGNG:
* Jamie Bell, “Rocketman” and Roman Griffin Davis, “Jojo Rabbit” for Supporting Actor (yes, cathegory fraud, loke O’Neil in “Paper Moon” and Osment in “The Sixth Sense”)
* Frances Conroy, Supporting Actress for “Joker”
* Edward Norton, Best Actor for “Motherless Brooklyn”
PS: “Rocketman” for Best Picture and Pedro Almodóvar, “Dolor y Gloria”/ “Pain and Glory” for Best Director aren’t NGNG. They’re LOCKS!
We can’t really even compare it though because The Hurt Locker released in summer and couldn’t take much advantage of an awards season box office bump. I think it would have added so much more box office if it weren’t out of theaters. I don’t think it would have been 1917 huge but probably 60-70 total. Maybe more. But doubtful less.
Not really I’m talking big films like 1917. I would still not be impressed if I watched The Fish Fucker movie in the theaters. I actually would hate it more because I would’ve wasted over ten dollars to see it.
Voters rather put a screener in and play it on their huge tv then shelp to the theaters and watch a film.
NGNG
Martin Scorsese NOT nominated at Director
Rocketman, 6 or 7 noms, but no Best Picture (Actor, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Make up, Costume, maybe Production Design or Cinematography)
Pain and Glory, nominated for Score.
No BFCA prediction contest?
Me too. I know I won’t win so I just went with everything I loved, whether they are in the conversation or not.
I found it too frenetic to enjoy, I am not a Sandler fan but his work it in was very good IMO
I will be at work. It will take me around one hour to start making damage control. Hahaha
The Shape of Water sends you regards
Just finished the 5th 2019 Masterpiece I have seen so far… top 5 of 2019 now (5 masterpieces)
1. Pain and Glory
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Us
5. Midsommar
A thing I noticed that end this age of screeners a big movie that is best appreciated on the big screen hasn’t won Best Picture.
Crazy that I’ve come to a point in predicting these things to where I feel comfortable thinking Banderas will knock out Bale.. or someone else for that matter. Either way in order to win big you gotta take some kind of risk. Good luck everyone!
Picture: Once Upon a Tme in Hollywood, Parasite, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Joker, Marriage Story, Little Women (9th-Ford v Ferrari)
Director: I am going with the DGA five even though I know that the correspondence is usually 4/5. Bong, Tarantino, Mendes, Scorsese, Waititi
Actor: Bale, DiCaprio, Driver, Egerton, Phoenix
Actress: Awkwafina, Johansson, Ronan, Theron, Zellweger
Supporting Actor: Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, Pitt, Song
Supporting Actress: Dern, Johansson, Lopez, Pugh, Robbie
I picked the usual contenders for screenplay. I think I chose Two Popes and Booksmart over the other possibilities.
I have supporting actor, too, but I don’t really know. It could also be Hopkins or Dafoe.
Agree completely. It’s almost as bad as The Irishman but at least The Irishman had Pesci . Sandler was terrible .
For the hundredth time, Cynthia Erivo is not known AT ALL over here in the UK.
I predicted Uncut Gems to be the surprise of the year and show up in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor. Otherwise went with rather safe choices. I really want to win one of these, so AMPAS, please, if you could…
Here is my prediction (nominees are in no particular order):
Picture: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, OUATIH, Parasite, FVF, Knives Out. Well it’s basically all of the PGA nominees. If the Academy goes for a nine, Knives Out is off of the list; if they go for an eight, FVF is off of the list.
Director: Bong, Tarantino, Scorsese, Mendes, Phillips. I don’t think they are gonna give Gerwig a second nomination though it’s not impossible. I think the weak one of the quintet is Phillips cuz Waititi got a DGA nod, but I went with Phillips instead of Waititi cuz I have a hunch Joker will overperform on Monday morning.
Actor: Phoenix, DiCaprio, Driver, Egerton, Bale. Pryce can definitely sneak in and replace Bale (Pryce is nominated by the BAFTA), but FVF has bigger chance to be a BP nominee, so I’ll go with Bale (plus, Bale is nominated by SAG-AFTRA). Sadly, I don’t think Banderas has any chance.
Actress: Johansson, Zellweger, Theron, Erivo, Ronan. It’s difficult to decide between Erivo and Nyong’o, but I think the early release of Us and its genre can hurt Lupita’s chances, so I’ll go with Erivo instead. I think the Academy will show some love for Little Women and Ronan is the pilot of that film, so a nomination is within reach. I can see Nyong’o gets in and Ronan is snubbed tho.
Supp. Actor: Pacino, Pitt, Pesci, Hanks, Song. I think Hanks’ emotional Globe speech will endear him to Academy members. From what I perceive, the American audience at large (and I’m sure the Academy members too) love Parasite, and if it’s going big and becomes a threat, they are going to nominate Song Kang-ho, a well-respected South Korean actor. I do wish we can add another slot to fit Hopkins in.
Supp. Actress: Dern, Johansson, Robbie, Pugh, Lopez. Seriously, the only sure nominee is Dern. Not sure if they’re gonna give Johansson two nods in 1 night; Robbie is likely in, but for Bombshell or OUATIH? Is it possible she will split the votes and not get nominated at all? Not sure if there are enough passion for Pugh (she gets a BAFTA nom tho); Lopez seems to be quite popular and well liked among actors, she hits all the important precursors except for BAFTA, but I don’t think it will hurt her chances. Unfortunately, not enough room for Shuzhen, Cho Yeo-jeong, and Lee Jeung-eun.
Adapted Screenplay: Irishman, Jojo, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes. It’s a hit or miss between TTW and Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. The former wasn’t available for WGA but it got nominated at Globes and BAFTA.
Original Screenplay: 1917, Knives Out, Marriage Story, OUATIH, Parasite. I went with the WGA 5 but replace Booksmart with OUATIH.
The Hurt Locker had the first female Director thing going for it and a war that loomed large in the zeitgeist ; few voters are familiar or even care about WW1 (especially Americans)
Fun fact- 1917 made over DOUBLE of the total box office of the most recent war movie BP winner The Hurt Locker in its first weekend.
I’m sure A Star is Born was still in a category
I’m too lazy to check but where the films that made the shortlisted categories the only options to choose from?
I think it’s possible. There are a lot of different kinds of sound in that film and if they love it they could totally tick down categories. I ended up putting it in both but it is definitely not a 100% safe prediction, especially since it did miss sound at BAFTA (though I haven’t looked up the stats to see how much that matters). I put it in both because if it only makes one I’m not really sure which it will be so I figured I’d predict both or neither.
I have Once Upon a Time in Hollywood getting into both sound categories. Thoughts?
Thanks. Somehow I clicked Adam Driver twice in the same category, so there’s no way it can work out well.
er… excuse me? When we are months in advance, we judge the potential of the films, in which categories they do stand a chance. SPC is launching FYC in 10 categories. Any given year, P&G is competitive in…
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Editing
Production Design
Score
Sound Editing
International Film
… so they sacrificed 2 (Sound Editing and Supporting Actor, right away, in the FYC). How many noms a film actually get is determined by how they are embraced in the race… but the array of films deserving of a nom at any given category is around 20 to 30 easily, and it is the evolution of the race what determines what and who will end being nominated. There is no better example than this year’s actor race. But consider how many great performances, worthy of a nom at least, aren’t in the conversation because the film bombed critically and/or comercially (example, Penelope Cruz in Everybody Knows)
Thanks Ryan!
Finally you have realized that your early predictions about Pain & Glory were too many. 7 or 8 nominations you predicted at first and you said that you were not flipando but the reality is way different, always has been. Anyway It has been great to see your devotion about this movie enhancing the real chances of Pain & Glory in this year’s Oscar race. And I really hope it gets more than one Oscar nomination, but It will be hard to achieve in this fantastic year of great performances and amazing achievements in directing. I will still cross fingers for Banderas and Almodovar in their crowed categories. Anything can happen though.
I did not add Cruz for Pain and Glory since she has been nominated for the Goya and the Satellite, and also Julieta Serrano is equally deserving of praise.
I’ll doublecheck and let you guys know later today.
I’m pretty sure Ryan said one year it’s fine to just fill them in again and they’ll just take the latest one. Not sure if that’s still true – if I make a misclick I generally just hope it’ll be a lucky accident (it rarely is).
Still weird.
5:18 a.m. — 5:41 a.m.
I found a mis-click in my predictions when I got the email confirmation. Anyone know of any way to go back and edit them before Monday?
Just came back from seeing Uncut Gems. If that film earns one nomination from the Academy on Monday I may never see another movie ever again!
I think we never see clearest picture of true potential how competitive this Oscar race would be had academy not turned delusional been in such mad hurry with shortest timeframe ever between award season start and Oscar noms handed out.
This could be biggest untold fun up of awards season.
4
5 huge snubs look for best picture :
The Gentleman
Just Mercy
Pain and Glory
Uncut Gems
Rocketman
Oh as it done all awards season Joker will surprise with 9 Oscar nominations ..without best director .
Ford vs. Ferrari will sneak in best picture but fun me dead it ought be lead contender for sure .
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won’t get 13 Oscar noms but 12.
And Scorsese no guaranteed lock for best director given pedigree quality other filmmakers and Netflix will underperform in quantity nominations total and per film
I would add Best Actress and Supporting Actress for Sienna Miller and Christina Hendricks in American Woman, Best Cinematography for Long Day’s Journey Into Night, Best Actress for Gabriela Cartol and Best International Film for The Chambermaid, all sorts of things for The Last Black Man in San Francisco, and I too throw in a shout out to Penelope Cruz, but not for Everybody Knows…..for Best Supporting Actress in Pain and Glory.
Does anyone know WHAT TIME the nominees will be announced Monday morning? I’m on the west coast and usually wake up early for them (I think it was around 5am, but I seem to remember last year it being a really weird, specific time like 5:13am…)
The Chinese masterpiece An Elephant Sitting Still should be part of the International Film nominees, but China did not submit it, presumably because its portrait of contemporary China is utterly bleak. It is one of the greatest films of the decade, in my opinion. The suicide of the director Hu Bo is a terrible loss.
Good call on Everybody Knows — the movie was much better than the reviews, and Cruz was excellent.
De Niro’s performance did not land with me, because, de-aging technology aside, he was simply too old to pull it off. They were able to make him look younger, though I thought the effect was off-putting and distracting, but he still moved and had the mannerisms of a much older man. It wasn’t as much of a problem with Pesci and Pacino because they were starting the movies as older men to begin with. Maybe a lot of other people had the same reaction I did and that’s why De Niro isn’t showing up.
Uncut Gems must be nominated in every category because I said so. If it isn’t, I will be suing the Academy.
The problem with Bombshell is that it’s a mediocre film to begin with. The performances especially of Theron are its best asset. The actors are so committed to their characters. But make-up could only go so far. The screenplay really has nothing new to say about the themes and issues it like to tell. That’s why I would really love for Robbie to be nominated for OUATIH over her performance here.
I’m not aiming to argue with you (it’s all subjective, of course) but I just hated The Laundromat. In fact it was the worst film I’ve seen since at least Green Book, and possibly even earlier.
It flopped at the box office. Even with acting at BAFTA, they snubbed Kidman. And supporting actress is not a busy category.
Knives Out is such a fun film to have in the lineup. But I do have a hard time seeing enough people listing it as their #1 to get it into BP. PGA did it, but they have guaranteed 10 slots. If it had shown up in SAG Ensemble, then there would be an argument for it. But ultimately I think ti will just be a screenplay nominee.
I have a feeling a big shocker is coming for Supporting Actor. It’s really been the same 5 men leading the pack…and that seems too neat and tidy. If Parasite really is a film with passion behind it, might the actors try to throw their weight behind it with a surprise nomination for Song Kang Ho? I suppose Hopkins is the vulnerable one for missing SAG, but if there are some folks who feel “required” to watch The Irishman rather than “excited” to watch The Irishman (and there are) than one of Pesci/Pacino could be the shocking omission.
The thing is, there is no real narrative for DeNiro to win Best Actor. Instead we have an absolutely crazy field of contenders for that category. Including exciting choices that people have become passionate about. For instance, people have fallen in love with performances from Banderas, Egerton, Pryce, and Murphy. And they want to make room for them. So they are NOT nominating DeNiro who they cant see winning and figure “everyone will nominate him, so Im putting in my pick instead”. DeNIro is likely sitting around 8th place right now
But Cynthia Ervio is a very popular British performer. So BAFTA would have seem obvious.
No, I don’t think so. The Irishman is still going incredibly strong in terms of landing nominations.
I doubt it. If Taika gets nominated for anything it’s screenplay (not sold 100% on a director nod).
I´m not really into predicting every category, but I always like to predict how many nominations the assumed Best Picture candidates will get. I ended up with the following ranking:
I predict that “OUATIH” and “The Irishman” will lead the nominations with 10 each.
“1917” close behind with 9.
“Parasite” and “Joker” with 7 each, “Jojo Rabbit”, “Marriage Story” and “Little Women” each 6.
(I´d really love to see “Knives Out” in the mix, but predicting and hoping are two different things, right?)
Especially this year with the rushed calendar right after New Years.
Philips was never going to be nominated for comicbook movie by Directors. if Waititi didn’t have a movie this year, it would be Mangold, Baumbach, etc tkaing Philips place. Directors are snobs like that.
it’s funny how awards season has long stretches of dry spell where nothing happens and then 2-3 major awards drop back to back or even the same day.
Anyway you slice it, poor Hanks is a goner again. 🙂 🙂 🙂
The bombing of Bombshell. It over performed at SAG. But it failed to make PGA. No ACE. Only got nods for Theron and Robbie and make-up at BAFTA. Kidman snubbed – and supporting actress is not a busy category. No screenplay.
I think so too. I’m just not sure what to make of Farewell’s support in the Academy or which black actors if any actually have the support this go-around. Hell, never discount Kathy Bates.
Cynthia Erivo is pretty popular there – so the snub was a red flag. J-Lo could end up suffering Jennifer Aniston’s fate where she got nods from BFCA, GG, SAG and got snubbed by BAFTA and Oscar. Both lone nominees.
Cause everything is so rushed and unpredictable, I threw in a couple of wild cards in my acting predictions. Let’s see if they pay off.
interesting!
Erivo is a headscratcher. Tubman is an American figure, so maybe they didn’t care. On the other hand, it’s more of a good-on-paper, pat-yourself-on-the-back nomination than something supported by major precursor wins or passion for the film or performance. Still… I cannot predict zero black acting nominees to be blunt. What may happen is I predict Lupita based on passion and prior wins for her and Peele, or else Eddie Murphy, just to feel like I covered my bases. I wonder if JLo could be snubbed for Zhao without Farewell getting script and/or Awkwafina noms. The Indie Spirits nominated Zhao without Awkwafina, but they always play games. Also, Lupita isn’t strong on paper, with genre bias and the nature of the performance even though what she does is quite unique. And Awkwafina is very good and emotional in the film, but the role itself doesn’t scream Oscar, and obviously the film isn’t having the precursor run of a film like Room, so it could get anywhere from 0 to 3 Oscar noms overall.
But Erivo got shut out at BAFTA – considering she would have been a hometown favorite. Same thing with Bale.
Little Women did get Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay nods at BAFTA as well as 2 techs. Whereas FvF only got 3 tech nods. And hometown favorite Bale was snubbed.
Hanks out, Shia in. Assuming we see lots of NGNGs. 🙂
It’s on Monday, isn’t it?
Oscar nomination morning is my favorite day of every awards year. As Sasha has said, we are largely flying blind this year. There are several consensus nominees in every category, as there are every year based on precursor strength, but with the rushed calendar, we don’t know how much impact the converging precursors will have. Will the Globes have more impact as the only major precursor to announce while the ballots were still outstanding? Will BAFTA and/or SAG matter more based on the voter overlap? What about films that played well to BAFTA but not SAG, like Two Popes and Little Women, or the reverse, like Bombshell? It’s naive to think we won’t see a lot of upsets next week given the large slate of contenders, competing interests, and quirky calendar.
Yeah, editing, like Parasite at BAFTA. Though the movie is slow, and I believe Cuaron himself was the editor, so you can see why they didn’t throw him another nom for it. I feel like LW is stronger then FvF though because above-the-line support is more important than techs even if it’s not one of the juggernauts in the top categories.
Nah. Marriage Story made PGA, WGA and ACE. Driver, along with ScarJo, Dern, Baumbach (for OS) have made it where they needed too for the film. And Phoenix, Driver, DiCaprio, Egerton have all hit SAG and BAFTA.
Indeed. I’m sure of Renee/Scarlett/Charlize. Ronan isn’t as sure for she won nothing (unlike Awkwafina and Lupita) but she has Brit Block and movie peaking at the right time plus LW snatching some above the lines beside her (Supporting, Adapted, maybe Picture, maybe Director). Lupita has critics awards and SAG nom but she’s also her movie’s only nominee so that’s tricky. Erivo doesn’t even have wins, it’s just her due to historical importance of her role. Finally, Awkwafina has Globe win but her movie’s faded from other above the lines. So I’d say, 4 and 5 could be virtually any of these 4 actress combos.
At this moment of the race, from what I have seen, these are the snubs (titles or names that should have been in conversation, in a fair world, but for some reason or another, they went under the radar). This, obviously, only from what I have seen, and in my honest opinion.
Penélope Cruz, Best Lead Actress, Everybody Knows (the movie bombed critically and comercially in the USA, back in winter)
Some Time Later, Original Screenplay (not eligible)
Don’t F*ck with Cats: Hunting of an Internet Killer, Original Screenplay, Documentary (Netflix made a 3 hours miniseries of what could have been a 2 hours doc)
Anna Paquin, Supporting Actress, The Irishman (SAG Ensemble aside, Netflix hasn’t even submitted her along the cast)
I actually liked The Laundromat enough, to think both Streep (Lead) and Oldman and Banderas (Supporting) could have been in the conversation. Yes, the film has flaws, but still it is a pretty good one and the starring trio was charming and funny…
Atlantics has been in the conversation for International Film but certainly… cinematography should have been, too. Talking of which…
Shadow is simply amazing visually… Zhang Yimou as Director, Cinematography, Costume, Production Design, Score… just watch the trailer and see for yourself how deserving this film is in technicals.
The LEGO Movie 2 is actually pretty, pretty good and I feel it should be nominated for Animated (and for Song… Catchy Song is exactly what Oscar for Best Original Song was designed for… a song that is integral part of the story and even makes the story advance… plus is multilayered and meta… and disturbingly and annoyingly fun… as it should be)
Probably there are more, but those are the ones that come quickly to my mind.
he should be locked with Phoenix. I think Leo and Taron are good to go too, and then we have wide open 5th spot.
I hope Tom Hanks does not get snubbed. I almost left out Ronan but decided not to. I might change my predictions several times. These categories seem so difficult. I can’t wait to see what they choose.
Driver ain’t missing. Fading or not, the film is still locked for a BP+Screenplay+2 other acting nominations, the entire film is actor-driven, and his performance is actually one of the most talked about/hyped aspects of it, ergo he wouldn’t only be getting in because of the film’s strength but because his performance has passion behind it.
They snubbed Kidman…to nominate Robbie twice.:) 🙂 🙂 yes, we all laughed at Jlo because of it but her snub was totally expected. Kidman’s was not. She should have been BAFTA thing (unlike JLo) but wasn’t.
yeah, someone said that we should pay more attention to below the line support than “over performance” in acting catgeories. they show real strength. Didn’t Roma miss something important that signaled it could lose Picture despite Yalizta/La Talavera surprise?
LOL if Hanks gets snubbed again.
I have a nagging feeling that Driver could miss now that Marriage Story is fading and it’s clear that everyone who isn’t Phoenix is an also-run. If that happend, I could see Pryce getting in (Netflix’s other Actor champ) on the strength of Brit push, though they would do better rallying around Taron (who won Globe while Pryce won nothing and isn’t in a stronger movie than Taron’s either). I hope not but Marriage story downfall cannot be ignored. Dern is it’s only win from the look of it.
In the acting races, I find it plausible that some people miss. Their nomination isn’t really supported by conventional thinking, only their precursor strength. These include: Lopez (although she already missed BAFTA), Hanks (he looks to be his film’s only nomination, if it misses screenplay, and he’s not even threatening to win, so could miss), Taron Egerton (he seems to be having a good moment, but Rocketman looks weak and the category is packed, so might miss anyway), DiCaprio (who of course stars in the presumed BP frontrunner but doesn’t seem individually strong, and could get left out if Hollywood underperforms with AMPAS).
Picture
Director
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Song
International Film
I think those were the ones I guessed.
I think that 2 Jo’s are 5-6 the order depending on who you talk with (whether Guild noms are valued over GG/BAFTA or the other way around). But 1917, OUATIH, Parasite and The Irishman are above Jo’s (order depends on preference) while Marriage Story is below them (#7) and then come FvF, LW, etc
Ok, experts, I have a question. Every year, someone who hits all precursors misses with AMPAS. Do you think it’ll happen this year or because 5th spots are so wide open, precursor hitters will show up but 5th spots will bring some surprises?
I went very cynical so that I’ll have one kernel of joy if my picks are right!
Let´s wait and see! 😉
So you did!
I guess that failing to show up with Guilds that are not acting and BAFTA to an extent may be how things are now close to oscar nominations. we’ll see. overlap is never 100% anyway so…
yep, Kang could la Talavera his way.
Yeah. Ad Astra has absolutely bombed with awards season. It’s only (very slim) hope is Production Design. It isn’t coming anywhere near Best Picture.
The list can be found by googling “Critics Choice Nominees”. Virtually everything is nominated as they have so many slots in each category, some notable exceptions are Knives Out, The Two Popes, Taron Egerton, Taika Waititi.
DGA and Branch snubbed Coogler despite pressure to nominate him so Philips was not going to get in. There;s no PR incentive to nominate him unlike Coogler nom and yet they passed on that one no problem.
unless they didn’t care for the movie. which seems to be the case. harriet flopped in UK. So did Us. hence no noms.
that seems to be the thing this season. eahc category has a wide open spot so maybe this time precursor hitters won’t be bumped.
But did it fade in time? The buzz on it could have still been strong. I’d say if the Oscars were later, it would get less. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it still got a few extra nominations.
Not necessarily. He along with Pitt, Pacino, Pesci all have Globe, SAG, BAFTA nods. There is still a slot for a surprise nominee without bumping anyone.
AMPAS directors. The DGA usually isn’t.
This season is just terrible, everything comes so quickly! The only peaceful time this year was around Christmas.
although I haven’t seen it yet (it premieres in Portugal Jan 23, not sure if it will show where I live though) 1917 seems like is becoming the juggernaut of the season.
Then: Once Upon, The Irishman, Parasite and Joker.
Below this line, Marriage Story, JoJo Rabbit, Ford V Ferrari, Little Women.
Director and actor categories are too packed. whoever gets left out it will be shocking
the critics awards are Sunday @ 7pm/CW. Where is the nomination list? Who’s nominated?
De Niro was in 2 of the biggest films of the year The irishman and Joker he should get nominated for both in my opinion
i understand WHY he didnt get nominated for the SAG because he was getting LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
BAFTAS are a joke they never nominate De Niro at the Baftas like that its like the Great Denzel Washington hes never been nominated at the Baftas EVER
So at the OSCARS for the 5th slot its Oscars am expecting him to be in it hes better than Al Pacino in the Irishman
How can Al Pacino get in and No De Niro? if the Oscars dont want to Nominate all 3 i would just nominate Pesci and De Niro
Joe Pesci should win Best Supporting Actor but Brad Pitt will win
No Eddie Murphy AGAIN
JAMIE FOX Should be nominated Best Supporter Actor but SIR Anthony Hopkins might get nominated it instead
this one’s fading while LW and 1917 are coming
yeah, he’s an also-run and those are the most vulnerable.
well, Erivo had no business being nominated for anything due to unsatisfying reviews. So BAFTA got that right. However, BAFTA has no reason to care for harriet (Tubman) while AMPAS does. So we’ll see.
Taika Waititi bumps Tom Hanks out…!!
No Once Upon a Time?
I got Hanks AND Foxx getting in. And I also have Roman getting in.
You can put marriage story before Ad Astra but it doesn’t change the substance. From 6 to 10 i put the movies that I think will get a nomination but can never win.
Putting Marriage Story behind Ad Astra, a film that literally didn’t get in anywhere, even where it was sort of expected to, is slightly weird.
Movies that i think will be nominated (in order from the frontrunner to the outsider)
1) Once Upon a time in hollywood
2) 1917
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) Parasite
5) The Irishman
6) Joker
7) Ford v Ferrari
8) Little Women
9) Ad Astra
10) Marriage Story
Movies i would nominate
1) Parasite
2) Pain&Glory
3) An officer and a spy
4) Portrait of a lady on fire
5) Midsommar
6) Dolemite is my name
7) Burning
8) Marriage Story
9) The Traitor
10) The Souvenir
Omg!!! That would be insane. He wishes he became the Hanks of his generation. It’s Monday! Mere hours after the BFCA!
That’s what I was thinking, especially as he hasn’t been in the conversation for so long.
yeah, Leo’s not missing methinks and he’s the studio’s only Actor champ. No internal competition that Netflix boys had.
Targon hit all he needed – GG (win), SAG, BAFTA. Only if Brits back up Pryce he could miss.
if pesci gets more votes and someone else gets more passion, he could fall by the wayside.
I have Egerton as locked. so it’s the rest of them. if FvF makes it, Bale may too. It’s so confusing lol. hard to make the call.
Egerton, Pryce, and Banderas might all make it in anyway if BAFTA is the judge. Or are you counting on Murphy, Banderas, and/or Bale to get in? The Netflix bias will be interesting since no more than 2 Netflix actors have been nominated in any Best Actor category so far – I.e, Driver and Pryce at BAFTA and Globes drama, with De Niro consistently missing – except BFCA, with nominated 7 actors including these 3 but not Pryce.
Maybe even Pacino?
I guess sadly it would be Hanks. Others like Lopez, Erivo, Awkwafina, Hopkins, and Egerton have already missed one or more major categories. It could also be Leo, following the Globe loss, but the movie is too strong. I don’t see Brad winning in supporting and Leo not even managing a nod when he’s giving the showier performance. Plus with De Niro not getting nominated, it’s hard to believe two of the top American BP contenders miss out for their leads.
Banderas is now really likely to miss the Actor line up, as Hawke in 2018.
I have little faith in Little Women, I am guessing Ford v Ferrari as the 8th nominee, so Little Women is 9th and I do not think we will have 9 nominees.
The one that can really surprise at Best Picture may be Rocketman. I can see it earning 6 technical nominations plus actor… it could be this year’s Black Panther.
7… I just wrote “Hollywood”
I went with Pain and Glory scoring 2 noms… International Film and Score. Bale over Banderas.
More a wishful thinking, but Catchy Song for Song (that would be fantastic).
1917, 9
The Irishman, 8
Jojo Rabbit, 8
Hollywood, 7
Joker, 6
Parasite, 6
Marriage Story, 5
Ford v Ferrari, 4
… those are my guesses for BP nominees.
Little Women, 3 noms (Costume, Actress, Adapted). Rocketman 7 noms but no BP (Actor, both Sound, Song, Costume, Cinematography and Make up)