DGA Nominations Announced!

Yeah it was very technically well made (although the aging did bug me), good performances, the ending was my favourite part. My issue was that it felt like a mini series that had been cut down into a movie. I think there was way more story to tell and they skimmed over the top of a lot of it which happens when you try to fit a guy’s entire life into 3.5 hours. I would love to see Marty shoot a bunch more and turn it into 6-10 hour-long episodes because that is what it felt like it should have been. I feel like I’m almost alone in that view though.

Yeah, I saw it post-Oscars, and I loved it almost as much or maybe more than First Man, which I had (and still do, because I’m reluctant to make such changes until some time and a few more viewings have passed) in a (very clear, up until that point) first for 2018.

I even recommended it to Sammy, shortly after, and she loved it too. 🙂 She’s made posts about that as well, here and there, since. (This was off-season, for me – it was one of only two conversations I had at AD between April and September, I’m pretty sure. I watched a lot of stuff post-Oscars last year.)

My favorite thing about it, apart from, well… everything… was Saskia Rosendahl. My favorite supporting female performance of the year. (Which I’m very aware is probably more than a little subjective.)

So thrilled to hear that Claudiu!!!!!

But I know those who absolutely hated Jojo Rabbit, and articles keep coming out about how it is divisive overall including audiences. I didn’t hate it, I liked it, but was disappointed by it. I’d give it a 7/10.

So?! Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won the Audience Award at TIFF and it was way too divisive to win Best Picture, even though it was one of my favorite films of the last decade. And when did I ever say The Irishman was going to win Best Picture and sweep the awards? Go ahead, find that comment. Ohhhh, that’s right, you won’t be able to, because I never said that. Al Pacino and Joe Pesci will lose Supporting Actor to Brad Pitt, Robert De Niro is probably not going to get nominated at this point, and Martin Scorsese will probably lose Directing to Sam Mendes, Quentin Tarantino, or Bong Joon-Ho. And a friend of mine who’s a well known Oscaroligist on Gold Derby has told me he talked to some Academy voters who love Irishman and some who hate it and think it’s boring. So like Jojo Rabbit, Irishman will not prevail on a preferential ballot.

Never going to happen Chase. It will never prevail on the preferential ballot. Because it’s a film that’s divided critics and audiences alike, and the industry. Also, no film has been snubbed for Best Picture at the BAFTAs and gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

Most likely the same thing that happened to Roma. 🙂 Except with a SAG ensemble nomination. (But with FAR stronger opposition, in terms of stats and not only.)

They supported it AT LEAST as much as Roma – if you don’t just pick the stats you look at according to your whim. All films had major stats working against them last year, at least as bad as those working against Green Book. The trick was figuring out which carried more weight (or how to otherwise break the tie). My system wasn’t quite good enough to make sense of the mess last year, but I’m improving it all the time, based on new results. (And, if there IS a unified way of solving that BP stats puzzle, I should be able to get to it eventually, via this method.) Obviously, had there been even one movie with no stats problems at all (or just the one), Green Book would not have won with those snubs. The fact that there wasn’t indicated what a weak year it was, which is what Green Book took advantage of to win.

I’m not counting out 1917 – but I do think it’s already extremely unlikely.

It’s not completely unbreakable but how can you say it’s not a weakness?! Movies without acting nominations do win QUITE rarely (even if not as rarely as movies without directing or editing or screenplay nominations).

Love these!

It did not. Roma had no SAG ensemble either (AND no SAG acting nomination), no editing nomination (a stat AT LEAST as important as the directing nomination stat – numbers suggest perhaps even more important). Both lost the WGA and SAG, obviously (although Green Book did win an acting award at SAG), both lost ACE, one won PGA, one won DGA. Looking at industry stats alone, to me it’s pretty clear which looks the likelier winner, EVEN with Roma being the nominations co-leader (which is nowhere near as indicative of a BP win as these other markers, ESPECIALLY in the preferential era).

Assistant TO the Second Assistant Director

Sciamma
Bong
Malick
Safdies
Talbot

Baumbach, Tarantino, Mendes, and Scorsese would all make the top 10 though. This is a very rare year where four of the five directing nominees will actually be deserving, potentially five if they go with Noah, but I think it’s about equally likely they’ll award someone who made one of the five worst movies of the year (either Phillips or Waititi) or Gerwig, who is a great actress but merely competent director.

Green Book’s stats were good. It was no.1 on this site at this point of the race on first week of January around the Golden Globes.

I can see Waititi getting snubbed, even Scorsese cause The Irishman has been on decline.

Disney leadership has stated publicly more than once that they don’t care very much about the Oscars. Nobody is going to be inspired to buy a ticket to Thor 4 because the director won an Oscar for Jojo Rabbit, a movie that hardly anyone saw.

Have you seen Bombshell? Mostly it’s the Margot and Charlize show. Writing is mediocre. Lithgow even elicits some sympathy for a creep. Many good actors playing awful people. Little Women has much more heart, character development, relationships, due to superior writing. It depicts women striving for meaning against a backward social/legal structure. The production and cinematography is excellent. Everyone cares about the characters, which is why it is going over 100 million this week. The
Men have emotional weight especially Chris Cooper. Bombshell has a trauma triggering problem. Both movies have great casts. The writing is the difference. It helps to have a woman directing sisters.

QT wouldn’t win a DGA popularity contest anyway, trust.

Gerwig won’t be a surprise nom(she is like number 6 on Goldderby and a previous nominee)

They’re only 90 voters ; the 8000 Academy voters will not go for a movie like this

No, because his direction in 1917 is on another level. Best director is not a popularity contest. It is actually a technical category.

Parasite and Once upon a Time in Hollywood are way over Baumbach’s screenplay in the race. Johansson is probably 3rd in the Actress race at this point, and Driver is 2nd. Dern seems the only reward Marriage Story is going to earn, specially since Baumbach is probably 7th or 8th or even lower for a Best Director nom, after missing DGA and Globe nominations. If you are looking for Screenplay wins + DGA as the key signs of the Best Picture winner, the frontrunner is Jojo Rabbit, then Hollywood, then Parasite.

Poor fools the dga are becoming suffice to say time they expanded their category match more trustworthy pga from 5 -8 nominees I cannot fathom Todd Phillips snubbed for dga matters not joker still flying high as deserved dark horse on balance scoring lead most nominatedcfilm at BAFTA, nailing sag key artistic guild noms , and pga dga not be all and end all thankfully determining best pic winner

Didn’t Phantom Thread really come out of nowhere? Little Women seems to have been released with enough time to build momentum. It has the PGA. It’s also showing up here and there at other awards for Adapted Screenplay (WGA and BAFTA) Director and Acting noms.

what’s your problem with Joker and Joaquin Phoenix?

But 1917 has just won Director and BPicture Drama at the Globes which Dunkirk failed to do so.

The point is not how the Academy voters watch them, but how the audience at large is supposed to see films. If the industry goes the Netflix way, movies made for streaming like The Irishman simply become very expensive and fancy TV movies, which some people would argue is not cinema.

I am actually surprised traditionalists like Scorsese agree to do it.

Not really… Roma didn’t score a single SAG nomination and lost PGA. Two gigantic failures.
The only award BlacKKKlansman won the whole season was BAFTA writing. No film wins BP with that few accolades.

I wouldn’t recommend sniffing signs, you really don’t know what people might have done to them…

What looks like for the Best Picture win…

1. Once upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. The Irishman
4. Parasite
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit

What I am smelling through some signs…

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Once upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. 1917
5. Joker
6. The Irishman
7. Marriage Story
8. Parasite

Thank you.

There are a lot of female directors out there, and the amount is growing and that is great. That is another discussion, though.

When it comes to the top 5.. if a female director is not part of it then their film wasn’t deemed good enough for inclusion. It’s as simple as that. Or it was snubbed, which happens to both males and females.

In 1993 a great film was made by a female director, The Piano. Jane Campion was nominated. She made a masterpiece so she was included. Make a film as good as that and you will be nominated.

There are snubs every year. I wanted Noah Baumbach nominated and he was shut out. Greta Gerwig could have been nominated, so could Robert Eggers for the Lighthouse. They all deserved attention one way or the other.

Point is they choose who they think have done the best directorial job of 2019. Gender has nothing to do with it, nor should it ever be a factor.

You clearly didn’t get it. I’m talking about Herzog, who never had a nom either.

On that I can agree.

Joe Talbot! 😀

That’s 3 in first feature and “the year that more women got behind the camera” kind of makes sense lots of women in first feature but none of them in the top category. Though top be fair I would’ve nominated 2 in the top category (Wang and Sciamma).

If you look at the 10 nominees there is actually a lot of diversity there! In gender and ethnicity. Sure 3/10 women isn’t amazing but it’s not terrible either! And I don’t think we can forget they include a South Korean guy, A Polynesian guy, a black French woman, an African American woman and an Israeli Woman.

Stats didn’t support any of Green Book’s rivals winning either. That’s why it won. More because of the weaknesses of completion in terms of broad industry support than anything else.

It’s like people are purposefully ignoring the 3 women nominees in the First Time Director category.

I know I’m a minority around here but the Irishman was kind of a let down for me… Though generally including Scorsese in awards is something I can totally get behind!

Looks like 1917 will win Bafta , but thats all

That’d be granddady herzog

She’s a lock for a nom, certainly, but I think Waititi’s DGA nom proves Jojo Rabbit is a lot stronger and has more industry support than otherwise. At this point, I think Adapted goes to whichever director gets the 5th slot – in this case Gerwig or Waititi.

And Julianne Moore 2002

Back at ya.

sure they will. Directors branch will never vote for comicbook director and Marriage Story has faded. Waititi is in. His shitty movie weathered bad MC, so-so boxoffice, GG and BAFTA snubs. it’s strong Stateside among guilds. I’m now convinced Waititi is winning Adapted. When it looked like DGA could go with Gerwig due to #oscassomale, I thought she’d win Adapted with ease. no more.

The US, UK, Australia are flirting with fascism. Italy, Poland, Spain, and Hungary are there. So look at a Trump rally. All they need is Leni Riefenstahl.

I really wanted Sciamma here but it was always a long shot.

Happy for Sammy and Jojo. Can we not be nasty about it. I remember how thrilled I was when Garth Davis got in. It’s so nice when the film you love gets recognised like this.

I counted no woman director in the major category. Two women in 1st feature. How is that? Wasn’t this the year that more women got behind the camera?

I really don’t like mediocirty that gets a pass due to diversity. if anything came from diversity push, it’s mediocrity galore because lower standards. eevryone is trying to be encouraging by giving way higher scores to average movies. Heck, Variety or THR said that was OK when critics had no choice but to give an obvi turd A wrinkle In Time rotten reviews. One of those trades said it would be Ok to go easy on movies directed by women. Cringe patronizing.

> I don’t care to learn her name

You don’t say?

I like Sammy a lot and think she is one of the joys of this site. And I hope she is rewarded this year. But I agree that the DGA prize will be solidly for one of the three Werner mentions above. and if not Scorsese. BTW I really loved Aguire and Fitzcaraldo Sir!!! 🙂

yes because it looks like they like her performances enough for nominations but think someone els ein each category is better. Sucks but it’s gonna be 2 noms on her resume so nothing to complain.

> Well you seem really passionate about Jojo.

That’s the first correct observation you’ve made about me yet.

Dern is a lock. Forget about that.

The Irishman’s star is fading. It will get plenty of nominations but I can’t see any of them winning at this point.

Well you seem really passionate about Jojo. So good for you. I thought it was mediocre, something Mel Brooks would be proud. of (he is). But in the 80s. The kid was good, I’ll give you that, but the film itself is a non-event.

I’m hoping for the Safdies or Malick.

Exactly. 4 for sure and maybe 5 or 6 maximum for it. I do NOT believe Waititi’s DGA nod will translate to an Oscar nomination. I’m almost ready to wager on it. Gerwig, Phillips or perhaps even Baumbach or further down Almodovar gets that fifth spot. But in the end I do not see it winning a single Oscar.

Who’s the random director nomination at the Oscars in the 5th spot like when Anderson came out of nowhere with Phantom Thread and got nominated for director.

Wouldn’t it be wild is the Sadfie brothers got nominated.

Yes, indeed. But last year was pretty crazy in Director.

Any category with Bong in it is off to a great start.

Sad but true.

I’m telling you, Jojo’s anti-hate message is feeling so relevant at the moment.

When the First Time Director films are collectively better than the actual DGA films.

I haven’t seen Sciamma’s film yet so I can make no judgment on it one way or the other.

And you’ll be surprised when those same traditionalists (like Scorsese) vote for films like The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Two Popes. I don’t believe those lofty sentiments about how audience are “supposed” to see films are any more than that–it’s hypocritical to earn money making films for Netflix and then saying that audiences should see them a certain way. I’m a guild member and I personally prefer to see films on a big screen whenever possible, but I’m not going to hold it against a film if the work was financed by and streamed on Netflix or Amazon. Arguments about what is and is not cinema are already divisive (Scorsese/MCU).

Grandpa stop with the idioms 🙂

Bong
Sciamma
Almodovar
Hogg
Andersson

I also would nominate Diop and the Safdie brothers (or the director of Beanpole).

But critical response and box office result neither, strangely enough…

Sweet, I picked the DGA five correctly. 🙂 At least, I think I did.

Oscar rarely matches DGA 5/5.

Except I think they’re going to do much worse in terms of a tally than last year. I suspect that much like Megan Ellison, Netflix cash is going to dry up for these kinds of pictures moving forward.

Steven Spielberg was extolling 1917 just a few weeks ago. Just saying…

I’m thinking either Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917 will be the “safe” choice of these folks are hesitant toward awarding Parasite or a Netflix film.

You’re talking about your daddy.

Did Philips get nominated 3 times in your fantasy?

this won’t have cultural impact. no reason for it.

Haven’t seen all the top players yet (notably Little Women, 1917) but other than the usual suspects, I would definitely have Celine Sciamma in my 5 and I would probably have a hard time letting Mangold go, too.

If anything Watiti getting in here only helps Philips (not as much as getting in himself obviously) But doesn’t give the chance for any other last minute surges by Gerwig/ Baumbach etc

“flaw” as in what was the issue with the film that knocked it below Green Book. For instance, Bohemian Rhapsody (which I despised), had the obvious flaw of Bryan Singer. If not for him, I think it would have won BP.

Should have been:
Todd Phillips
Bong
Mendes
Scorsese

Sontag, what guild did 1917 miss? Editing? It did make PGA, DGA and WGA which are the most important methinks.

I would personally pick Bong for Director, but I sincerely doubt I’ll see another film this year that I love as much as Jojo Rabbit.

I keep forgetting about Phillips. Stats-wise he could happen, I personally don’t see it happening though.

Interesting. I’ve seen a ton of films this year as I have for many decades (I am 65 now) and Gerwig’s film is one of the best on my list. I think there is an excellent chance she will expel Waititi in the regular one disagreement with AMPAS’ choices and I don’t at all see it as playing anything. I’d feel far less frustrated if she secures that spot:

1. Never Look Away (Germany, Florian Von Donnarsmarck)
2. 1917 (USA, Sam Mendes)
3. A Hidden Life (USA, Terrence Malick)
4. Little Women (USA, Greta Gerwig)
5. Waves (USA, Edward Shults)
6. Uncut Gems (USA, Joshua and Ben Saftie)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France, Celine Schiamma)
8. An Elephant Sitting Still (China, Hu Bo)
9. Transit (Germany, Christian Petzold)
10. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (USA, Quentin Tarantino)
11. Ad Astra (USA, James Gray)
12. The Irishman (USA, Martin Scorsese)
13. The Lighthouse (USA, Robert Eggers)
14. Synonyms (France/Isreal, Nadav Lapid)
15. The Wild Pear Tree (Turkey, Nuri Bilge Ceylan
16. Parasite (South Korea, Bong Joon-ho)
17. Jo Jo Rabbit (USA, Taika Waititi)
18. The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao (Brazil, Karim Ainouz)
19. The Two Popes (UK/USA, Fernando Meirelles)
20. Woman at War (Iceland, Benedikt Erlingsson)
21. A Marriage Story (USA, Noah Baumbach)
22. Queen and Slim (USA, Melina Matsoukas)
23. Luce (USA, Julius Onah)
24. Cats (UK/USA, Tom Hooper)
25. Midsommar (USA, Sweden, Ari Aster)
and
Ash is the Purest White (Hong Kong) -TIE-

Runners-Up (in no order): A Sword of Trust (USA); Scheme Birds (Scotland); Giant Little Ones (Canada); The Last Black Man in San Francisco (USA); Knives Out (USA); The Mustang (USA); Ford vs. Ferrari (USA); Honey Boy (USA); Give Me Liberty (USA); Pain and Glory (Spain); The Peanut Butter Falcon (USA); A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (USA); Wild Rose (USA); Dark Waters (USA); Monos (Columbia); Birds of Passage (Columbia/Denmark); Sorry Angel (France); Atlantics (Senegal/France); Honeyland (North Macedonia); Colewell (USA); Sauvage/Wild (France); Dolemite is My Name (Craig Brewer); Meeting Gorbachev (Russia/USA); The Place of No Words (UK); 17 Blocks (USA); Gay Chorus Deep South (USA); Changing the Game (USA); House of Hummingbird (South Korea); One Child Nation (China); The Apollo (USA); Rocket Man (UK); Blinded by the Light (UK); Harriet (USA); The Biggest Little Farm (USA); Apollo 11 (USA)

they can’t cause he maori. only if white director took the spot. they have to clench their teeth and keep quiet. DGA fucked them over tee hee.

She ain’t playing the woman card. Everyone else is playing it for her.

Only one of those films would have merited a BD nom, though.

The Oscars almost always throw in one random director that no one saw coming, and when they do, it’s frequently a foreign film (think Fernando Meirelles, Pawel Pawlikowski). So I feel like there’s a chance for an Almodovar here, or could this finally be where Portrait of a Lady on Fire gets some recognition (don’t really think it’s that possible, but we need something exciting to think about at this point).

No, the one with Dakota Fanning.

TDK, BP, Joker

I obviously disagree.. found it to be an interesting film, with a good script and good acting. Direction is for sure not something I’d single it out for..

philips wasn’t going to get nominated for funnybook movie. if they didn’t nominate a black funnybook director last year despite insane pressure, they certianly wouldn’t a whitey since no brownie points. directors are elitist like that.

I think at the Oscars there will be proper surprises in BD and not the “could Todd Phillips get in ?” kind. More like Almodovar or Gerwig or Mangold or Sciamma.

Oh that wasn’t me, that was Sammy. I’ve been saying for months that Jojo will only get three above the line nods (picture, adapted and supporting actress) with director being a long shot but apparently he is closer than I thought, Sammy saw this one coming, I didn’t.

You could argue that, based on the stats, missing here is actually a good thing for contenders like Phillips and Gerwig, because the DGA and the Academy directors branch have only been in complete alignment twice in the last twenty years (last time in 2009), so the person currently occupying the fifth spot in the DGA lineup is presumptively more likely to be bounced for somebody else.

That said, congratulations to Waititi on getting the nomination here.

Nice surprise. I like that the rushed schedule makes things more unpredictable.

My gut feeling is that Phillips still sneaks in for Director at the Oscars though.

Okay: if not Greta, Taika is…acceptable.

The first real twist of the season.

Funny

Maybe Almodovar

Still think Phillips is a chance. DGA is Joker’s first big misstep

How is Parasite “in trouble”? If anything, I sense an opening in Supporting Actress a la the shock acting nominees Roma scored last year.

What was Blackkklansman’s big flaw? Or was it just too far behind the perceived big hitters to launch a winning final push?

I’m not talking about the end. I’m talking about the whole story.

Harrellson leaves Rockwell a letter saying, effectively, “I’m sorry you’ve had things so hard, I know you’re a good cop even if you’ve done some dumb things.”

No, he’s not a good cop. You can’t mistreat suspects based on their race and still be a good cop. You can’t fucking torture a suspect and still be a good cop. The script treats his hate crime as a minor screwup, which it isn’t.

Again, if anyone was paying attention to the end, not only was Rockwell not kicking the dog, now McDormand was in the muck too. It was actually kind of a sociopathic payoff.

Just say no.

I’m starting to wonder whether this could just be a sweep year for OUATIH. Globes was perfect for it because it gave it momentum though didn’t make it too big of a target because the night ended with 1917. It is probably the favourite to win SAG then I would not be at all surprised if it takes that trajectory and runs with it, winning DGA, PGA and just sweeps the whole season with the industry. Its the only film that makes sense to me winning right now but I could be wrong I just don’t see any of the other films winning right now. Plus it is a film about the movie industry and the industry does love that!

Also, how many of those traditionalist voters actually watch most of the nominated films on a big screen these days? It’s been all about screeners and streamers for a while now.

The Irishman is dead . Frank should close the door . Scorsese should get a walker like Harvey Weinstein maybe people will feel sorry for him . He didn’t even deserve to be nominated for that abomination . Maybe he should make a movie that ends with a man on a raft surrounded by monkeys .

Although I love Joker and want Phoenix to win, it doesnt seem like the most astonishing directorial effort this year. The Irishman is tremendous, so is 1917. Tarantino has done better, but its the script I dont particularly like, not his directing, which is great as always. Love Waititi but Marriage Story was robbed here.

That is, 600 not 60.

Worst movie? Are you talking about Joker?

There are two women in Waititi’s directional team!

Second Assistant Director
Second Second Assistant Director
Additional Second Assistant Director

LOL

I think people are still traumatized by how Green Book won BP despite all of its stats flaws and are suffering from an amnesia… all of Green Book’s competitors had even worse flaws. Not the case this time.

Tarantino ftw

he is a master. I still prefer Almodovar this year, but… the weaker Bong film I have seen, is stronger than more than half Almodovar’s…

Don’t worry, Taika will become a woman. he’s woke like that.

Even though Jojo didn’t get pic/ director at BAFTA it overperformed in the tech categories there too. Though yeah anyone saying Jojo is winning is ridiculous but I think it’s in a good place to have a very good nomination morning. Also I don’t think anyone is saying Jojo is winning I think people are saying Jojo could win, which I’m far from convinced by but never say never.

I admit I hate it. I hate Jane, I hate giving Thor franchise to that character. I really hate the whole thing so I’m happy if someone responsible for this pays and bomb is a pay. I know it’s completely childish but I cna’t help it, Werner. I was pissed when they killed you on Mando too. 🙁

Not Joker. If you look at Goldderby it is currently predicted for 6 nominations so 8would be an over performance. Once will very likely be the nom leader but I could very easily see Irishman only getting 7 (gold Derby is currently predicting 9 for Irishman but I’m not really convinced on production design and vfx – though it could overperform gold Derby too and reach double digits)

Mendes will win this

Toronto loved it and who they love wins. they have the same taste as AMPAS. 🙁

I think it’s been Hollywood and Irishman with 1917 a possible spoiler.

I don’t think AMPAS wants a groundbreaking winner. I lost hope that anything can save us from Jojo. it’s GB 2.0 just like TIFF predicted.

… or Parasite.

I think the final win is between 1917, Hollywood and Jojo.

Three women in the 1st feature category.

I noticed that, too! And I give them so much crap every year but they seemed to make very good choices this year.

Of all the precursors, the BFCA had by far the best picks in all categories. Quite surprising!

there’s first ever Korean and first ever Polynesian. That should shut woke twitter up.

I would like that but no.

Stats didn’t support Green Book winning without SAG Ensemble and without a director nomination. Shit happens. People are overestimating how predictive the stats are.

Acting :

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3eff7c0a7137e0ea860dacee6c5400f18171eb761a9c3bf1a332032358686642.png

Thanks for the stats analysis, always much appreciated !

Here is a quick overview, as well :

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a5baa3e81b1d4a950cdb6910bb4271725e57d3f2fe9e5a2f4451ba600cc6740.png

He has his own voice. What more would you like?

Parasite only real weakness is the fact it’s foreign. This non acting thing isn’t completely unbreakable.

or that Waititi is original

I wouldn’t have chosen him for my top five directors this year, but his vision is undeniable and he’s always doing something interesting and unpredictable.

Even though stats-wise it´s in a frontrunner position, I´m pretty sure “The Irishman” can´t win Best Picture due to a lack of passionate support.
Jojo is a threat, I agree, mainly because it´s probably the only sentimental candidate in the race. And I wouldn´t count out 1917, at least not yet.

The Irishman is the best film of the year.

Don’t tease me like that! If the Sadfies popped up, I will personally go down to the Diamond District and steal something.

I’m not. multi noms >>>>> win. Nobody hates nominees, everyone hates winners. Nominations don’t step on toes, wins do.

Yes it’s star is fading. However I still feel this award is still in its corner.

Not necessarily but he is the most vulnerable of these 5.

I see. That’s what I thought. Doesn’t look good for Waititi then.

In 2017, McDonagh missed at the Oscars.
In 2016, Garth Davis missed.

2016/2017…

Nevertheless, this DGA nod (and many other guild nods) is proof of wide industry support for the film.

lol how’s he original? his movie is Wes Anderson shtick.

OUATIH, The Irishman and Joker will have more. 8 is a good day for Jojo, but for those 3, 8 would probably be an under-performance.

Moccasin deserved to miss cause Scarjo outclassed her, heck, Taika outclassed her boring bland Bargain Bin Wasikowska ass. Everyone outclassed her. Anyway, GGs are not that big of a deal now that Guilds are taking over and it has fair shot at winning SAG Ensemble. Also, lots of below the line support.

No, Joker is nowhere near in danger of missing out in BP, it is solid at #6 with presumably 8 or 9 slots in the end.

Waititi is deserving because he is original.

It’s only worth them snubbing Wilde if discount Scorsese (AKA some guy named Todd Phillips) stays out of the Director’s category for good. I loved Booksmart and Honey Boy though.

Well, he WAS Austrian.

Or maybe Almodóvar, but unlike Pawlikowlski last year, Pain and Glory didn’t perform well at BAFTA.

Joker was never going to win. it’s between 1917 and OUATIH unless Jojo wins SAG+PGA. Joker was always fighting for a nom.

Yep. That means is from now OUATIH, The Irishman, Parasite and 1917.

I wasn’t in love with the screenplay but directing/cinematography are terrific.

Whenever Freud smoke a cigar, it was never only a cigar…

Don’t know the number, but rarely. They tend to go 4/5.

Question for stats lovers. How often do the DGA overlaps 5/5 with the Oscars BD? Just to see Waititi’s chances for the nomination.

it will. you’ve been right about Jojo so far mostly so I’m gonna listen what you say.

Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

Lol

Only one double acting nominee has lost in modern times (Sigourney).

Then burying Dolemite and Two Popes during campaign season was pretty freaking stupid.

It won TIFF Audience Award like GB. It’ll get lots of noms. It could even win if SAG/PGA go for it.

Portrait is a wonderful film. Thank goodness the Gerwig lynch mob did not prevail here.

OMG, just noticed they snubbed Wilde! YES! YES! Honey Boy director in! YES!

Do you view all films in such a reductive manner, or only the ones you don’t like?

holocaust + PoC director. The former appeals to older crowd the latter to New Academy Kidz.

Truth be told, I’ve never been a huge fan of his.

at least something. And Thor Love and Thinder won’t even make a line up tee-hee (still salty that he elevated bloody Jane Foster over Thor)

I will get around to it eventually.

Bong
Eggers
Gerwig
Johnson
Tarantino

Haven’t yet seen:

Mendes
Sciamma
Waititi

My dear sweet child of the Internet, do you truly believe that everyone who loves a film and expresses it must be on someone’s payroll? Perhaps the Russians? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, to quote another famed German speaker.

Well, I´d say they are usually too much middle-of-the-road to recognize the greatest achievements in a field they should be experts about. No one can tell me, for example, that Celine Sciammas work is less praiseworthy than Waititi. (I haven´t seen Little Women yet, but a MC score of 91 is probably no indicator for a proper directing job)

Bong

On the plus side, a lovely list for the first-time director slot.

Gerwig
Gray
Bong
Sciamma
Johnson

(Haven’t seen 1917 or Jojo Rabbit yet)

Sorry, Almodovar over Mangold.

Boon, Gerwig, Peele, Sciamma, Mangold

Maybe the DGA only takes directing into account? Big if true.

Gender has nothing to do with it.

I really think that James Mangold’s work in FvF is superior in every conceivable way when compared with Waititi’s direction of Jojo Rabbit. It’s so hard to understand this nomination.

While I don’t believe that one man’s nom helps another man, I hope you are right that Joker makes BP line up.

yep, always look at below the lines for signs.

I would suggest that ScarJo if she’s a double nominee might have an easier path to a win in Supporting, especially if the Netflix backlash is real.

Ah, right. Well it never really was in that mix anyway to be honest. McKay was excellent but the rest were mainly symbols. I don’t think the SAG omission is remotely significant but we will see.

It won’t miss BP, lol. SAG Ensemble for Joker would be like editing for Birdman, it wouldn’t have been nominated just because of the movie’s concept. DGA was always tricky, but considering stats, Taika’s win can actually help Phillips get BD nom.

I was saying there wouldn’t be more than 2 for no studio could handle more. poeple just didn’t know what to cut because Sasha was bullish on Dolemite and Two Popes were wowing lesser festival crowds.

I’m still stubbornly thinking Almodovar pulls a Pawel Pawlikowski for that 5th slot and surprises. I know it goes against stats, but the Academy’s directors branch is small and prone to individualistic choices like that. A celebrated director telling his own personal story in such a beautiful way seems like catnip to them.

I’m probably wrong and it’s just Phillips but hey, why not make things more exciting!

Joker is not winning anyways

Unfortunately, this is true. Right now, I just don’t want Joker to miss Picture. is it in danger of it?

Also, Jojo did really well in below the lines at BAFTA which pointed at something bigger brewing.

Touché

AD Herzog is Waititi in disguise. 😉

It’s hilarious to me looking back two months how MANY were predicting four Netflix movies and all these actors and directors to make it. To me it was never gonna happen.

LOL, I want Joker to be the frontrunner but Waititi nom helps Waititi. I never udnerstood “X’s nom helps Y” logic. It helps X only.

No. I was disappointed by Ad Astra.

Oscar voting is over right? I think these are the five or Phillips for Waititi. If Gerwig was gonna to make a run she would have shown up by now. Just my opinion.

That was Todd Phillips’spot.

Who are your personal DGA noms if you were voting? Mine in no order:

Tarantino
Bong Joon Ho
Mendes (haven’t seen it but will in two days and assume it will be one of my faves of the year)
Mangold
Wang

If not Mendes after I see it, Waititi

1. The rumored Netflix backlash is becoming a fairly open one at this point. I’ll actually be surprised if any of their properties win a single Oscar this year.

2. Baumbach is probably rethinking some of the parts of his script that were more than a little passive-aggressive towards his ex-wife, considering the circumstances.

3. Waititi being a Marvel director probably benefitted a great deal from the backlash to what Marty said.

Yes precisely!

ah OK

Werner it is a very good film for sure.

Gerwig for the fifth spot methinks.

ZING

Enough of them get read to have these reactions.

nope. Irishman is winning zero.

yes. nobody’s talking about it. look around. it was supposed to create controversy but it didn’t happen. it was supposed to start conversation but it didn’t happen. it’s chugging along under the radar which may just be how it ends at the top. I always said it would be the worst/least memorable winner if it won and it’s now getting close.

Not as big as the Actors though (SAG Ensemble).

Brit Block is big in AMPAS so yes it matters.

No Irishman is definitely winning Adapted Screenplay.

This is the point in the season where I start throwing out any random shit as possibilities because it’s too boring otherwise.

“Stop trying to make Almodovar happen. It’s not going to happen.”

– Regina George

There hasn’t been a perfect DGA / Oscars match since the 2009 / 2010.

One, sometimes even two, misses the cut at the Oscars.

Waititi. it’s over.

Apparently it wasn’t her spot.

Where’s the outrage for Waititi taking Gerwig’s spot?

Other than not understanding the hate for mr. Phillips in the comments.. really? Waititi? Leaving out the Safdie brothers, or Noah Baumbach, or Pedro Almodóvar, or Greta Gerwig (just to name some)?

I sure hope not.

Todd Phillips will get the Oscar nom. Not worried. He got in at BAFTA.

Congrats ! He is already getting two (Picture, Adapted) but he may even get three now. Most likely he is a shaky #5 at the moment but that’s still a lot better than many of us thought he could get after the critical takedown.

So the Master Quartet and for the elusive 5th slot Taika Waititi.

I can’t fault the DGA for that quintet, JOJO RABBIT may not have been perfect but regardless it was a very good film and if the alternative was JOKER for that 5th slot, then DGA made the right choice in my opinion.

Confirms 4 locks, one open slot.

Waititi is in, and Philips is out?! What a lovely day!