It’s all come down to this. Oscar nominations will be announced Monday morning, putting an end to all of the speculation and guessing / second guessing. Before that beautiful morning, Awards Daily’s own Oscar Squad weighs in here with their final predictions for the 92nd Annual Academy Awards.
Be sure to follow Awards Daily on Monday as the nominations drop. We’ll post nominee reactions, analysis, and another (much delayed) entry in the All This and the Oscars Too podcast series.
Until then, enjoy the Oscar Squad final predictions below!
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
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The scary thing now is that so many of the upsets are becoming consensus picks. Like for Parasite supporting actor over Hopkins — though it became obvious to most that Aparicio was beating Emily Blunt last year post-BAFTA. So there’s one instance of an upset that was widely predicted by the end. I think typical Academy choices would be to snub Joker and Knives Out where they can; for LW to do better than it did anywhere else (other than BAFTA—I don’t think it will necessary outdo its nominations there); for more POC and especially black actors to be nominated (look at who’s announcing the nominees); and for the British Contingent to push through a film that underperformed with the guilds—would that be The Two Popes with its Globe noms or just Little Women and Rocketman in Best Actor and below-the-line races?
Best Actress is confusing. If you’ve seen Harriet, while she is feisty and emotive in the role, it’s largely one-note and feels too much like the kind of blatant Oscar bait that gets many precursor nominations but misses on Oscar’s preferential ballot. But Us could be wishful thinking. And Awkwafina in a lesser year would be a good critics’ pick, but the role itself is not too complex or baity, and The Farewell is losing steam and she even missed Indie Spirit. It’s hard to imagine her beating both black actresses and Saoirse in a beloved role in a literary adaptation.
“hope left for candidates like Song Kang-ho (quite many are predicting him) and Margot Robbie for the right performance.”
They both made the cut and were nominated on the Awards Daily Oscar Ballot:
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/11/12th-annual-awards-daily-oscar-nominations/
Stats-wise (Guilds + Bafta + HFPA) I think the 9 is
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. Marriage Story
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Little Women
I’m giving Ford v Ferrari the edge because it had at least some support (Bale’s SAG nod) from the biggest Academy branch (Actors) while Little Women, quite surprisingly, did not. Then again latter has WGA and acting / writing nominations from Bafta while FvF has none of those so I guess they are pretty neck and neck after all.
That’s where my confusion comes from, as well : sure, US had stronger reviews and better Box Office but both feel cancelled out by the early release date, genre bias and lack of buzz in any other category meanwhile HARRIET, with its better-than-expected Box Office, good-enough reviews, Oscar-friendly genre / central role / release date, could be a nominee in at least two categories.
Yeah, I see FvF and Little Women as 8th/9th based on many things.
But even if they are 8th/9th … there’s no saying if there will be 8 or 9 nominees this year.
And, who is 8th? Beats me.
Of course, there’s always the possibility of something that we assume is safe in the Top 7 actually NOT being safe in the Top 7? In the case of 2019, I wonder if it is Marriage Story.
That’s my thing, too. Erivo is so much more visible, and across two categories (Actress and Song). She’s worrrkkking itttt. Her Oscary movie (Us has genre bias) did very well, and recently. As fantastic as Nyong’o is … SAG, and only SAG, might not be enough. Her film was a big hit, but much earlier in the year. And AMPAS has a shorter memory than critics. But who knows!? Gonna be a nailbiter.
I don’t think it is. It picked up some steam in the final stage of the Oscar voting period (strong BO, strong final critical consensus, USC Scripter nod) but after failing to register with crucial precursor groups it seemed to be tailor-made for (SAG, HFPA), I think the general sentiment was that it isn’t a strong BP contender after all.
Maybe if the season was longer and there was enough time for the BO hit status and PGA+WGA nominations to sink in and sway voters a bit, but in this abbreviated season, the cold hard truth is it started surprisingly weak and may not have had the chance to recover in time.
That’s great, Ryan!
The AD bunch got it right, again!
I’m curious what the reasoning is behind putting Nyong’O well above Erivo when stats-wise latter is considerably stronger (SAG nod vs. SAG + GG + CC nods) with a much more Oscar-friendly genre, release date and role. Thoughts ?
Nice to see there is still some hope left for candidates like Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Song Kang-ho (quite many are predicting him, which surprises me) and Margot Robbie for the right performance.
No one has Baumbach or Sciamma in Directing, but I see that they are probably out of sight, unfortunately.
Reading this I feel like joining the AD contest, too (at least in the main categories).
Nice to see there is still some hope left for candidates like Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Song Kang-ho (quite many are predicting him, which surprises me) and Margot Robbie for the right performance.
No one has Baumbach or Sciamma in Directing, but I see that they are probably out of sight, unfortunately.
Reading this I feel like joining the AD contest, too (at least in the main categories).