Next week’s awards-apalooza will decide the Best Picture race. Or not. Either way, you smart Oscar watchers can figure it out. First up, the Producers Guild announces on Saturday, January 18. Remember that they have ten nomination slots and ten nominees and they count their votes using the preferential system. Because of how the dates have been pushed up, we don’t have a lot of stats to go on. In fact, the race is continuously fluid. Even now, as I write this, it’s fluid. I would bet that not everyone has made up their mind about which film they want to vote for.
In general, you have either a first round winner (like Argo) or you have a recount winner (like The Big Short). No one can ever prove beyond a certainty that this is how these votes came down, but we make the assumption. It can be helpful in figuring out, say, whether or not Roma could win Best Picture last year. Roma not winning the PGA (which does not have an additional category for foreign language films) was a clear sign that it likely could not win Best Picture. When The Big Short won, it won on a preferential ballot against the other Best Picture contenders. But when it went up against Spotlight at the SAG with a whopping 150,000 voters and only one round of balloting, Spotlight came out the winner. That was a pretty good bet The Big Short wasn’t going to win Best Picture (though I predicted it anyway and got it wrong).
In general, your PGA winner is also a DGA nominee. This has always been true, I believe, since the start of the PGA — with the sole exception of Driving Miss Daisy. For whatever reason in that bizarre year, director Bruce Beresford never got nominated anywhere and yet Driving Miss Daisy kept on winning. But since then — yeah, you need the DGA. So that likely reduces your nominees that can win the PGA down to the DGA five — which must mean, stats wise, Joker can’t win. But given the quick schedule and the odd way this race has gone down, I personally would not exclude Joker. If you think it can win, predict it. But otherwise, it’s:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
It’s probably going to be one of those, although there are other factors to consider. And they are:
- The woman/Argo factor. Does the presumed “snub” (wasn’t a snub) of Greta Gerwig push that movie higher than it would ordinarily go? And does that somehow produce a freak win for Little Women?
- How the date swap may have led to 11 nominations for Joker after Todd Phillips missed DGA. Could that mean that it is much more popular than anyone realizes?
- The “star” factor name on the list of producers. How many of these filmmakers are listed as producers? ALL of them except Little Women.
I am not quite ready to make my own prediction for this yet, but here is a contest form for you:
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Never.
A foreign film for PGA?! Now, if that happens, we HAVE to assume Parasite is wicked-strong in this race!… Like, almost unbeatable-strong…
I think it definitely can win Best Picture, but I also think it’s not winning the PGA. It can win SAG and/or DGA, though. Might have to be both… WGA is tough too – foreign films don’t win that one, either.
Brokeback Mountain and Little Miss Sunshine are the other two PGA winners without an Oscar nomination for editing.
Joker will also win score. Same as at the Globes.
Can’t WIN the WGA either… So I think it needs either DGA or SAG to go along with PGA. Otherwise, something else will emerge as a more logical stats pick.
If the editing snub is indeed telling, then Once will not win enough major guilds to make up for it. If not, it will, and WILL win BP in spite of it, like many other movies breaking such (sometimes even several decades-long) trends before it – Titanic (screenplay), Argo (directing), Spotlight (ACE), The Shape of Water (SAG ensemble), etc.
And blocked
I picked 1917 BUT i really love Joker to win it..prob won’t happen HOWEVER HOWEVER i must confess i have a new no.1 and after at the time i saw Ford vs. Ferrari. it since lead for me personally as my no.1 choice for best picture but thanks to points Sasha pointed out not to mention the extraordinary effort of JOKER to defy the critics much like the central character in Joker defies the ‘system’ the ‘established order’ and crafts his own path through mayhem and more explicit public carnage gradually throughout the film…i must confess that JOKER is my no.1 when it comes down to it how many films have been made where we back in the villain the bad guy of the story? He does so many awful things yet we do cheer him on as i tries find his place in the world. It nothing short of a jaw dropping cinematic achievement and rarest of rarest feats in filmmaking- it no wonder many declaring JOKER one of best films of the decade- it supposed to be a film that hard to watch it violence explosive – and directed and executed on film for maximum impact. Much much more than just a DC film. So, to me JOKER is no.1 and even in most competitive oscar years i seen in years..when it comes down to it on my % of broader public/ most talked about movie of the year it not only no.1 but bigger margin than time i had Ford Vs. Ferrari which is at no.2
MY ratings for best picture of the year as follows:
1. JOKER- 98%
2. Ford Vs. Ferrari- 94%
3. JoJo Rabbit- 92%
4. 1917- 88%
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- 86%
6. The Irishman- 78%
Whoever wins the pga- it has to be said i would NOT underestimate JOKER’s regard amongst ampas and preferential ballot question is..has enough time passed between next supposedly most polarizing controversial oscar winner and, in that time, just how much more mature and accepting are academy awarding best picture to a possible divisive film? but the phenomenal achievement NO OTHER oscar nominated film has achieved this year is it brought together all parts of community propelling this hard hitting r- rated drama to break the record for and given it subject matter for a r rated film in box office history but also one on such low budget for quality product would it reallly be hard to believe if in unlikely not impossible scenario JOKER wins best picture?
For Joker to win best picture i do feel it need handful of guilds..SAG is a MUST and will surely surely for Joaquin Phoenix. But it either need to surprise with screenplay or editing guild win. or even PGA.
I explain why JOJO is rated no.3 but what i say it no coincidence given idea of light hearted parody type style of representation of Hitler and nazism and nazis against backdrop of things happening timing wise of films release in world today…it indeed bold way it been done in JOJO would not insult should not a mature minded individual least of all a mature educated smart thinking Jew like myself. It no coincidence two boldest movies nominated for best picture and in my top3 are Joker and JOJO Rabbit.
Courageous and depending how you see it controversial for parodying Hitler and Nazism both in their own right symbols of most destructive operation to purge Jews and anyone else inferior to the supposed ‘pure’ nazi race, but way Waititi did it he understood parts of nazism who could translate into entertainment traits rather than making light of Fascism/ Nazism ideology itself..wow what a delight and a triumph and refreshing take on the entire Nazi- Hitler coverage in contrast to past hollywood movies on this aspect of WWII really is.
I do more extensive review of Jo Jo ltr.
what a moronic view of tarantino and scorcesse…
what do you think about parasite?
I picked Parasite , Toy Story 4 and Apollo 11 even though it was not nominated got the Oscars.
The winners should be The Irishman ,Tony Story 4 and Honeyland
Jo jo is a lousy movie
I’m always afraid to pick the stuff I’m rooting for. 🙂 I’m usually afraid to even proclaim them the favorites, but in Once’s case there are clear stats reasons to assume it is, at PGA, so I’m doing it.
“I really feel like it’s going to be a cruel loss for me in the end with Oscar. I can’t believe it. But I’ll get over it.”
To be fair, you probably shouldn’t trust your own objectivity in this matter, given how often you’ve had to suffer such outcomes recently. 🙂 Were I in your position (and not as into the stats), I’d probably feel and think very similarly. (But I feel like that also wouldn’t be particularly objective on my part.) I, at least, still have relatively fresh in my memory the times I was both predicting and rooting for Birdman or 12 Years a Slave (even Spotlight, which was my unofficial prediction that year, in addition to my favorite – at least of the nominees), so I’m not as inclined as you to be overly pessimistic about BP, although I’ve certainly had my disappointments since…
Is PGA televised? Does anyone know?
I love it. It’s one of the films I am most passionate about. I don’t say much about it because there is a snarky cadre that runs it down, and it p’s me off. I saw all five best supporting actor nominees and think that Pitt is the best in a very crowded field. He deserves this wholeheartedly. I want Tarantino, Pitt, and the movie to win very badly.
I like how the movie works on many levels and has multiple storylines that I am really into. There are also several set pieces that are wonderful, and the use of music, costumes, and the like are stellar. I can’t say enough good things about it.
I loved La La Land several years ago, esp. the ending, but I haven’t watched its ending as much as I have already watched the ending of Once after only having it a month. (I’m not a Tarantino fan girl. I really enjoyed Inglourious and Pulp Fiction, but I only saw the latter a few months ago.)
good point
I am the opposite. That’s kinda neat. I LOVE Once but am picking 1917 because I honestly think it’s what the majority will consider the greatest producing achievement. Sigh. Here we go again.
I picked 1917 as well for the same reason. I was afraid to pick something I loved. I really feel like it’s going to be a cruel loss for me in the end with Oscar. I can’t believe it. But I’ll get over it.
I picked 1917, Missing Link, Apollo 11. Not confident.
I thought it was quite good & interesting, but couldn’t connect with it much, or at all. (Joker.) l agree it probably can win, but don’t really expect it. Not after nothing but Phoenix (above the line) at GG & CC, plus the snubs. Birdman and The King’s Speech were winning screenplay, which is a much bigger deal…
It’s Tarantino, it’s indulgent, overlong, rambling and excessively and gratuitously violent. I’d rather anything else win, even Marriage Boring.
Once is the favourite I think. Who knows though how a preferential ballot could go? This year seems tight
1917 is a producers film. 7 months from shooting to release for a blockbuster film is pretty great. Taking a risk on virtually unknown leads and making a box office success is pretty good too. It’s the new kid on the block too, I think it’s a real threat.
Things shifting for 1917 for BP on Gold Derby. Current Expert BP picks: OUATIH 9, 1917 5 and Parasite 2.
I’m thinking of predicting Joker for PGA.
The 11 nominations made a huge statement.
While it’s devisive, there’s much passion behind it.
I thought it was brilliant my first viewing (going to watch again soon). A hard watch, disturbing, but also an allegory that makes you think a lot about how we treat each other within society.
I think it may or may not have trouble in the preferential voting system. I can see Joker being in many number 1, 2 and 3’s.
OUATIH could get the PGA and the 50% though… I’m just not so confident it has that much support.
Then there’s 1917.
This year will be tight!
I think you’ll find a lot of people who love Once around here… Though it is very hard to discuss without spoilers which is probably why you haven’t seen much discussion about it around here. But yes Brad Pitt completely deserves the win, he just completely goes for it, embodying this really nuts role while also finding heaps of humanity in it and then laying out the Hollywood charm all at the same time. It’s not a career win its a people genuinely love him in this role win. It helps that he is almost lead. I personally love Margot Robbie in it too though.
I put in 1917 in the contest, almost 100% for insurance purposes (with Toy Story 4 and Apollo 11, after some thought and research, in those cases – to at least do my best to give the insurance a chance to come into play). If Parasite wins it’ll all be over anyway (plus I don’t think that’s very likely); if The Irishman wins there’s probably no way around it and I’ll have to predict it for the BP win in the end (even though I’ll still have a lot of trouble believing it), no matter what follows; and if Jojo wins, I don’t know, it just doesn’t feel like such a big problem for my system… (Plus, again, I’m fairly confident it won’t.) 1917 winning is the only thing that feels like it would make things truly awkward for my final stats prediction (maybe also Joker), because it would mess up Once’s chances without offering up a truly stats-valid alternative I could switch to, and it also seems somewhat plausible, so that’s the one I feel I need to insure against.
My real PGA prediction is, of course, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
I have a question regarding Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I haven’t seen the film yet, and I plan to this week. But I haven’t really heard much about it – great or bad. I’ve heard a few people say they enjoyed it, but there was no discussion after that. Is this movie really going to win best picture? Even Brad Pitt seems to be winning Best Supporting Actor “because he’s due/because he’s the man!” Does he really deserve the Oscar against his competition? I am not doubting his abilities, but I just find it strange that I don’t hear the film discussed as the other Best Picture nominees. That tells me it could be the vanilla, easy choice that doesn’t offend- and how I got Green Book right last year was that very way of thinking; a movie everyone seems to like, nobody hates, and it won the magic three (3): Picture, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay. (And even Green Book had backlash)
I want 1917 to win. It’s marvelous. But I am already hearing split opinions, and those thinking it’s just a gimmick (which it certainly isn’t). Parasite would be my second choice, but the passion seems to have died down a bit and the foreign element puts a dent into it. Joker is divisive, as is Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit. Ford v Ferrari couldn’t even earn Christian Bale the deserved Best Actor nomination but it gets in for Best Pic and just three techs. Earlier it was The Irishman, but now the consensus is it’s a long snooze fest that’s been done before. And finally whilst Little Women is enjoying raves, I personally didn’t care for it. (SPOILER—- its told out of chronological order, which was a huge distraction for me and didn’t allow me to get involved. I prefer the Winona Ryder movie. And Kirsten Dunst is way funnier as Amy then Florence Pugh’s surprisingly hard edged interpretation of the character). Saoirse Ronan was the only actor I actually really enjoyed throughout.
So sorry to ramble on, but I would be curious as to why Once Upon a Time… is getting all the glory when it’s not really in the discussion past the awards it will win/was nominated for.
PS- After rewatching Marriage Story, I must have been irritable before because I really liked Johansson this time. I hated her before. That’s strange isn’t it? I loathed her performance because I felt she was trying too hard and the character was not likable. But a rewatch allowed me to see how her husband DID treat her during the marriage, and suddenly all her dialogue wasn’t corny anymore. I think she and Driver did wonderful jobs.
I also Think 1917 is going to take technical categories and probabily also director. Anyway it missed editing simply because it has no editing. The one shot take is all about a cinematography prestige. I see jojo rabbit and irishman ad the main contenders for hollywood but there is joker too. And it is a resl threat. Will Joker with 11 nominations and more than 1 bilion at the box office win best actor category only? Doubt it.
I do think the big weakness of Joker is a very OK script that is elevated by Joaquin and all the fantastic crafts but my problem with the script certainly isn’t that it doesn’t spoonfeed the audience.
Yes i also would say that Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit are the frontrunners because i think in the preferential ballott vote everyone is going to put them in the top positions. Anyway best picture race this year is absolutely insane because we also have irishman, joker and 1917 that got a lot of nominations and what really matter : they got nominations in EVERY important category (even tough 1917 missed acting nominations).
And I’m not ultimately sure it pulled that off
I guess if Hollywood wins the PGA, it will be pretty hard not to predict it for BP. Especially as it can’t lose the WGA. Maybe if Jojo Rabbit wins the WGA (and maybe even the Scripter) I’ll go with that one. Tough.
Just realized David Heyman, producer of Marriage Story and OUATIH, is competing against himself at the PGAs and Oscars.
There’s nothing wrong with the movie not spelling out how you’re supposed to feel. If anything, I would say that’s to be appreciated.
You can watch the third act and despise the character, and yet see the greater problems of the society in that movie, especially as presented in the first two acts, and how those problems can exagerbate the issues of an already disturbed individual.
If done well, fence-sitting isn’t a problem.
Are you the Joker?
Outside of twitter banshees, who probably didn’t even see Joker, the movie played well with female general audience. How I know? Female-driven movies tend to be leggy and this one was very leggy. Doesn’t mean it’ll win PGA, just that social media distorts the real picture. there’s much less resistance to this movie than made out to be.
My brain says OUATIH but my heart says 1917. I’m going with OUATIH but I won’t be shocked if 1917 prevails both there and at DGA. Both movies really need this in order to overcome its weaknesses. I really think the PGA will match with the Oscar again this year.
It did have editing. Even won the Critics’ Choice for it.
So did Birdman. And Birdman got nominated for the ACE Eddies as well. 1917 didn’t. It is a miss, even if not entirely unexpected.
I am guessing 1917 because I would think, sight-unseen, it does better on a preferential ballot than Tarantino’s I daresay flawed film. And it’s the most intricate production. Someone should run a correlation between PGA and an Editing nomination though. Has the winner ever missed Editing, other than Birdman, which swept? Even in a tricky split year, Roma lost the big prize AND PGA AND missed out on an editing nom — and Green Book had it beat in all 3 arenas. Any other similar split years? Only in recent years have we faced such split years represented by films with one or more crucial Oscar snubs.
That’s on the audience, not the filmmaker. People are being spoonfed too much nowadays.
1917 absolutely didn’t get all important nominations. It missed both acting AND editing. No films that missed both ever won, I believe.
And I don’t think Jojo Rabbit is as universally beloved as some believe.
So is Emma Tillinger Koskoff (OUaTiH, The Irishman).
I’m not sure if a segment of the audience deciding that it’s a GOOD thing that Arthur Fleck becomes a serial killer is really that great in the long run.
I think both films let us decide for ourselves what to think, which is a good thing. My problems with Joker are very different.
I think I finally get what bugs me about Joker. It’s the same thing that hurt Wolf of Wall Street. After all the stylishly told atrocities are done and the credits are rolling, much like Jordan Belfort, what EXACTLY are we supposed to think of Arthur Fleck and what he did? Joker tries to have it both ways just like Wolf did.
I think Once Upon a Time wins due to the wild card that Brad Pitt is a well respected producer in the industry and has built up a lot of good will (and an Oscar) from that side gig.
Joker, because I want to see the chaos..
Emma Tillinger Koskoff… Irishman and Joker.
I’m sure Hollywood will win producers guild awards but i’m less sure about oscars. If you see the wins in recent years all the movies that won best picture also had a editing nomination. The only movie that doesn’t stand this rule was Birdman that was a single long shot movie so there was no editing. The question is : if 1917 wins best picture it wouldn’t be a surprise because it is in the “birdman category” with no editing but what about hollywood? Hollywood has to compete against irishman, jojo rabbit and joker that have also a editing nomination as well as acting and director nominees. Ok you can say “jojo rabbit have not director nomination” but for the best picture category an editing nomination is more important than a director one (take green book as an example).
is anyone voting for Frozen 2 in animated? Not even pity votes? have mercy. C’mon.
😉
I vote Joker
I went chaos and voted Joker.