Predictions Friday – The BAFTAs Are Coming! The BAFTAs Are Coming! And Always Too Soon!

The Oscar race is speeding by at a record pace. This weekend we will hear from the BAFTA, the British Academy of Film and Television.

The BAFTA changed their voting procedure back in 2012. You can look at years before that if you want to but I’m not sure the results would be the same. Maybe they would be. Beginning in 2012 they switched from a three-round process that included longlists to a two-round one, and opened up final voting in all categories to all voters (before, individual craft branch members would vote for the winners in their craft category: e.g., only directors could vote for the Best Director winner, only editors could vote for Best Editing, etc.). In short, BAFTA voting now is a lot like the Academy’s, but without the preferential ballot in Best Picture — and honestly that makes a lot of difference.

The key to know about the BAFTA is that they haven’t matched with Oscar on Best Picture since 12 Years a Slave. That’s partly because they don’t use the preferential ballot as the Oscars do. Let’s take a look at BAFTA Best Picture and Best Director, factoring in PGA (preferential) and DGA (non-preferential plurality):

As you can see, we’re still in unknown territory because La La Land really messes up the stats. A movie can win almost everything heading into the race, but then get cut short at the last minute BECAUSE of the preferential ballot. Whatever happened to La La Land en route to Oscar caused it to tumble. We know what that likely was: shock from Donald Trump and being a movie that was the right movie at the wrong time.

Now let’s quickly look at BAFTA Best Picture/Best Director/Best Screenplay nominees in comparison to Oscar:

What’s immediately noticeable is that 1917 does not have a screenplay nomination, although it’s not necessary to have one to win — a film can lack that and go on to win the BAFTA. The Revenant is the only one since 2009 that has. The Revenant did not earn a screenplay nomination at the WGA or at the Oscars either, but 1917 did. So that makes them a bit different, I’d say.

Moving on to Best Actor, the past five winners at BAFTA have gone on to win the Oscar. That’s a pretty good track record. For Best Actress, the past six have gone on to win the Oscar.

All in all, I’d say that there is a 50/50 chance either Parasite or 1917 takes the BAFTA and either Sam Mendes or Bong Joon Ho wins Best Director. The London Critics went with Parasite, and that seems like a very BAFTA film to choose.

On the other hand, the First World War was an extremely important conflict for the British people. Will they care about that historical significance enough for 1917 to become their winner? Or will Parasite resonate more?

Just because a film wins at BAFTA doesn’t necessarily mean it will win at Oscar. La La Land remains our best example of how things can go so completely haywire in just a few short weeks.

Right now, this is how I personally see the Oscar race pre-WGA, pre-BAFTA:

Best Picture
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Jojo Rabbit

Best Director
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Editing
Parasite
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman

Cinematography
1917

Production Design
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Parasite