The Screen Actors Guild will also announce their top prizes this weekend. Since the Screen Actors Guild is now SAG-AFTRA and not just SAG, they don’t always align with the Academy as well as they used to. Last year, for instance, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk was not nominated for a SAG but won the Oscar, while Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place was not nominated for an Oscar but won the SAG. Idris Elba was not nominated for the Oscar for Beasts of No Nation but won the SAG in a year of protesting the preponderance of white nominees at the Oscars.
The big focus heading into this weekend won’t just be on what is going to win the Best Cast ensemble prize and whether or not that matches the Producers Guild prize (if it does, the Best Picture race is likely decided) — it will also be on those nominees not also nominated for the Oscar. This year, that’s Lupita Nyong’o for Us and especially Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers. Can the frontrunners in their categories (Renee Zellweger and Laura Dern, respectively) still prevail?
I don’t know the answer to that. We’re talking about 120,000 voters here. Are they going to be caught up in the loop of outrage about these omissions? Jennifer Lopez got a big yelp over at the New York Times. Lopez got yet a second op-ed by Kyle Buchanan, who says that films fronted by women were “underseen,” even though Hustlers made over $100 million and Little Women is on its way towards that. Not getting the “underseen” part, especially considering what a big star Lopez is.
But neither of these pieces acknowledge the obvious: Little Women was pushed through by critics and by The NY Times and by hype. And ultimately the Academy liked Little Women more, as the nominations overall prove. That is what likely bumped Nyong’o and Lopez — the push for Little Women resulted in Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh getting nominations instead.
Florence Pugh did not have a Globe nor a SAG nom, whereas Kathy Bates had a Globe, while Scarlett Johansson had a SAG. Lopez had both. But to make way for Pugh, someone else had to go. The votes were probably close. Then again, Buchanan could be onto something: with the rushed season, did voters even have time to see everything? The nominations would indicate that the same movies were repeatedly cited in the majority of the categories, which could mean that only a handful were even watched. Either way, what matters more is what message got out. And how that will play into voting in the final stretch.
Here are the actresses that have Globe/SAG/Oscar:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Here are those that have SAG + Oscar:
Scarlett Johnasson, Jojo Rabbit
And with Globe + Oscar:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Globe and SAG but no Oscar:
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
SAG only:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Globe only:
Annette Bening, The Report
Oscar only:
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Laura Dern is on a roll and Marriage Story is beloved. But Jennifer Lopez is an incredibly big star. So, my friends, it’s a toss up. But I would expect Dern would get a bit of a boost from Big Little Lies, which is very popular among these particular voters since they also do TV. So in a sense, she’s winning for both.
Either way, we’ll be posting our predictions later in the week. Here is your chance to predict.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
I don’t think I could take it if Jojo wins SAG or BP or anything…
I voted the same way though Adam Driver not Phoenix should win best actor
I am hoping to be correct. I love Once and Ford.
I’m coming around to the notion that Dern is the more vulnerable actress frontrunner too… But you have to assume a ScarJo win in supporting would indicate a Jojo BP win (not necessarily, but most of the time), and I still don’t believe in that, so I don’t expect it.
🙂
I *very* nearly picked this slate precisely but switched Lupita back to Renee at the last moment. I think the whiteness of the winners, combined with OUATIH already being recognized through Pitt and Stunt Ensemble, will lead a lot of voters to go with Parasite
Well that didn’t help Joe Pesci at the Golden Globes.
I get what you’re saying, but you said it as if she alone has that advantage over everyone else in her category.
Well done Julie! I’m picking the same six!
Janney was really solid that year.
I picked Ford v Ferrari without knowing this. I just picked Once and Ford for the ensembles because I like them the best. YAY!
Do you mean for nominations or as a movie? For both, I don’t think “serious Oscarwatchers” are monolithic. I based that, on, I don’t know—–a THOUSAND hours of Oscar podcasts and reading of Oscar sites over the last 20+ years.
I voted for Once, Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, Dern, and Ford v Ferrari. I picked what my heart wanted for the first and last categories. 🙂 🙂
I think if we thought anyone was a tad shaky out of those four frontrunners that year it was Sam Rockwell, and that’s only because Woody Harrelson was nominated too, which could’ve took a few votes away from him. Still, I think Rockwell won it by a landslide, just not as big of landslide as Oldman, McDormand, and Janney.
I get what you’re saying, but you said it as if she alone has that advantage over everyone else in her category.
Scarlett Johansson is amazing in Marriage Story, and in my opinion her best performance yet. However, it’s also not a transformative performance, and some of her nominees do give a transformative role, which puts her at a disadvantage.
anecdotal, but I know several SAG voters who didn’t have the time to see Little Women before nomination voting closed. So it’s entirely possible that not enough SAG members saw the film in time for it to muster nominations. Bombshell by contrast went balls to the wall with the parties surrounding their early screenings.
What? Pugh did not take JLo’s spot. Kathy Bates did. Pugh has had the type of dynamite star-making year that frequently gets recognized at the Oscars. I’ve had her in since the first day that the Gold Derby prediction center opened for noms. Pugh had BAFTA, who unlike SAG, actually had a chance to see Little Women. And they have overlap with the Academy unlike the Globes. She also showed up at Critics Choice. Bates is obviously the surprise nominee (having only a Globe nom, Richard Jewell’s only mention of the ceremony) that took Jennifer Lopez’s spot.
We’re discussing importance of stats, not “good taste”
Because the Globes are weird and the CC only tries to predict.
Of course she is. But Scarlett also plays one, was my point.
Very interesting! I agree with all of your picks with the exception of Jojo Rabbit for Best Cast. What’s your reasoning?
Renée is not playing an actress?! Judy Garland is not an actress?!
Well that didn’t hold Renée back from winning the Globe and Critics Choice so far.
I don’t think it’s a predictor whatsoever.
On the Gerwig controversy..
I saw Little Women last night, finally. And I have never ready the book or seen the other movie versions. So I was truly experiencing this story for the first time, which is helpful for the ongoing dispute over how much Gerwig should be credited/awarded for it.
Well, the movie was wonderful. There is no doubt that if this were the first time this story was being filmed, it would be one of the top Best Picture contenders. It should be now. It was in the same spirit and quality of the best period pieces of the ’80s and ’90s that got dozens of Oscar nods (Sense & Sensibility, etc.) I can’t see how a serious Oscarwatcher would rank it below Joker, Jojo Rabbit, or most of the others.
Also wondering if voters are remorseful in part for overlooking 7 time nominee Glenn Close and will be more circumspect in giving Renee her 2nd Oscar. You’re right, ‘Judy’ is not a major player. The Garland factor is there, but Scarlett fits the pattern more of the past rewarding Reese, Jennifer, Marion, Gwyneth. And Scarlett has 2 nominations too. I don’t know, I’ve not been sold on Renee winning since October when I saw the movie but I’m not yet necessarily Not predicting her either. Want to see SAG and BAFTA first
In those cases, the perceived frontrunners, Stallone and King were not in the race. Dern also has the TV people with Big Little Lies. And she is a big union person.
Not sure that this is a widespread motivation for most guild voters. They vote for whom they want to vote for, who they believe gave the best performance not who is payback or compensation unless overwhelmingly the perception is that they were wronged ABOVE everyone else in the category. Not sure that will apply for Jlo
I think it may be a tad too early for it to be that locked. SAG and BAFTA still to come. The guys yes, but the women I’m not fully sold on both Renee and Laura as this year’s Oscar winners.
I’m very happy that downvotes are now visible by name. Perhaps will stop or limit the amount of people who just downvote anything they don’t perfectly agree with, rather than argue in comments.
Movie Nerd, you are down voting facts, there wasn’t even a hint of personal opinion in that comment of mine.
Those are my contest entries. 🙂 Parasite more as insurance, but it CAN win…
I’m curious, if anyone is willing to share their thoughts on the following…
What would it mean – if anything – if Joker were to win Stunt Ensemble? Given the overwhelming presence of Phoenix in the movie and his pretty much locked status, with little room for anyone else in the film, would it signify continued broad support for the movie, recognizing it in a category that is less eyebrow-raising than the main ensemble one?
Would Joker winning that , along Phoenix, move it into the top 3 (depending on PGA as well)?
If that scenario pans out, then I’d predict “Parasite” to have the edge for BP.
Sasha, if you think Florence Pugh took the Jennifer Lopez slot, why did you predict both of them to show up in the category while leaving Kathy Bates out?
I feel like there was a smidge of doubt with Janney. But yes, that year was generally comparable to this one.
That was kinda the point of my question?
Joker was never going to show up in ensemble. But its presence in stunt ensemble is as much a show of support as The Irishman showing there (what stunts did either of them have?).
Would Joker winning both categories it’s nominated in and OUATIH winning Best Ensemble solidify OUATIH as the front-runner but move Joker up into contention more?
Yes, and the idea that Blunt winning SAG last year was a response to the Oscar snub is overstated. Blunt was a double nominee at SAG, having a nod in the lead for Mary Poppins, and every actor was reserving that spot for Glenn Close. And the supporting field was wide open since Regina King was not there. It was easy to tick Emily’s name.
As for Elba… First, his movie was also nominated in SAG Ensemble. He’s an actor’s actor also multiply nominated that year for his TV works. And if there was a response to his Oscar snub, it was attached with the inaugural fever pitched Oscar So White crusade that year.
Lopez’s narrative is nowhere near as significant as the two above.
What is wrong with you??? Don’t you know that this is where Little Women is bashed on a daily basis? Accept all hostilities towards it, including erroneous stats. Get with the program!
If Pesci wins, it is because of all the De Niro snubs.
But she doesn’t have a film that’s in the conversation in any way.
Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, Janney
How does Spike Lee not receiving deserved attention means that Gerwig shouldn’t either?
I’m predicting a threeway…
SAG Ensemble: Parasite
PGA: Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
DGA: 1917
Favorites for Actor and both Supporting. But I think Lupita or Erivo will upset in Actress, given BAFTA and Oscar drama.
Stunt is difficult to predict. Will need to mull that one over a bit.
I thought also Johansson could surprise in Best Actress instead BUT I think Supp Actress could be more likely…
I’m going for FVF in Stunt Ensemble too.
So far I’m thinking
Film Ensembe: Parasite (or OUATIH)
Actor: Phoenix
Actress: Zellweger
Supp Actor: Pitt
Supp Actress: Dern (possible Johansson here for a spoiler).
Actor : Phoenix
Actress : Johansson
Supp. Actor : Pitt
Supp Actress : Dern
Ensembl: Irishman
Ensemble: Parasite (one can dream. The actors might want to change the no-Asians-in-the-Oscars narrative)
Actress: Lupita Nyong’o
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
Stunt Ensemble: OUATIH
That is incorrect. Good taste kicked out JLo, not any other performer.
I just looked that up, you’re right! Yeah, that’s ridiculous.
Agreed. There is always one newcomer “it” girl in this category, and Pugh had a great year not only with LW but with Midsommar (and to a lesser extent, FIghting with My Family). I actually wouldn’t be shocked if she won ala Harden, Tomei, etc. Supp. Actress loves to often shock. And it would be a way to further honor Gerwig. If they are so inclined, that is.
I don’t think Hanks really has a chance, but I would be overjoyed if Parasite took Ensemble. Although I loved both OUATIH and Irishman.
Actually Kurt Russell isn’t part of the nominated cast if i remember correctly… Which is BS
I knew Endgame would be at least very close to the most predicted even before looking on Gold Derby. I just got that impression from discussions over here throughout this season… (Plus the BFCA wins.)
It seems crazy that it is Avengers at gold derby. I am going with FvF too but I assumed I was just following the pack and doing what everyone is doing by choosing it…
This year is the most locked I can remember. Usually at least one of 4 is not clear.
No surprises.
Definitely! It’s Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, Kurt Russell, and Dakota Fanning to name a few. The A-list status of the cast and the fact that it has film actors and TV actors in the movie will push it over the edge.
Fuck off, whoever feels the pathetic need to downvote a predictions list.
But the problem there is there are an equal number of people who say Al Pacino was the best in The Irishman, so that’s a classic vote split.
I’m predicting the same six!
B.T.W. least one forgets Ronan and Buckley are Irish 😉
ensemble: OUATIH
actress: Johansson (im going to be bold)
actor: Phoenix
supp. actress: Dern
supp. actor: Pitt
stunt ensemble: Avengers: Endgame
I’m not sure how much Lopez’s snub will be a factor since they’ve been voting since the 17th. And they only have until this 17th left to vote. Would there have been a longer period to digest the Elba and Blunt snubs? Four days out of 31 might not make that much of a difference.
OUATIH
Zellweger
Phoenix
Dern
Pitt
FvF
True. Such a horrible snub that the SAG, themselves, will provide the healing.
I LOL’ed at Greta of Arc.
But seriously, there’s more scolding of Greta by Sasha than there are think-pieces supporting Greta.
Yes — Sasha can’t have it both ways. Either SAG isn’t as influential with Oscar because it has a larger voting pool post-AFTRA merger, or it is (Lopez had SAG, Bates did not).
Bates is the one who kicked out Lopez, not Pugh.
“Little Women was getting in and Ronan and Pugh were getting in, especially after BAFTA.”
Yes, the lateness of BAFTA keeps some real contenders out of sight until they pop with BAFTA. But Pugh and Ronan were always going to get in thanks to Brit Block. They didn’t push out anyone. It’s just that support for them became visible with BAFTA noms. same goes for Pryce.
Mind you, BAFTA and Brit Block are not all-mighty. They couldn’t save Taron, they couldn’t passion-vote Buckley.
Pugh was going to show up in AMPAS line-up thanks to BAFTA. So she didn’t push out Jlo for she had her spot, it just wasn’t visible until her precursor (that nominated her). JLo was locked for BAFTA snub, while Pugh was locked for BAFTA nom. JLo lost to Robbie in OUATIH. Then Robbie in OUATIH was replaced by Bates in AMPAS line-up so Bates pushed out JLo.
Some Brits in late movies tend to be “invisible” contenders until BAFTA. Which means all eyes until then are on visible “pretenders”.
I’m guessing OUATIH for PGA and SAG Ensemble but for excitement sake i hope they’re different winners… Same goes for DGA (Mendes)
I have a feeling that everybody is going to correctly predict at least 4 wins.
Film Ensemble: The Irishman
Lead Actress: Zellweger – stone cold lock
Lead Actor: Phoenix – stone cold lock
Supporting Actress: Dern – stone cold lock
Supporting Actor: Pitt – stone cold lock
Stunt Ensemble: Joker
Incorrect. Stats-wise Kathy Bates who only had a Golden Globe nomination (not SAG) was way behind Florence Pugh who had Bafta and Critics Choice nominations so if fingers must be pointed at the one who knocked out Lopez, then that person shouldn’t be Pugh.
As for Ronan / Nyong’O, once again, stats-wise former was stronger. Ronan had Bafta, Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations while Nyong’O had Critics Choice and SAG that was trumped by the trio of big nods Ronan got, especially since her film popped up in picture and writing at the guilds, too, while US was nowhere to be found.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if someone who was snubbed at the Oscars, won, either. Question is who.
Renée is pretty much a lock. Not as big of a lock as Joaquin and Brad, but she has everything we look for in a Lead Acting contender. The physical transformation, playing an iconic person, and she does extra by doing her own singing.
I’m tempted to say OUATIH is also our frontrunner here, but I could see them going for Parasite to spread the wealth and make up for the lack of individual nomination, or not, so I’m in a state of perplex hesitation concerning the Best Ensemble category.
A PGA nominee has won the Stunt Ensemble award all eight times there was at least one in the lineup, so Endgame probably won’t win this, even though it’s in first at Gold Derby (combined odds). I’m going with Ford v Ferrari (part insurance, of course). SAG seems to have liked it more than AMPAS, given the Bale nomination. Could be Once, too, or even Joker of course. Can The Irishman win this?! Seems unlikely, at first glance…
In which category?
I’m going to rank them all from biggest lock to vulnerable to an upset:
1. Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix: Based on degree of difficulty and the love for Joker this season as a whole, there’s zero chance he’s losing this.
2. Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt: Also, no chance he’s losing this based on how his category lined up.
3. Lead Actress: Renée Zellweger: Only weakness is Judy is not a major awards player beyond her. But still she’s very solid to win this, given that she has the physical transformation, she’s playing an iconic person (an actress by the way), and gets bonus points for doing her own singing. There also isn’t that same passion for any of her competitors that there is for her.
4. Cast In a Motion Picture: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The film stars actors who are both primarily film actors and primarily TV actors. That and the A-List status of most of the cast will give it the win, but there is room for Parasite to surprise. No other film has a chance, not even The Irishman sadly.
5. Supporting Actress: Laura Dern: She seems solid, but because her role is not THAT big, that in my opinion makes room for a surprise in this category if any. It could be Scarjo, maybe Margot Robbie, or because more SAG voters have seen Hustlers, maybe we get an Emily Blunt like surprise with J-Lo winning. Not that I actually think J-Lo will win, but I was talking to a friend of mine who’s a well known Oscar pundit and he told me more SAG voters have seen Hustlers than Marriage Story.
I think it will play to the Phoenix, Zellwegger, Dern, Pitt quartet like all the other awards have.
I can’t wait for all the self righteous whining and hectoring that Greta of Arc was shamefully robbed of her fourth career Oscar nomination in three years (for comparison sake, it took Spike Lee 29 years between Oscar nomination #2 and #3. Get back to us when you make Do the Right Thing, Greta)
Yes they are and BAFTA gives them support too. 🙂
I think that truncated season is the reason. they expected Bombshell to blow up due to subject matter but it didn’t catch on except in acting. LW proved more accessible though not as big a player as some expected due to Gerwig’s clout.
Agreed. Taron did look solid after hitting all precursors but I guess Pope >> Elton. At least after Freddie win.
Right, but they were already getting Saoirse and Pryce in for those categories. We couldn’t be blamed for thinking Taron was the stronger of the two what with the Globe win, SAG nom, and Elton’s campaigning and given that both missed BFCA and Pryce was very lowkey and often overshadowed by a category-frauding Hopkins.
Yes and for whatever reason LW wasn’t as big a player as expected all season and virtually missed SAG altogether
Parasite – Phoenix – Zellweger – Pitt – Dern – Ford v Ferrari
Ensemble – will win/should win: Parasite
Actor – will win: Phoenix; should win: Bale
Actress – will win: Zellweger; should win: Nyong’o
Supporting Actor – will win: Pitt; should win: Foxx
Supporting Actress – will win: Dern; should win: undecided/don’t care
Stunts – will win: Ford v Ferrari; should win: Avengers: Endgame
Ensemble – Hollywood (this still bugs me but for the time being I’m betting on a sweep)
Actor – Phoenix
Actress – Johansson (She’s playing an actress. Anyway, I’m going to keep predicting her until the end, no matter what happens at the precursors.)
Supp. Actor – Pitt
Supp Actress – Dern
Stunts – Ford v Ferrari (idk)
Phoenix will best actor but Driver should.
well, it’s AFTRA so disconnect is possible. Though Blunt won cause King wasn’t nominated. All presumed frontrunners are this time.
Jojo
Joaquin
Renee
Brad
Laura
Endgame
I don’t agree with this analysis. Little Women was getting in and Ronan and Pugh were getting in, especially after BAFTA. The Brits help their own. Pugh’s Globe miss was strange, but obviously the film wasn’t performing superbly well at any of the precursors and probably wasn’t seen by SAG in time. I knew JLo would be snubbed; the question was just who was going to overtake her. People like her and Aniston and Beyonce who are all about self-promotion rather than the craft of acting or storytelling or songwriting, and/or who show off the least bit of desperation for a win, always miss. Legend Bates can get in for a baity role in an Eastwood drama no one is nominating anywhere else. JLo can’t play herself as a hard-on-her-luck dancing stripper, attempt arguable category fraud, and get a nomination from the notoriously elitist Academy. Once the BAFTA snub happened, it was a done deal. It was just a matter of whether Nai Nai or Bates took her out. And make no mistake, it was Bates and not Pugh or Scarjo who took her spot. Pugh had BFCA as well as BAFTA. So she had the combo of British love and critical support for being one of the legit best perfs in an incredibly weak category. This is the weakest the category has been in years. Still, it wasn’t enough to get JLo in because they couldn’t see past JLo and the machine and weren’t nominating the movie otherwise.
I went Jojo – Phoenix – Zellweger – Pitt – Dern – Ford v Ferrari
I think Pesci surprises here.
Ensemble: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
S. Actor: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
S. Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story