One of the things that separates the Oscars from any other award show is that it is, in its purest sense, about all the people who make movies awarding the movies they think are best. That’s what it is supposed to be — but it is, of course, not quite that. There are too many films to watch ,so most of them don’t even get seen. The voters tend to favor films with the best publicity teams (these unsung heroes of awards season should have their own category, considering the expert and essential job they do to bring the winners to the forefront). But publicity can only take you so far. Plenty of films have great publicity teams pushing them, but the movie they handle has to be great. Not just great in the eyes of a few, but so great that lots of people can agree on its greatness. Many measures of value go into to determining a film’s Oscar-worthiness. Timing is a key factor: is this the right time or the wrong time for this film? How much a movie earned at the box office can sometimes mess with perception so that years from now the film remains beloved and no one cares how much money it made, or, conversely, a film that once made a lot of money and seemed like a big deal at the time is now a movie no one watches or even talks about.
The one driving force behind almost every Best Picture winner, though, is the acting, and it helps to have broad ensemble appeal. Green Book broke one of the fundamental rules of Best Picture winners being mostly a “two-hander,” i.e., the film was mostly driven by its two lead performances. But Green Book did have another important element, and that was a powerful male performance to dominate the narrative. Whether the performance is nominated for Best Actor or not, that central male performance often seems to determine whether a film will win Best Picture or not. There are rare exceptions, like Chicago in 2002. But let’s go back 20 years to see how these two fundamentals apply: ensemble + strong male protagonist:
2000: Gladiator — both, Russell Crowe won Best Actor
2001: A Beautiful Mind — both, Russell Crowe nominated for Best Actor
2002: Chicago — ensemble but female lead*
2003: Return of the King — big ensemble, Frodo lead, but no Best Actor nomination
2004: Million Dollar Baby — small-ish cast, Clint Eastwood nominated for Best Actor and drove the story, but Hilary Swank won Best Actress
2005: Crash — ensemble, no central male protagonist
2006: The Departed — big ensemble, Leonardo DiCaprio drove, not nominated for Best Actor
2007: No Country for Old Men — big ensemble, Josh Brolin not nominated for Best Actor
2008: Slumdog Millionaire — big ensemble, driven by Dev Patel’s character, not nominated for Best Actor
2009: The Hurt Locker — big ensemble, driven by Jeremy Renner’s nominated performance
2010: The King’s Speech — ensemble, Colin Firth wins Best Actor
2011: The Artist — ensemble, Jean DuJardin wins Best Actor
2012: Argo — ensemble, Ben Affleck drives film but not nominated for Best Actor
2013: 12 Years a Slave — big ensemble, Chiwetel Ejiofor nominated for Best Actor
2014: Birdman — big ensemble, Michael Keaton nominated for Best Actor
2015: Spotlight — big ensemble, no male lead but almost all male supporting actors
2016: Moonlight — ensemble, driven by a male protagonist but no lead actor nominated, but Mahershala Ali wins Best Supporting Actor
2017: The Shape of Water — big ensemble, driven by a female protagonist*
2018: Green Book — two-hander, driven by two male performances, Viggo Mortensen nominated for Best Actor and Mahershala Ali who wins Best Supporting Actor
So you see, despite it all, at the end of the day, most films that win Best Picture are driven by male performances (lead or supporting) and preferably an ensemble cast. It matters less if the lead actor is nominated, and lately, having a SAG ensemble nomination hasn’t mattered as much.
As we already know, most of the films contending for for Best Picture this year are male-driven:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, plus ensemble
1917 — George MacKay plus ensemble
The Irishman — Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, plus ensemble
Joker — Joaquin Phoenix
Parasite — ensemble, no central male lead
Jojo Rabbit — Roman Griffin Davis plus ensemble
Ford v Ferrari — Christian Bale and Matt Damon, plus ensemble
Then you have:
Little Women — ensemble cast driven by a female performance, Saoirse Ronan
Marriage Story — ensemble, I’d say mostly Adam Driver-driven but Scarlett Johansson has a big role too.
The low hanging fruit way of interpreting this is that the Academy is mostly white and mostly male, so naturally the films they like most would mirror that demographic. I certainly have thought this for a good many years. But lately I’ve begun to wonder. My theory is that men are the default. Men like watching men, women like watching men. But it isn’t always true that women like watching women or men like watching women, at least not the way some stories are presented, or the limited scope storytellers seem to give women, which usually boils down to relationship movies or empowerment movies.
By contrast, men are invited to participate in an array of human experiences. One of the reasons I like Queen & Slim so much is that the female protagonist is complex, flawed, and a bit in over her head. We’re watching her struggle in real time with her own pride and vulnerability. This isn’t an imposed self-esteem booster, as most are (suffocatingly so), but rather a human story of someone working through a difficult situation.
There are, of course, other films this year about women that don’t always lead to the point of empowerment or relationships, needless to say.
The biggest strength of a Best Picture contender is always driven by the performances, not the directing, not even the writing, and certainly not the crafts; the Academy honors all elements of a film to give it an award, but with a voting body dominated by actors, the acting always matters the most.
That makes this weekend’s SAG awards very interesting. With one of the frontrunners — or maybe THE frontrunner, 1917 — out of the ensemble race, we’ll have a chance to see which of the other films in the race are most popular with 120,000 SAG-AFTRA voters.
In 2012, SAG merged with AFTRA, upending the dynamics of how nominees are chosen, but they can still give us a pretty good idea of overall popularity. They aren’t strictly actors anymore doing the choosing: they are actors along with on-air radio and TV personalities. They will likely be picking the film that they liked best, or else awarding a film’s cast where they can’t award one of the film’s performers. The only ensemble nominee that appears to be winning another prize is Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. When Three Billboards won Outstanding Ensemble, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell also won acting prizes, so it isn’t always the case that they spread the wealth. Still, they might.
It’s hard to think about giving out an ensemble prize and not see that going to The Irishman, with heavy hitters like Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci. I would expect that film to maybe win there.
On the other hand, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood also has a spectacular ensemble, with Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio giving near career-best performances.
But what if it isn’t either of those? What if it’s Parasite? The brilliant cast of Parasite navigates the comedy and tragedy of this film so well. They aren’t stars in America, but they certainly display among the best acting of the year.
[this clip is a spoiler – don’t watch if you haven’t seen it]
The two remaining are Jojo Rabbit and Bombshell, and honestly, either of those could win too.
For Jojo Rabbit to win, it will tell me that the movie is as beloved as it was in Toronto when it won the People’s Choice Award.
Bombshell probably isn’t going to win, barring some fluke, considering almost every SAG winner for ensemble has a Best Picture nomination.
But remember: if the PGA and SAG align, the Best Picture race, barring some major catastrophe, is likely over.
So what think you, Oscarwatchers? Which ensemble cast is going to win this weekend?
[poll id=”58″]
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
CRIMINAL. American Hustle was the beginning of the end for me, what an overinflated fanfare of a movie, I’m right there with ya
I’m just leaving the theaters now from finally seeing it. Completely blown away by the cast, and their shutout from virtually all the awards – including the Oscars – is almost criminal. If American Hustle could get four nominations, Parasite deserved six.
Really? You disliked Hollywood that much? I’ve seen it three times, and even though I loved and raved about it the first time, it’s one of those films that I love even more every time I watch it.
That is very true. Think about why Birdman (even though it’s more Broadway, but still it’s about acting and show business) was able to win it over Boyhood.
Wow you certainly rank Jojo high here! I’ve mostly been discounting it though (a) i loved it and (b) i know it performed well in the noms.
Is your ranking about stats, or the film itself, or both? I’d go out on a limb and say only three films have a chance — OUATIH (40%), 1917 (30%) and Parasite (30%).
Ha i just wrote a post above that basically said what you had already said! Great minds …
I think Roma also had the drawback of being somewhat slow, for some people. The whole thing, while very well done, was rather depressing. But people love Parasite — it’s hugely entertaining, as well as being superb.
Parasite is the only film among the nine nominees that I think virtually every voter will rank in their top 3 or 4, even though they will already have voted for it for International Film. Every other film will have a number of detractors who rank it near the bottom of their ballots. This matters a lot in the preferential voting system.
It would be outstanding if Parasite won, partly because it is great, and partly because it is essential that some foreign film break the rule that a film can’t win International Film as well as BP.
I think that for Oscar Best Picture…
1. 1917
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
I do not think anyone else can win. But at this point I would say it is…
1917 40%
Jojo 30%
Once upon a Time 25%
Parasite 5%
I agree — i really doubt 1917 would have earned a SAG nomination. The extent of the cast is really quite limited. For me, the presence of Firth, Cumberbatch, Madden and Andrew Scott actually kind of worked against the realism of the film. It was almost silly, and made me laugh, when George McKay goes through all he goes through in the movie, and in the last 20 minutes struggles heroically to get his message to the commander, and who is there to greet him? — Benedict f-ing Cumberbatch.
Or 1969’s “Can Heironymus Merkin Ever Forget Mercy Humppe and Find True Happiness?”. I confess that for convenience I tend to refer to this movie as Mercy Hump.
It’s “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”. Write properly!!!
Just Jesse James.
The rather narrow path for 1917 to becoming the stats favorite:
a) if, as expected, it loses the WGA, then its best chance remains having all other contenders be eliminated as well, by some 97%+ very old stat, as strong or stronger than the two snub rule it’s already facing (which would require some movies to not win the WGA and, in The Irishman’s case, can only happen if I tweak my system a little, as I said earlier, adding the need to win the PGA, DGA or WGA, which the numbers support, and which would be a logical and impartial modification, in my opinion, and one other, also pretty logical minor tweak – I should specify that I’m sure my system is far from the only sound interpretation of the stats, but, for now, I have to work within its confines, since that’s my goal, getting it to work… plus it most likely describes the – relevant – stats balance about as well as any other system so I imagine it’s not exactly irrelevant to a general discussion of the overall stats situation for BP, even if it turns out to be faulty in some of its assumptions and rules, which, based on recent evidence, it probably will again at some point, even if it doesn’t this year), and ending up with the lowest weakness count of the bunch, once all is said and done. All of this happening would require:
– 1917 to win PGA+DGA (again, it 100% cannot do without this);
– The Irishman to not win SAG ensemble or WGA (plausible but uncertain);
– Parasite to not win the WGA (same);
– Once to not win SAG ensemble (the path is already getting narrower and narrower);
– Jojo Rabbit to not win SAG ensemble or WGA (probable but, again, running out of options);
– Joker to not win the WGA (same).
So, to sum up, it would need to win PGA+DGA, have precisely Parasite win SAG ensemble (since Bombshell, with no BP nomination at the Oscars, and other issues, isn’t a realistic threat there, stats-wise) and precisely Marriage Story and Little Women win the WGA (since without a BP nomination it’s also very rare for a movie to win there, last year’s anomalies notwithstanding – and 1917 can’t afford to have any of the other BP nominees win in either category, if it wants to win that count). Now, these are all, individually, it should be said, surprisingly plausible outcomes, but needing ALL of them to happen at once I think makes it highly unlikely for 1917 to become my system’s final BP prediction. (Not to mention how unlikely it is to even end up a valid winner at all, which, again, would require elimination to also happen for all other contenders, as it already has in its case.) But definitely not impossible…
b) if it shockingly wins the WGA, in addition to the PGA and DGA (I don’t think it can do without the last two), its final count will be -2 (editing and acting weaknesses only), and it will then only need The Irishman to not win either SAG or WGA, Jojo Rabbit to not win SAG AND WGA, and Parasite to lose the WGA. Then, all 9 nominees will be eliminated (again, provided I make the tweak) via some rule or another and none will be able to match its -2 score, either. (It should also be mentioned that 1917 would lose a tiebreak against pretty much any other movie in the BP race, according to my rules, were it to only tie for first in the weakness rankings.)
All of this would have been so much simpler had Once not missed for editing. 🙂 But who needs simple?!
For the record, the favorites for SAG ensemble:
1-2. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (editing snub, a feature among ensemble winners, might give it the slight edge)
The Irishman (both with no stats to beat)
3. Parasite – no Casting Society of America -Artios nomination = 9/10 stat for preferential era; was it even eligible there?! (Even if not, it’s maybe still a little clue.)
4. Jojo Rabbit – no BFCA ensemble nomination = 17/18 stat; (If it loses the PGA, it becomes 18/18.)
5. Bombshell – WGA snub = 100% stat, all-time; Oscar BP snub (23/23 since The Birdcage, in the 5-nominee era); BFCA screenplay snub (14/14 stat); BAFTA & Oscar screenplay snubs have weaker but probably still relevant stats attached as well.
That’s the thing, it might not be winning. A lot of voters will have it at the bottom of their ballots.
I’m curious, how did people at that time talk about that film online? What short form was used?
And let’s not forget Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.
Uses comma in place of full stop and an ellipsis that contain FOUR dots, but proceeds to tell people to ‘write properly’. OK.
But it’s exactly the reverse of that. Film = cast. TV = ensemble. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3dcb12e39a341329dcf992267ab4b067c9ede2a1fb6b3d56debcfcb16cfeba1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dfdee1ec9bf23c3d9fe76ca947098cca106d5dd78bde920cf26f783beca5b9f0.png
Used to be, as I recall. Not anymore.
I mean, they all had like 5 lines each. It really was a two-hander. (Although it definitely could have gotten in, had there been overwhelming support.)
I loved it and think it’s one of Tarantino’s best.
I just recall the obvious… it is the ONLY feel good film.
JB disappointed a lot because it was an adaptation of Elmore Leonard rather than another QT “original” and had a chance of pace including the soundtrack selection. It is a great film, even though no masterpiece, but felt completely different in tone to Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction which puzzled both critics and audiences… it was the same kind of film, yet different, and at some moments it did not look so QT. It is no wonder he needed a lot of time to get into Kill Bill afterwards and in some ways he went back to the over the top violence, but in a most creative way, including animation, for example.
1. Pulp Fiction
2. Reservoir Dogs
3. Inglorious Basterds
4. Kill Bill
5. Jackie Brown
6. Django Unchained
7. Death Proof
8. The Hateful Eight
9. Once upon a Time… in Hollywood
the only factor why it can win Best Picture, it is because Hollywood likes the films about themselves.
Exactly, I think he is a great director, but honestly, I do not think he deserved an Oscar for Directing with the only exception of Pulp Fiction and to a minor extent, Reservoir Dogs. The nom for Inglorious Basterds does not bother me, though, but the one for this one, does… because it comes for an ego trip and at the expense of Almodóvar, the Russo Brothers, Ari Aster or Jordan Peele, among others that faced bigger challenges and with way better results.
Or when they nominated for Adapted Screenplay that genius film that is Borat: Cultural Learnings of America to Make Benefit of Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan… or they multi nominated “Dr. Strangelove: or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb” or when they nominated Barbara Harris for Lead Actress for “Who is Harry Kellerman and why is he saying those terrible things about me?”
Out of the ones I have seen…
1. Parasite
2. Everybody Knows
3. Pain and Glory
4. 1917
5. Midsommar
Yeah they really showed him their hate when they gave him two major Oscars. Take THAT, Quentin!!!
And it was only nominated for one Oscar because of that. So the question still remains, if the film is that divisive, it won’t be winning Best Pic will it? We are constantly told here that divisive films lose and the films “everybody likes” win. Even if that film is Green Book.
YOU FORGOT THE “…”!!!
I’ll keep using the acronyms because there’s no reason to write such a long tittle like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all the time, specially in a long post (something I suppose you usually don’t do).
So, if you’re annoyed about that, that’s you problem, dude. Nobody cares about that.
#newstat?
Parasite is miles ahead in this category but all the other ensembles are superb as well. Not a single static character.
Maybe because TV show casts rotate/have guest stars throughout etc so they refer to the main CAST, while in a film the cast obviously can’t change so it’s an ENSEMBLE…? That’s the best reason that popped in my head.
They showed him their hate with eight nominations and two wins so far, surely OUATIH has no chance at all.
Honestly the only film that could win and it would be considered REALLY odd is BOMBSHELL given it’s lack of other support and no BP nod… Having said that the cast of BOMBSHELL was basically the only great thing about it… I’m betting on OUATIH but I could just as easily see THE IRISHMAN (this could be the biggest thing it wins) or PARASITE since it’s the most “ensembly” (if that makes any sense) and it has great support overall.
The mere fact that OUATIH’s nomination total is considerably higher than Jackie Brown‘s would suggest otherwise. And beyond that, the sort of audience member reaction being discussed here is unlikely to be widely shared in the Academy membership; if anything, I suspect the more toned-down approach for most of the run time would appeal to them.
But why at that point would his movie be winning best picture because the movie is so centered on all the things these people hate about Tarantino
I’m not saying it’s going to
Or Precious Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire! Or Birdman (or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)!
Oh I bet you were a blast back when The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford was released.
Voted for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Favourite of the year. Amazing cast !
Don’t be lazy…
ATTENTION EVERYONE:
From this day forward please, for the love of all things holy, stop using SAG, AFTRA, DGA, PGA, WGA and AMPAS. Only the following will be acceptable on this site…
Screen Actors Guild
American Federation of Television and Radio Artists
Directors Guild of America
Producers Guild of America
Writers Guild of America
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Society is on the brink of failure because of these acronyms. We cannot lose these long titles. Please do your part to help save humanity. Thank you. While you are at it, stop using contractions as well. And computers. Efficiency is killing us.
And it took them a long time to warm up to Scorsese.
Ohhhhhhhhh, now I get it lol.
You think a cast that includes Colin Firth, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Richard Madden wouldn’t typically get a Best Cast SAG nomination?
The film category is for performance by a cast and the TV awards are for performance by an ensemble. I’ve never been able to get a satisfactory answer as to why they’re named differently.
Because she’s basically silent in the actual film. Get it?
Jackie Brown has always been my favorite QT, in fact the only one that I actually love. When it came out, it was immediately embraced by many cinephiles. What made it divisive was the fact that it was a successful adaptation, which bothered some QT purists and impressed QT skeptics.
Somebody please stop the ridiculous acronyms: Once upon a Time in Hollywood is not OUATIH, Green Book is not GB, The King’s Speech is not TKS, Write properly please don’t lose that….
Jackie Brown has had the benefit of time to have an audience score of 85%. People may not remember as much now, but it was quite divisive and considered a bit of a letdown after Tarantino had such a big hit with Pulp Fiction. That film, much like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, is more laid back and mellow in its tone and pace than what audiences are typically used to from him. Perhaps the audience score for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will go up over time the way it has for Jackie Brown? Only time will tell. But, as Sean_C said, I think that score currently reflects the expectations audiences had for the film after hits like Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, and it turned out to be quite different from both of those. It’s all reminiscent of the response he got in 1997, for a movie which many people now consider to be among his very best and most mature work.
According to the BAFTA best casting nod he is haha.
1917 was late, but it’s also not the type of film to get a SAG Ensemble nod. I think it crested at the right time for box office and Oscar noms. Does it have enough time for the BP win? That’s the big question.
I hope so, but as long as 1917 gets BD I’m happy
Knives Out says hello.
She’ll have more lines at SAG than in the entire 3.5 hour film.
It is important for you to know that we love you. We want the best for you. We are arranging for you the finest professional help that money can buy. However, you should know that the doctor we have selected uses an acronym (MD) after his name to denote his field and level of expertise. Everything will be okay, I promise.
I think officially they’re both cast.
The shape of water vs. 3BB was a literal coin toss.
Last four years in a row have been tough for best picture prediction.
or Black Panther
Something about OUATIH still intrigues me. Why a movie from an industry veteran like Tarantino be the BP frontrunner but not expected to win Director? He’s no actor turned director like Ben Affleck, no trashy comedy director making a baitty drama like Peter Farrely, and no newcomer or breakout directors like Barry Jenkins, Tom McCarthy and Steve McQueen. He’s a two time Director nominee and two time Screenplay winner with three BP nominees before OUATIH.
You can say he can still win DGA, and I agree so. But a strong frontrunner status for a veteran like him is supposed to start with the first televised awards, it’s expected to sweep the directing awards.
And there’s also the Editing snub. Birdman prevailed but it was an one shot gimmick. Before Birdman, there were Ordinary People and Annie Hall, acting/writing driven movies with no technical nominations unlike OUATIH, which have five. Last year, few people were predicting Green Book to be nominated in Editing after practically zero precursors. But it surprisingly did and won BP over the not Editing nominee Roma. So this is a correlation that year after year seems to be right. We definitely shouldn’t underestimate it.
Roma had the twin drawbacks of being a foreign language film and a Netflix film, and it’s unclear which drawback was worse. This year, those drawbacks (if they are drawbacks any longer) belong to two different films: Parasite and The Irishman. I expect one of them to win.
I would imagine that some portion of the general audience was expecting more action than the film had.
It’s divisive. I think it’s still the favourite, but it is vulnerable on a preferential ballot imo.
I’m not a Tarantino fan but the other 2 I’ve sat through, Pulp Fiction & Django, were much better than Hollywood
Wasn’t divisive with my group including two that have pulp fiction as their all time favourite film, we all hated it
How do you all account for the fact that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has the lowest Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes out of all of QT’s films including Death Proof and Hateful Eight?
Hollywood – 70
Hateful Eight – 76
Django – 91
Basterds – 88
Death Proof – 72
Kill Bill 2 – 89
Kill Bill – 81
Jackie Brown – 85
Pulp Fiction – 96
Reservoir Dogs – 94
I mean, Sasha and some others think it’s QT’s best film to date, and yet she says herself there’s something to be said for how well the general audience likes a film and it’s chances of winning Best Picture.
Also, anyone who likes their own posts loses all credibility in my mind. It’s sad, really.
Touche. I keep forgetting about it even though that definitely featured one of the best ensembles of 2019, as well.
To write a long title like ONCE UPON A TIME … IN HOLLYWOOD every single time it comes up in the daily Oscar discussion, would be a drag. So with all due respect, if you know what OUATIH refers to, then respect our right to use that acronym. Thanks.
BP was nominated for Stunt. I know not the same…
Sasha, were you demoted from “experts” at Gold Derby? You are about as expert as it gets…
There’s a faction that just doesn’t like him and never has. Doesn’t like him personally, doesn’t like his work. As iconic as he is, he’s never been universally respected like Spielberg, Scorsese, et al.
tbh idc wtf u call them
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8cb4d7bf4984f2b34f4a331e99994783a055148a8ac53a4522945e29dcb42913.jpg
No psychotic ‘Little Women’ bashing? You disappoint me, Sasha. I’ll expect better tomorrow.
Yep, if OUATIH sweeps this weekend, I’ll predict it to win Best Picture no matter what. But maybe the Editing snub is a sign this sweep won’t happen. I’m predicting it to win both PGA and SAG, but I have the feeling I’m as wrong as every year.
We can predict it, but not safely, not without the WGA guiding us. Being ineligible of course doesn’t count as a loss when predicting (it counts more as a win, I agree with you here) but it gives us much less clarity than a clear winner in a normal race.
You’re giving me hope, since that guy is the opposite of my demographic.
It would be GREAT for Parasite to win. Just fab.
Yeah and Irishman has definitely lost some steam in recent months, and Bombshell is not a top awards contender at all, especially after missing Best Picture at the Oscars.
True. However, if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins Original Screenplay everywhere except for the place where it was ineligible, then you can safely bet on Tarantino to win at the Oscars. Or if WGA goes with someone who wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars like last year when Bo Burnham won Original Screenplay at WGA for Eighth Grade.
Paquin for obvious reasons? I actually don’t know what you are referring to as the obvious reasons? What are you referring to?
You are right. But I don’t think they ever clearly explained what the category is meant to be. In general, it just means a movie where there’s a sizable group of actors acting very well across the board.
How funny. I just asked a SAG voter friend and he told me that he voted for Parasite. He’s a rather conservative white guy whose taste in movies are quite middle of the road. He thought Hollywood was “boring” though he voted for Pitt.
I do think Parasite can definitely win SAG ensemble since all of its fans don’t have anywhere to vote but in this category. Hollywood’s fans have a spot in Actor and S. Actor. At SAG, Parasite can be this year’s Slumdog Millionaire and ROTK (these movies won Ensemble while having no other nominations).
Theron (especially if she loses her category); Paquin (for obvious reasons); ScarJo (especially if she loses her categories); Robbie/DiCaprio (especially if they lose their categories); Song.
This SAG voter voted for Parasite because the nominating committee did not see fit to nominate any individuals in its cast of unknowns. And I would actually rank the nominees as follows:
Parasite
The Irishman
Bombshell
Jojo Rabbit
OUaTiH
My own preferences rarely align with the majority of voters, but I’m still predicting Parasite to win. (Though something tells me I may be disappointed as usual. In which case, it’ll be my fifth choice.)
And it rhymes. 😉
All of the QT Best Picture nominees before this year were in the high 80s and above, the one SAG cast winner among them as well.
Nah… It was up in the air many times in the past few years. Most notably in the Spotlight/The Big Short/Revenant season.
Okay, this is wishful thinking, but your shock prediction doesn’t seem unlikely to me because 1917 is just now breaking wide, and, while AMPAS members can screen it at home, their kids, other relatives and friends are seeing it on big screens and coming home and saying, Wow! Not all of 1917‘s Audience reviews in RT are positive, but the majority of them are, and many of those are rapt raves. This audience rush is coming too late to have gotten MacKay in at AMPAS for Best Actor (not that I can figure who of the 5 nominated Best Actors he might have replaced). But I don’t think 1917‘s new-kid-on-the-block status in wide release is too late for the movie or Mendez to prevail. Plus, Deakins and its sound nominations look solid.
I’m guessing that a lot of AMPAS voters’ opinions on other Picture and Director nominees are fairly set by now, but 1917 is fresher, and those it impresses are mightily impressed. I’m wondering if the late roll-out is possibly playing a more positive role because the movie is so visually striking.
Final thought: No, I do not compare 1917 to Lawrence of Arabia (which had a wider historical scope), or MacKay to O’Toole (who wasn’t just skillful but also staggeringly gorgeous). But there’s a kind of jumbo aura to 1917‘s lingering effects that I think could win Mendez and the movie Oscars. It sure doesn’t look like anything else in the race. And Lawrence won both Picture and Director.
In the purest sense of the word ensemble it would be the cast that acts off one another. Films like The Full Monty and Gosford Park where an array of actors have scenes together. The SAG award, interpreted as a Best Picture prize has lost some of that original intended spirit. It’s great when a movie like Hidden Figures which is a genuine ensemble of actors. No real lead, lots of supporting players contributing to the narrative and aplenty with actory sequences.
I’ve predicted Once Upon A Time in Hollywood here, but The Irishman fits the tag ensemble much more faithfully but it’s not about that if it ever was.
I would imagine that some portion of the general audience was expecting more action than the film had.
I think you have a point regarding SAG. I just can’t see an ‘international’ film winning Best Picture. I remember someone arguing with me here last year (I can’t remember who). They were adamant that Roma would break the stat of no foreign film winning Best Picture.
I’m predicting Parasite to win both SAG Ensemble and Best Picture at the Oscars. I was stunned to see how much widespread support this film has on Twitter. It’s already impressive enough that a foreign language film received an Ensemble nomination from SAG-AFTRA, the most populous guild.
Also, let’s remember that SAG voted very early in December, when the critical/box office reception of both Bombshell and Little Women was unclear. It seemed they only had room for one female-led film, and they picked the wrong one. So I won’t predict that to win.
Went.
Parasite could be the spoiler to win the Oscar. It’s not a divisive film and with the preferential balloting, it will likely rank higher than lower. It could be this year’s Spotlight, Moonlight.
yes Brett, I thought OUTIH was stupendously bloated, self-indulgent, and over-rated…. It’s okay to have an opinion.
Not being eligible doesn’t make it harder to win, but it does make it harder to predict.
Birdman wasn’t eligible either and that still won Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars.
I think we may be collectively underestimating the guild love Jojo Rabbit received : SAG, PGA, DGA, WGA, ADG, CDG, Eddie.
And that on top of picture, writing, acting and editing nominations from the Academy.
Long story short, I think it may win something big before all is said and done and considering SAG voters tend to go for heartfelt crowdpleasers in Ensemble, a Jojo win wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
Charlize Theron, Robert DeNiro, Taika Waititi, Brad Pitt and Song Kang-ho
OUATIH is definitely winning SAG Ensemble. But that won’t be enough to win BP. It has to win PGA one day before. I really doubt the PGA winner won’t match with the Oscar this year.
I’m also predicting it but I’m really not confident one way or the other! I think there are so many different ways this could go. I’m tempted to predict something else just so that I’m not going with the same thing as everyone else but I can’t even decide what to go with so I’m just sticking with it. The editing snub is interesting because, yes it is a really reliable stat, which makes me worried but if one was to ask me “what is the weakest element of OUATIH” I would say its editing so the snub makes sense, maybe it is just editors going for the more interesting editing… This is probably not a popular opinion around here but I love the Jojo nomination because that comedic editing is actually really impressive.
Jojo Rabbit I think has the least chance of winning Best Cast at SAG. In fact, had Little Women been widely screened, that would’ve gotten in instead. The only cast I could see upsetting Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is Parasite.
Leo also had a dual Lead nomination situation like Winslet 2 years later. He would have been nominated for The Departed if not for Blood Diamond.
Alicia Vikander also won Supporting as a lead. Ironically, her main competition was also a lead performance (Rooney Mara).
Ditto The Departed and the nom for Mark Wahlberg (and close miss for Jack Nicholson)
Forgot was John Wick nominated for stunt ensemble. That bad ass fight sequence with the dogs couldn’t be that easy to accomplish.
It’s more likely that Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins.
Now if there is a category that could have used 10 slots this year that’s SAG Ensemble because while the ensemble work of the five nominated films are all worthy even when the film isn’t (Bombshell), there were at least 6 more that would have been just as deserving : 1917, Little Women, The Farewell, Pain & Glory, Endgame, Downton Abbey. Not all these films were as good as the Oscar BP frontrunners but the ensemble work was nonetheless outstanding in all of them.
Side note : I think this will go to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood although I could see a Jojo Rabbit upset.
so what you are saying is that Dern path is clear to take the Oscar for the snubee wins the SAG. That’s really all that matters, how it impacts the frontrunner. It helps her.
I can actually see JLo pulling off an upset win here. Voting closes tomorrow AND the SAG body is like a million actors, the vast majority not in the Academy. Just the nomination proves a huge difference between the snobbery of the Academy vs SAGs willingness to reward risky performances. Let’s be honest – none of the Oscar Acting nominees are groundbreaking, risky performances. I can totally SAG pulling a fast one and giving JLo the win for a truly fantastic performance. JUSTICE FOR JLO (and Awkwafina)
No Country For Old Men won Best Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem, who let’s be honest, was really a leading character. Just putting that out there 🙂
Currently thinking:
SAG – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
PGA – 1917
DGA – 1917
WGA – Parasite and Little Women
BAFTA BP and BD – 1917
And my shock prediction (that I don’t think will reallllly happen, but):
Best Picture and Director at the Oscars: 1917
I think 1917 premiered too late for SAG. It had its premiere the weekend before Thanksgiving.
Best ensemble this year is Joaquin Phoenix.
I’d love to see Parasite winning Best Ensemble!
I’ve been trying to write a post about the different scenarios of the weekend, but honestly I just couldn’t write anything meaningful. We still won’t know anything. Except if one film wins both, then we’ll know at least something. Without the WGA, we just can’t be sure.
I’ve been trying to write a post about the different scenarios of the weekend, but honestly I just couldn’t write anything meaningful. We still won’t know anything. Except if one film wins both, then we’ll know at least something. Without the WGA, we just can’t be sure.
Yeah but this time last year Roma was ‘destined’ for gold.
roma don’t hold a candle to parasite though
PGA does feel important this year but I honestly don’t know who wins PGA – it could be Once, it could be Parasite, it could even be Joker or Irishman or 1917. I wouldn’t even put it past them to pick Little Women or Jojo (though they are both really unlikely and I wouldn’t predict them). Though if Once gets PGA and SAG this weekend no matter what happens after that I’ll predict Once for picture (it could easily happen as a director picture split with something else winning DGA and director Oscar).
Oh and Parasite fits the term ensemble too but I’m not predicting it either sadly.
I agree. I think it’s between Hollywood and Parasite for Ensemble. Jojo doesn’t have the box office nor the critical consensus to go all the way to a win.
At the end, you say if SAG and PGA align, it’s over. But what if PGA goes for 1917 and SAG for OUATIH or any film for that matter? Then what? Stick to PGA which votes the same as the oscars, despite SAG Saying no to 1917 (which makes no sense why it wasn’t nominated).
Is this the first time that Best Picture has been genuinely up in the air? It always feels like it is, and then it turns out there was a clear path all along.
But BAFTA and Oscar rarely match these days?
A Star is Born along with BlacKKKlansman was the guild leader, and that sadly did not result in any wins for it. And the Directing snub at the Oscars is a big deal. Now because of that, it has to win PGA on Saturday in order to have any realistic shot. Because that’s what Driving Miss Daisy, Argo, and Green Book had despite being snubbed for Directing at the Oscars.
And of course let’s not forget that Toronto Audience Prize way back…
As always, WGA shows the way. But Hollywood being ineligible messes up everything.
I hope you’re right about 1917 but I still think Once is favourite for PGA & Oscar BP
I’m sensing a Once sweep of SAG and PGA. I would love Parasite to win Ensemble
true, pga is huge this year
Theron, because she is the lead.
De Niro, because he is the lead and it’s his passion project.
Johansson, because she is campaigning for the Oscar.
Di Caprio, because Pitt has already spoken for S. Actor.
Song, because he plays the character that would speak in such a situation, and also he won the LAFCA.
theron, deniro, waititi, pitt, father
I don’t think 1917 is winning BAFTA so easily, even if it wins PGA. But yes, with PGA, it’s most probably winning the Oscar.
Here’s a random question I’m posing to everyone here. Whoever wins Best Cast at SAG this Sunday, usually it’s just one person that speaks for the entire cast. Like Frances McDormand a couple years ago spoke on behalf of the entire cast of Three Billboards when that won SAG’s Best Cast award.
Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite. Which actor from each film should speak on the cast’s behalf if they win?
Agreed!
I love it!
Well the PGA winner will be revealed on Saturday, and that will reveal who truly can benefit from the preferential ballot.
I’d feel fairly confident in that actually. Still don’t quite think OUATIH & Irishman have it in them.
Forgot was John Wick nominated for stunt ensemble. That bad ass fight sequence with the dogs couldn’t be that easy to accomplish.
Yep, Once is my prediction with Jojo in 2nd.
They’re gonna spread the love. Irishman gets ensemble, Judy gets lead actress, Joker gets lead actor, Marriage gets supporting actress, Hollywood gets supporting actor. And cause they don’t know any better, Joker gets stunts.
That would not be shocking at all.
If I was ranking these:
1. Parasite
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Bombshell
I’m pessimistically anticipating Once Upon A Time to win everything. Although, if Irishman wins SAG, and Once wins PGA, maybe we could see the emergence of dark horse Parasite winning BP on Oscar’s preferential ballot. I won’t be holding my breath, though.
I’d say Marriage Story is a definitive 2-hander + ensemble. It still has no chance in hell of winning more than Supporting Actress.