The State of the Race — BAFTA, PGA, DGA All in One Day

This awards season has been relentless. It’s sort of like trying to get to shore, but another wave keeps hitting you in the face and knocking you back down. The week started with the Writers Guild nominations on the heels of the Golden Globe wins. Add to that BAFTA, PGA, and DGA nominations, all announcing in less than 12 hours, and it’s time to take a deep, deep breath.

But just to point out how the shortened season impacts some films worse than others: since 1917 just won the Globe for Best Picture and Best Director, that would have most likely kicked its esteem up a bit so that it came on slightly stronger with BAFTA. While people believe that it just comes down to the movies themselves, it only partly does. Perception and momentum also play into it. A loss usually means a slight dip in perception, even if the movie itself never changes. It’s an ongoing mystery of the human experience and film awards.

What do we know so far in the Best Picture race? The same movies are still going strong:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Globes winner/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble nom/BAFTA, ineligible for WGA)
Parasite (PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA)
The Irishman (PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA)
Jojo Rabbit (PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble)
1917 (Globes winner/PGA/DGA/WGA/BAFTA)
Joker (PGA/WGA/BAFTA)
Marriage Story (PGA/WGA)
Little Women (PGA/WGA)
Knives Out (PGA/WGA)
Ford v Ferrari (PGA)
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)

As for Best Director, we know that the fifth directing slot was thought to belong to Todd Phillips for Joker. Did we know that before? I am not sure, but either way, Taika Waititi has taken the fifth slot at the DGA. We know that to WIN Best Picture, you really need the DGA nom more than you do an Oscar nomination for directing (Argo, Green Book both had DGA noms but not Oscar noms).

We don’t know whether or not the DGA noms will closely match the Oscar noms. We assume Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese, Sam Mendes, and Bong Joon Ho are locked. Pretty close to locked. That fifth slot, though — that’s a doozy. Is it Todd Phillips? Is it Taika Waititi? Is it someone else, like Greta Gerwig for Little Women? Or the Safdie brothers? Rian Johnson for Knives Out? Heck, James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari, Pedro Almodovar for Pain and Glory, or Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story? That will be the big one right there — who gets that fifth spot in Best Director? Will DGA and Oscar match 5/5 for the first time in a decade?

Let’s just quickly go through what we know about the race in the era of the preferential ballot. What are the rules we sort of go by, more or less?

Stats that have been busted of late:

— Needing a SAG ensemble nom to win Best Picture. Both Shape of Water and Green Book won without one.
— Coming out of Telluride or Venice or earlier. Green Book broke that stat by being a Toronto release.
— Needing a Best Director Oscar nom. Argo and Green Book have busted that one.

But what are the necessary prerequisites we still look for?

Recently, Best Picture winners helmed by writer-directors tend to win either Picture + Director or Picture + Screenplay, not both — with the sole exception of Birdman.

2009: The Hurt Locker — Picture + Director + Screenplay (but different writer/director)
2010: The King’s Speech — Picture + Director + Screenplay (but different writer/director)
2011: The Artist — Picture + Director
2012: Argo — Picture + Screenplay (but different writer/director)
2013: 12 Years a Slave — Picture + Screenplay (Gravity won Director)
2014: Birdman — Picture + Director + Screenplay (also PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble)
2015: Spotlight — Picture + Screenplay (The Revenant won Director)
2016: Moonlight — Picture + Screenplay (La La Land won Director)
2017: The Shape of Water — Picture + Director (Get Out won Screenplay)
2018: Green Book — Picture + Screenplay (Roma won Director)

In general, if a film wins Picture + Director + Screenplay, different people win in Director and Screenplay; a writer-director wins only one of Director or Screenplay — not both. Nobody has needed a wheel barrow to take home all their Oscars since the Coen brothers together grabbed six for No Country.

So, if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a juggernaut — it’s Birdman, let’s say — it would win PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble, then win Picture + Director + Screenplay. But since Tarantino is the ONLY writer on the film as well as its director, he would be making Oscar history if he wins both Director and Original Screenplay. I actually don’t think it’s ever happened that a sole writer-director has won both Original Screenplay and Best Picture. Usually, there is at least one co-writer. The Coen brothers co-wrote No Country for Old Men, but that was based on a Cormac McCarthy novel. Jim Brooks won for Terms of Endearment, but that was based on a Larry McMurtry novel.

That tells me that it’s likely Tarantino won’t win both. BUT he could. Stats were made to be broken. But it’s MORE likely that, even with PGA/DGA/SAG, Once could win Picture + Director but something else wins Original Screenplay, like Parasite. Or the opposite — Once wins Picture + Screenplay and Parasite wins Best Director. OR 1917 could win Picture + Director, with Once winning Original Screenplay.

Which films are likely to hit all markers at Oscar? Writing, directing, acting, and crafts?

Let’s use the PGA nominees to assemble our list:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
The Irishman (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
1917 (Picture/Director/Acting/Crafts/maybe Screenplay)
Jojo Rabbit (Picture/Screenplay/acting/Crafts/maybe Directing)
Joker (Picture/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts/maybe Directing)
Parasite (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Crafts/maybe Acting)
Marriage Story (Picture/Screenplay/Acting/maybe Crafts)
Ford v Ferrari (Picture/Crafts/maybe Acting)
Little Women (Picture/Screenplay/Crafts/maybe Acting)
Knives Out (Picture/Crafts/maybe Screenplay)

What else could be bumped up?

Bombshell (Picture/Crafts/Acting)
Rocketman (Picture/Crafts/Acting)

Ideally, your Best Picture winner has all of these elements, but by far acting matters the most, along with writing, in the era of the preferential ballot:

The Hurt Locker (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
The King’s Speech (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
The Artist (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
Argo (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
12 Years a Slave (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
Birdman (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
Spotlight (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
Moonlight (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
The Shape of Water (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)
Green Book (Picture/Director/Screenplay/Acting/Crafts)

We won’t really be able to figure out our Best Picture winner until we hear the final verdict from the PGA, until we know if this is a split year or not.

Here are the films I think got the biggest boosts in the flurry of announcements over the past few days:

1917
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
The Lighthouse — cinematography
Booksmart — screenplay
Taron Egerton — actor

Oscar ballots are due today. We will soon see where all of these movies land.