Emmy Tracker: What Eleventh Hour Contenders Are Impacting The Emmy Conversation?

A couple of days into June the official Emmy calendar of eligibility is over (apart from any possible hanging episodes) and we’re here to premiere our first Emmy Tracker update with all of the major contenders.

Interestingly enough, the biggest updates have come in the comedy and limited series categories with shows like Ramy and Defending Jacob while we haven’t seen much change in the drama categories at all. The first half of the year was oversaturated with compelling drama contenders and since then nothing new has risen. Is there a chance that we are underestimating something?

And where do we go from here? Voting on the nominations was pushed back later into July which leaves even more time for the dust to settle. It also gives voters more time to actually watch all of these last-minute entries. In the past we’ve seen voters completely skip over some of the latest premieres or over-compensate in nominations only to realize later they actually didn’t like the season (House of Cards, Westworld).

Ramy

Dropping all ten episodes of the second seasons last Friday, Ramy became the last major contender to enter the Emmy conversation before the eligibility deadline. The first season of the groundbreaking auteur-comedy about a Muslim-American family didn’t receive any Emmy nominations but since then Ramy Youssef himself won the Golden Globe bringing more attention and acclaim to the underrated Hulu show.

The second season was met with strong critical acclaim especially for Youssef’s performance and writing as a millennial man trying to balance Western life and his relationship to Islam. On top of all that the second season’s secret weapon was the addition of two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali as Ramy’s new Sheikh.

Golden Globe wins don’t always translate to Emmy gold but in recent years we’ve seen Emmy voters make more and more bold choices especially when it comes to these auteur comedians. That’s why the second season of Ramy immediately jumped to sixth place in our tracker while Youssef himself safely landed in fourth behind three iconic actors (David, Danson, Levy). Right now Mahershala Ali is even in fifth place in our supporting actor predictions. He gives a very reserved performance, much more similar to his acting style in Moonlight than in Green Book, and it’s the kind that might not seem flashy enough for a comedy category. But this is Mahershala Ali we are talking about, one of the most exciting actors currently in the industry and one that voters have already nominated twice.

Defending Jacob

Apple TV+ premiered last fall with The Morning Show and as the year has progressed the new streaming service hasn’t debuted any other show that seems like an obvious Emmy contender. The limited series from writer Mark Bomback and Oscar-nominated director Morten Tyldum focuses on two parents (Michelle Dockery & Chris Evans) as they deal with the accusation that their teenage son might be a murderer. I don’t think many thought it would be a major Emmy contender at first but over the years voters have really gravitated to true crime series especially in the limited series categories.

Audiences have also responded strongly to the show bringing in a lot of audience engagement to our site’s interviews and social media interaction. Chris Evans is also a bona fide movie star that has been making really interesting career choices since hanging up the Captain America suit. Right now the ADTV team believes that the show’s best shot at a nomination lies in Chris Evans with him currently in the seventh position but it will be interesting to see what happens to the show’s momentum as the weeks go on.

Run

Two months ago Run was one of the most anticipated premieres of the spring. On paper it seemed like the perfect Emmy contender; an interesting premise, the creative team behind Fleabag, and two-time Emmy winner Merritt Wever. Because of that it debuted pretty high on our Emmy Tracker with the series and its two stars all in the sixth position.

Since then a lot of things have changed. What began as an interesting premise and a compelling hodge-podge of genres turned into a tedious first season that audiences complained was afraid of committing to the initial premise. With the finale last weekend the ADTV team has reevaluated its chances and we’re not that convinced that it is going to be in the Emmy conversation at all. The series has dropped down to the eleventh position while Gleeson dropped to eighth in a wide open field. Even a perceived favorite like Wever has fallen to seventh.

In its place an unexpected HBO comedy has risen. As the fourth season of Insecure has progressed it has become one of the most talked about shows of the spring and has earned some of its best reviews to date. It’s never been a huge Emmy contender and Issa Rae has only been nominated once for the second season. Still it is one of the few comedies that are exciting audiences and that says a lot. Both the series and Issa Rae herself have risen in the rankings and are on the verge of a nomination but with a wide-open field they could be stronger than any of us are anticipating.

Barkskins

As it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic was going to seriously alter the television landscape for months or years to come networks began to rearrange their schedules. Nat Geo, a network that has surprise time and time again in the limited series categories, suddenly postponed the third season of Genius and moved Barkskins into its coveted Memorial Day Weekend slot.

The new limited series, based off of the best-selling Annie Proulx novel, takes place in 17^th century Quebec as British and French settlers began interacting with the First Nations People. The new series hasn’t dominated the pop culture conversation in a way that makes it a contender in the limited series race, however it features some of the most stunning technical and craft achievements of the year and it shouldn’t be counted out in the creative arts categories.

Other Releases

The past couple of weeks have seen a couple other high-profile premieres as well. Possibly the biggest pop culture event of May was the complicated debut of HBO Max that ultimately led to plenty of excitement for a new streaming service to explore. If any of its original content is able to make it into the Emmy conversation it will be their debut comedy Love Life. Right now the ADTV team doesn’t have the new romantic comedy ranked well in our Emmy Tracker but good reviews for Anna Kendrick, especially from our own Clarence Moye, might bring the Oscar nominee into the conversation.

We also updated the lead and supporting actor in a drama series categories as we’ve received confirmation on category submissions. Steve Carrell is officially competing as a lead actor for The Morning Show and the ADTV team is all over the place in our predictions with him debuting in eighth place. We also found out that HBO is officially submitting Jeffrey Wright of Westworld as a supporting actor after flip-flopping over the three seasons. So far the Emmy winning actor was nominated as a supporting actor in the first season and as a lead actor in the second but now they are re-submitting him as a supporting player. The supporting actor race is wide-open and well-respected Golden Globe, Emmy, and Tony winner could easily be nominated but currently the ADTV team ranked him in eighth place.

With Dead to Me becoming one of the most watched shows of the spring we decided to reevaluate the Emmy chances of James Marsden. The black comedy premiered almost a month ago and since then the second season has consistently been in Netflix’s top programs of the day. We already are predicting the Netflix show to be nominated for comedy series and for both of its lead actresses so a coattail nomination for someone as likable as James Marsden isn’t out of the question. Marsden came back to play the polar opposite twin brother of his first season’s character. He’s a well-liked performer that hasn’t really been nominated for any major award before and this could be the year that changes that.

One of the biggest questions of the 2020 Emmy race has been just what will voters do with the Mrs. America ensemble. I don’t think they’ve ever been tasked with having so many viable contenders in one category and now the supporting actress race is a bloodbath. Further complicating that conversation, two weeks ago FX premiered the series’ penultimate episode “Houston” a powerhouse episode for Sarah Paulson – one that helped her jump up in the Emmy tracker all the way into the fifth position alongside Margo Martindale.

Readers, what major Emmy contenders are you watching as we head into summer? Are there any shows you think will make more of an impact than any of us are anticipating?