Predictions Friday: Fincher’s Mank is Finally Seen and It’s a Beauty

Netflix has been rolling out Mank to critics and bloggers before the review embargo lifts in a few days and audiences finally get to see it on November 13. Because the Oscar race is such a well-oiled machine, what you got from film and Oscar twitter was dozens of snap takes guessing at its Best Picture chances and/or trying to pin down how to position it in the Oscar race. I think this kind of insta-punditry works better for some films than for others. In fact, you could imagine Gary Oldman’s Mank toasting the whole tawdry affair and taking a sardonic bow. None of us who’ve seen it in preview are allowed to write an actual review of this exceptional film but I suppose I can fold my own general impressions into a short take on the Oscars as the most pivotal political election of our lifetime bears down upon us.

Of course, based solely on its impeccable craftsmanship across the board, there’s widespread agreement that Mank is an immediate frontrunner in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Score, Editing, Costumes, Production Design, Sound, and maybe even Visual Effects (as with every Fincher film, we expect the effects showreel to be astonishing.)

I can’t imagine Oscar voters won’t go over the moon for Mank as many of us already are. No one makes movies like this anymore and no one makes them this good. No doubt to fully appreciate the depth and significance of the story, its best to know as much as possible about the world of Orson Welles, Citizen Kane, and understand all that it inspired in the ensuing years. It helps to know the backstory of Herman Mankiewicz and William Randolph Hearst. It probably also helps to know the lore of the behind the scenes intrigue. And the more you know the better you will appreciate it. All the meaningful little things are there onscreen, but Mank is so rich with detail, much of it is necessarily left unexplained. No other living filmmaker pays as much attention to filling the frame with densely layered compositions and fluid intricacy than David Fincher. So, as one would expect, many of the tweet reactions last night were celebrating the craft aspects.

Fincher never dumbs anything down in any way, and he isn’t interested in making a film that necessarily deliver the comfy emotional catharsis so many Oscar Best Picture winners serve audiences. But it is always important to remember why the Oscar exist at all. They exist to reward art. True art does not exist to be easy to grasp at first glance, and true artists have far more on their minds than winning Oscars.

Because predicting a winner on Halloween weekend for a ceremony that will be held the last week of April is impossible, all we can do right now is add Mank to all the categories where it deserves recognition, as begin to fill out our likely predictions list that is slowly forming.

I will just say that overall we do not know what this years over-arching themes will be because we don’t yet know how the results of presidential election will alter the cultural landscape. I suspect that a week from now, for better or worse, we’ll know a lot more about what to expect by April of next year. But let’s track it just for some pointless fun, to distract us from our anxiety.

Best Picture Frontrunners
Mank
Nomadland
The Father
Minari
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Outpost
On the Rocks
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Contenders:
Hillbilly Elegy
Tenet
Promising Young Woman
Da 5 Bloods

Unseen:
News of the World
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor Frontrunners
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Contenders
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Steven Yeun, Minari
Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Unseen:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon, C’Mon

Best Actress Frontrunners
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Contenders:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes

Unseen:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Meryl Streep, The Prom

Best Director Frontrunners:
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Florian Zeller, The Father
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Contenders:
Aaron Sorkin, The Trail of the Chicago 7
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Spike Lee, Da Five Bloods
Christopher Nolan, Tenet

Not seen:
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Daniels, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
George C. Woolf, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

That’s it for now, my friends. Watch for another column on how the election and the Oscars might intersect, coming soon.