Predictions Friday – Beware the Group Think

There have been enough times now when Golden Globe and Oscar voters have surprised pundits by choosing films way outside the groupthink circle, so we should always consider the possibility It’s nearly impossible to break free from because humans, by nature, don’t want to take risks and look ridiculous. But groupthink limits choices pretty quickly and leads to what many see as a depressing, suffocating ritual.

First, we have to remember what the Oscars are and what they aren’t.

— The Oscars aren’t pieces on a chess board, though we in the business of predicting them sometimes behave as though they are. We think, well, they’ll give this person Director and this person Picture and then that person can have Screenplay. We know from experience it doesn’t quite work out that way.

— The Oscars are supposed to be about celebrating the highest achievements in film. That means different things to different people but the bottom line is that, ideally, they are films and filmmakers that stand apart from the rest of the offerings in a given year. Either they moved the needle in culture, or they made a lot of money, or they represent milestones, or they were highly acclaimed, or all of the above.

— The Oscars aren’t meant to be symbols that right the wrongs of society. They aren’t meant to be “virtue signals” to make Academy members look good, though it often seems that is what they are. If that is true every year it is especially true this year, with the new inclusion standards hovering overhead. No doubt there are members who are annoyed by it and thus they will likely want to prove themselves inclusive regardless. That might mean this will be a record year in terms of awarding women and non-white actors and filmmakers. It’s important to remember, though, that this isn’t the only thing to consider when second guessing how the Oscar voters will vote. There will still be a contingent of voters left that holds onto the idea that great art is great art is great art, regardless of who made it or who stars in it.

— The Oscars at their best are meant to embrace diversity, not just in terms of non-white nominees, but in terms of audiences everywhere. Movies are not just made for the progressive left. They are supposed to be an industry that speaks to the entire country, and now, the entire world. While storytelling is always the anchor to any good film, the smaller and more insular the Oscars get, the more irrelevant they become. They’re already most of the way to this point but it’s always important to try to step back and broaden one’s perspective. This year there just aren’t enough movies to make this argument – we’re basically dealing with only a handful of films – but even still, within those parameters, can we not broaden our scope even a little bit?

— The Oscars aren’t meant to do as pundits demand. We sometimes inflate our own importance and pretend like we’re the ones in charge of everything. The best we can do is present possibilities to voters who then make their own decisions. Since almost all pundits are now advocating rather than predicting, it’s more important than ever to have a broader idea of what the Oscars might mean.

So with that in mind, I took a trip over to Gold Derby (I am not participating in Gold Derby this year, FYI, for reasons I will keep quiet about for now) to see where they are headed in terms of their predictions. But in fact, I already knew what I would find. There are a few narratives taking shape and the pundits reflect that.

The Narrative

By almost every measure, Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland is top of the list for Best Picture and Best Director. Why I think this narrative has momentum is mainly due to the critics’ love for Zhao, but also spring-boarding off last year’s fury over the lack of women directors, which led, in part, to the inclusion standards about to be introduced by the Academy. When you think about how only one woman has ever won Best Director and Best Picture, and when you factor in the historic election of Kamala Harris as the first female Vice President, you can see how the momentum is with Zhao.

Though it’s worth mentioning that the rise of Nomadland is at least partly driven by the honorable and appealing narrative of a woman – and woman of color especially – winning Best Director.  I expect the momentum will grow for the film and for her, with a caveat being that there is still the SAG ensemble and Producers Guild to contend with. It seems like a pretty good bet for the producers, but when you are dealing with 160,000 voters in SAG/AFTRA — most of them living outside Hollywood, as opposed to 7000 members of the PGA, we can’t yet be sure how they will vote.

Still, if the headlines and Twitter help drive the race, these will be the juicy headlines the industry will want, rather than the opposite – which would be all negative, all critical.  What isn’t yet known is whether it will be Nomadland, and not another film directed by a woman, to take the lead. If you go by what the pundits are predicting, the biggest competition will be One Night in Miami, directed by the beloved Oscar winner Regina King.

It’s also worth mentioning, since we’re on the subject of inclusion, making history, and driving headlines – to date, no black filmmaker has yet won Best Director. While 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight both won Best Picture, their directors — Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins — did not win.

In addition to Zhao’s role as writer/director, several other women are coming into the race as hyphenate nominees — as the authors of original screenplays they also directed: Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks, Emerald Fennel’s Promising Young Woman, Eliza Hittman’s Never Rarely Sometimes Always, and Kitty Green’s The Assistant. Whether they will land in any of the major categories — Picture, Director or Screenplay — remains up in the air.

The “buzz” is with Zhao and King at the moment.

The Actors

When we think about Best Picture and the Oscar race we generally think about actors and directors. Which films will the directors like for the DGA or Oscar Best Director, and which films will the actors like?

I imagine the following films might be strong for SAG ensemble:

The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Maybes:
Hillbilly Elegy
Minari
Da 5 Bloods

Not yet known:
News of the World
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Prom

What we know about the actors is that there is a good chance that the frontrunners in the category might also make it into the Best Picture race. So we’ll keep that in mind.

The Directors

The last holdouts, the true elite, and those with the absolute highest standards in the Oscars remain the directors. You can pretty much figure actors will go along with anything. Producers are only slightly more discerning, but directors remain a frustration for those looking to change up the Oscar game to be more inclusive. The AMPAS Directors Branch are extremely picky. Even more picky than the Directors Guild – a large body that includes 16,000 members who work in the industry as assistant directors or directors, many of them outside the realm of feature films.

Thus, this is a little bit tougher to predict.

For the DGA, I would imagine it would go something like this:
Mank
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
One Night in Miami or Minari or The United States vs. Billie Holiday

For Oscar it gets a little bit more complicated and I can only say for sure that two will get in:

Mank – David Fincher
Nomadland – Chloe Zhao

Beyond that, it’s hard to say and much will depend on films we haven’t yet seen before we can make that call.

To me, the Academy’s directing branch is harder to predict because they have so few members, something like 500 – 600.

However, given these considerations, here are my very early predictions for now.

Best Picture
Nomadland
Mank
The Father
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Minari
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
On the Rocks
The Outpost*

Waiting on: The Prom, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

*The reason I’m including The Outpost where no other pundits are is that I think, if it got enough publicity, it is the kind of “meat and potatoes” film that voters sometimes go for. What that means to me is that it will get a lot of number one votes, particularly from people who might not be down with the kids about other films on offer – very progressive, in other words. War films are popular in general with the Academy – and just because it is currently being blanked by Gold Derby does not mean it isn’t a film worthy of Oscar attention. So I’m including it. And if it gets publicity I could see Rod Lurie being in strong consideration for Best Director, along with Sound, maybe Editing.  So keep this film in mind.

Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Florian Zeller, The Father
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Alt: Rod Lurie, The Outpost; Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Maybes:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Waiting on: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Supporting Actor
Arliss Howard, Mank
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
David Strathairn, Nomadland

Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

Original Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Da 5 Bloods
Soul

Maybe: On the Rocks, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Should be: Spree, Eugene Kotlyarenko, Gene McHugh

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
News of the World
The Father
One Night in Miami
The Outpost

Editing
Nomadland
Mank
Chicago 7
The Outpost
Soul

Costumes
Mank
Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
The Prom (?)

And that, my friends, is all I have for today. The bottom line is that the two strongest films right now appear to be Nomadland and Mank. The driving narrative will be inclusivity, in all likelihood. Broaden your scope because it could be an unpredictable year. And, as always, nobody knows anything.