Predictions Friday: Here Come the Critics Awards

According to AwardsWatch, the critics awards will be coming fast and furiously in the next couple of weeks:

13th – Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (BSFC)

15th – Indiana Film Journalists Association Nominations (IFJA)

18th – Chicago Film Critics Association Nominations (CFCA)

18th – New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCC)

20th – Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (LAFCA)

21st – Chicago Film Critics Association Awards (CFCA)

28th – North Carolina Film Critics Association Nominations (NCFCA)

Mainly, we’re focused on the most influential of the bunch — which, to my mind, at least early on:

The National Board of Review
The New York Film Critics Circle

Slightly less influential but still notable:
Los Angeles
Chicago
Boston

The others are being marginalized because I am an old bitter mean woman. No, just kidding. I’m just telling it like it is. There are so many critics awards, and I’m not saying they don’t matter, because there are so many they tend to turn into a cumulative hive mind than they are awards bodies that can push names into the race.

As far as I can tell, the most influential critics groups prior to the guild awards, remain:

NBR
NYFCC
Golden Globes

Those are the big three. Critics Choice and Los Angeles are up there too but they can’t launch from a point of prestige the way the other three do and it doesn’t matter what you think about the National Board of Review or the Golden Globes – their influence remains steady.

The plot twist this year is that NBR isn’t announcing first. As you can see, all of those above will be announcing before they do. That changes things somewhat in terms of getting a broad perspective. If NBR and Golden Globes provide a wide scope of offerings where NYFCC, LAFC, etc tend more towards the narrow viewpoint of film awards, then we won’t get that broad scope take for a little while.

That means, December is mostly the time for critics. Whether that will carry through all the way through January, February and March is anyone’s guess. They will likely provide a snapshot of what the Oscars might look like if the date had not been pushed way back.

I do believe that if the Oscars were still on track to air in February this would be a pivotal week for deciding how they will go. But whenever the actual pivotal week may be, it’s still a long way off still.

I find predicting the New York Film Critics to always be hard. I do not know how they’re going to go and half the time they really do spin out with a random surprise that no one could see coming. BUT if I had to predict I would say Picture: Nomadland, Director: Zhao.

That would put the film and its director right at the top of the list – although to be fair, it’s already there.

A quick glance at Gold Derby shows me that there are other films some pundits are considering for the win, including Miss Juneteenth (Shawn Edwards), News of the World (Thelma Adams), One Night in Miami (Brian Truitt), Minari (Kevin Polowy, Trial of Chicago 7 (Michael Musto, Winston Morales, Eric Deggans), Mank (Tariq Khan, Christopher Rosen).

We will be doing a more thorough breakdown of New York for our preview mid-week. Some years the critics all line up behind one movie and some years they each offer up different choices. We do not yet know what kind of year this will be.

But before any of those announcements arrive, here is how I see it for now.

Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Promising Young Woman

Strong contenders:
On the Rocks
Let Them All Talk
Hillbilly Elegy
The Outpost
Tenet
Sound of Metal

Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Florian Zeller, The Father
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Rod Lurie, The Outpost
Christopher Nolan, Tenet

Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Strong contenders
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Steven Yeun, Minari
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods
Colin Firth, Supernova

Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Strong contenders:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Clare Dunne, Herself
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Arliss Howard, Mank
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Next tier
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Next tier
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

Original Screenplay
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola

Next tier
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always, Eliza Hittman
Ammonite, Francis Lee

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers

Cinematography
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Emma
Tenet

Editing
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
Kirk Baxter, Mank
William Goldenberg, News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
The Outpost, Michael Duthie

Production Design
Mank
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Tenet
News of the World

Sound
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Prom
Tenet

Costumes
Mank
News of the World
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

Score
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Midnight Sky
News of the World

Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7