Predictions Friday: A Year of Unparalleled Black Filmmakers and Artists

In the last gasp of the 2020/2021 Oscar year, there are four films being released, and three of them will likely enter the Oscar race strong. It is a year of not just Black directors telling Black stories but Black female directors telling Black stories. And yes, it sounds strange to categorize because we’re ideally moving to a place where it would not have to be singled out or noticed at all because it would just be how things are. I don’t know if we’re there yet, but since this was the year the Academy made the decision to force inclusion both in narrative films and behind the scenes, it’s worth pointing out the abundance of inclusive productions this year and how many of them are among the best of the year.

Da 5 Bloods – Written and Directed by Spike Lee
One Night in Miami – Written by Kemp Powers, Directed by Regina King
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Written by August Wilson, adapted by Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Directed by George C. Wolfe
Miss Juneteenth – Written and Directed by Channing Godfrey Peoples
Antebellum co-written, co-directed by Gerard Bush, Christopher Renz
The United States vs. Billie Holiday – Adapted Screenplay by Suzan-Lori Parks, Directed by Lee Daniels
Judas and the Black Messiah – Co-written by Will Berson, Co-written and Directed by Shaka King
American Skin – Written and Directed by Nate Parker
Soul – Co-directed by Pete Docter, Kemp Powers, co-written by Docter, Powers & Mike Jones

Worthy of note:
Small Axe – Written and Directed by Steve McQueen but is eligible for the Emmys, not the Oscars

The only one not directed by a Black director is Malcolm & Marie, which is written and directed by Sam Levinson. Otherwise, these are written, co-written and directed by Black filmmakers. Anyone covering the race would be remiss not to notice this wave, or new wave, that’s been happening in American film for a few years now.

Of these films, the strongest contenders for the Oscars, at least right now (I am screening Malcolm & Marie later today) are One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey, United States vs. Billie Holiday and Judas and the Black Messiah. All of these films are potentially Best Picture nominees. When trying to suss out what will get in you are looking for one strong anchor – either a beloved name or well known name or a strong performance, or even a film about a subject people can relate to.

With Judas, it’s about the death of the famous Black Panther murder Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya). That makes it timely to 2020, but also it’s strong across the board with performances, directing, production design, cinematography, etc. The same goes for United States vs. Billie Holiday. Not only does it feature a central performance which is a likely Best Actress contender, Andra Day, but it is about a beloved historical figure – someone whose songs have played a role in defining many of the lives of boomers and the generation right after. Now, the younger generations will be introduced to Billie Holiday and why she was such an important voice.

Telling the history of the Black experience in America from the voices of Black artists is a unique opportunity for those who might not know some of these stories or people. Or only know them through the perspective of White storytellers. They aren’t history lessons, they are perspective shifts. Obviously Hollywood is not ready to fully open its arms to Nate Parker for reasons that don’t need to be gone over again but regardless, his is a powerful up and coming voice in American film and his work will stand on its own in the years to come.

Figuring out how this year’s race is going to go will depend largely on which of these films resonate with voters. But I think it’s safe to say that, due to how things have gone down this year, the Academy is likely going to break many records with nominations across the board.

In terms of figuring out which films are most accessible – probably Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is going to feature prominently, not just because of the two central performances but its overall vibe is, I think, going to appeal to voters. The two strongest besides that in terms of overall story are probably Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Both of these films are personal, visceral and devastating. They both send powerful messages for today’s audiences that make them relevant to right now. And I think Regina King’s popularity among actors helps One Night in Miami, especially with actors.

This isn’t the whole story of 2020, but it’s definitely worth singling out as we head into the thick of the season.

The big question in the coming weeks is what the Golden Globes are going to do to shift the race. Either there will be surprises or it will continue to go the way we all seem to think it will go — with no one having any clue either way.

Right now it looks like if you predicted anything other than films directed by and starring white people, especially white men, you would do pretty well as a general rule. But again, we have to just think about what the best films and performances are with part of our focus on the important push for inclusivity and how that will play into the choices made.

To put it another way, the default in a white majority country and white majority Oscars is always going to be people drawn to stories about people like them, experiences they can relate to. In the past, Oscar voters tended towards only the Black stories that had good white characters in them because that made a lot of people feel better to watch them. That remains true today, in that feeling shame and guilt can only take you so far.

But there has been a significant shift in the white community, on the left at least. It’s probably going to be one of the typically controversial things to say but I’ll say it anyway (blame me, not the other members of this site, please) — for white Americans, fighting racism, or championing antiracism, has taken a prominent place in defining the meaning of their lives. This was analyzed closely at this site, how white millennials without religious upbringings are gravitating more and more towards identifying antiracism as their new religion — in the same way that religious people have found that supporting antiracist causes to be a important way to express the ideals of their religion. You can read up on it and see if I summarized it correctly.

Not to go on and on about it but just to say that the old pattern of what kinds of Black stories are universal among a majority white country or majority white Academy might be shifting ever so slightly. It used to be, as long as white people aren’t blamed the movie should do fine. Like, 12 Years a Slave had the one nice white guy. Like, Moonlight wasn’t overtly about racism. Like The Help, Driving Miss Daisy and Green Book had nice white people in them. Whereas movies like Do the Right Thing or Fruitvale Station did not.

Trump’s rise really changed all of that. Anyone who knows my general thinking on the arc of our society on the left is that, during Obama’s rise and during his administration, many felt that we had built a kind of inclusive utopia that was about everyone’s equal rights, not offending anyone or marginalizing them, etc. When Trump rose to power he was like the Devil coming to Salem. It stoked fear and episodes of mass hysteria. It changed the Oscars, it changed everything. Thus, you could have movies like BlacKkKlansman and Get Out nominated for Best Picture. That was a notable shift from the Academy’s past with regard to Black stories about race.

And finally, it is worth noting that in the wake of the insurgent attack on the US Capitol, the sentiment will likely shift further in this direction, at least in the short run. I keep getting asked that question by Oscarwatchers – how this will play into the Oscars? Well, it will intensify what was already in play with Trump. The Oscars are still a ways away. We don’t know what is yet in store for our country when Biden becomes president. We do not even know if there will be some level of Civil War. It sure feels like it.

So if you’re asking me what I honestly think about these movies – I think they will do a lot better because each of them in their own way describes a lot of what the left is going through right now.  The Oscars have not and will not be extending their arms to anyone outside of our ideological bubble at the moment or any time in the foreseeable future.

Given all of these sensitive circumstances, here is how I see it going.

Predictions

Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
One Night in Miami
Minari
Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Judas and the Black Messiah

Strong contenders:
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
On the Rocks
Let Them All Talk
Hillbilly Elegy
The Outpost
Tenet

Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Rod Lurie, The Outpost
Christopher Nolan, Tenet

Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods

Strong contenders
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Steven Yeun, Minari
Colin Firth, Supernova

Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Strong contenders:
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Clare Dunne, Herself
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Daniel Kaluuya, Jedas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Arliss Howard, Mank
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Next tier
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah

Next tier
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola

Next tier
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always, Eliza Hittman
Ammonite, Francis Lee

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers

Cinematography
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Emma
Judas and the Black Messiah

Editing
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
Kirk Baxter, Mank
William Goldenberg, News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
The Outpost, Michael Duthie

Production Design
Mank
Emma
Tenet
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
News of the World

Sound
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Prom
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Costumes
Mank
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

Score
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Midnight Sky

Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7