Predictions Friday – All Eyes on the Golden Globes

As we speak, the Hollywood Foreign Press are filling out their ballots. They have until the end of January to vote on which films they believe are the best of the year. That means, in these next two weeks publicists will have to get to them somehow, through a global pandemic and a country at war with itself, to make sure their clients are remembered.

I’ve been doing this for quite some time, over two decades now, and the only thing that has really changed is that the Golden Globes used to be mostly laughed off by celebrities, many of whom did not attend in the earlier days but as competition became more fierce they felt obligated to attend, making it quite the celebrity affair. The other way it’s changed is that the Twitter entity became aware of the Golden Globes insofar as they are part of the industry carefully watched and studied to see if any racism or sexism spills forth. Both of these charges are spurious given the Globes’ evenly balanced male to female ratio and given that voters hail from all over the world and are hardly the straight white male demo usually under fire.

But that’s how it is. When you have a hammer everything looks like a nail. Thus, last year they were taken to task because no women directors had been chosen, even though the Globes history of nominating women in the directing category is probably better than either the Oscars (for sure) or the DGA (probably). They nominated Barbra Streisand twice, Kathryn Bigelow twice, and Ava DuVernay once. Of these, only Bigelow received a single Best Director nomination at the Oscars. Both also nominated Jane Campion for The Piano and Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation.

Facts don’t really matter with the outrage machine on Twitter. They see something and they react to it in real time. Anyone who uses Twitter is guilty of this, especially me. It ignites the fight or flight response. Any time given to take a breath and think about it means you probably would not respond that way. But Twitter is built to exploit that response every second of every day. We’d all be advised not to take it too seriously, least of all the HFPA – but all of Hollywood.

Unlike the Oscars, the Globes voting demographic hasn’t changed all that much. There are about 90 members or so. They choose five nominees for Best Picture, Drama and five more for Musical/Comedy. For Director and Screenplay there are only five slots. That means keeping an eye on those categories is always a pretty good idea.

Let’s take a quick look at Best Picture, Drama in the era of the expanded ballot to see how many of them made it in:

*Not ultimately nominated for an Oscar

2009
The Hurt Locker+
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

2010
The Social Network
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech+

2011
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March*
Moneyball
War Horse

2012
Argo+
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

2013
12 Years a Slave+
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush*

2014
Boyhood
Foxcatcher*
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

2015
The Revenant
Carol*
Mad Max: Fury Road
Room
Spotlight

2016
Moonlight+
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea

2017
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water+

2018
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born

2019
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Marriage Story
The Two Popes*
*Parasite+ in Foreign Language

Musical/Comedy is a shorter list.

2009 – 0/5
2010 – 1/5 – The Kids Are All Right
2011 – 2/5 – The Artist+, Midnight in Paris
2012 – 2/5 – Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 – 4/5 – American Hustle, Her, Nebraska, Wolf of Wall Street
2014 – 2/5 – Grand Budapest Hotel, Birdman+
2015 – 2/5 – The Martian, The Big Short
2016 – 1/5 – La La Land
2017 – 2/5 – Lady Bird, Get Out
2018 – 3/5 – Green Book+, The Favourite, Vice
2019 – 2/5 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit

So in the era of the expanded ballot, every winner in each category of Best Picture went on to at least get a Best Picture nomination except 2009’s The Hangover. That’s a pretty solid stat, I’d say, since a lot of times the Musical/Comedy category is not that much of a predictor of Best Picture. But I’d say whatever is winning there is likely to be Oscar nominated this year.

Over at The Wrap my pal Steve has laid out how he thinks the race is going to go. He might be right that Best Picture is down to Nomadland vs. The Trial of the Chicago 7. You have to admit, the latter might have more pull with the Golden Globes, setting up for a power struggle heading into the Oscars. I’m not 100% sold on that being the winner but I’m willing to stay open to the possibility. Right now I have to figure Nomadland will have the momentum unless they split Picture and Director, which would make sense in any other year but this one.  Going for it – it’s a movie full of actors and mostly a crowd-pleaser. It speaks to the moment for sure, and will likely speak to many in the Academy who remember their own protest days of the 1960s, aka the older boomers.

I don’t know how the Oscars will go. I think we’re either in for a predictable year (Nomadland) or an unpredictable year (something else). All too often I get an idea in my head that tells me something can’t win (like Parasite last year) and sometimes it’s better for me to lay low and not talk myself into something but that something this year would be voters might be more inclined towards films with more inclusive casts than either Nomadland or Chicago 7, especially in a year when there are so many great diverse films to choose from. There’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, there’s Minari, there’s Judas and the Black Messiah. Who knows whether that factor will matter or not. We’ll just have to see how it goes. I promise not to talk myself into anything, especially in such an unpredictable year. Let’s see how things pan out in coming weeks.

For the Golden Globes, I am thinking Best Picture Drama might go this way:

Nomadland
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
The Father

Those five seem to be the best bet to me, just thinking about these voters and what they respond to. That’s Searchlight, Netflix, Universal, Lionsgate.

That’s how I see it at the moment. But there are other potential films that could pop up, like The United States vs. Billie Holiday. They liked Precious and Lee Daniels and might go for another of his films again.  As you can see, Twitter pressured them into putting Promising Young Woman into Drama which means it may or may not get in the very competitive category. There’s always the chance they might go for something outside the status quo, like The Mauritanian or Judas and the Black Messiah or Sound of Metal.

Moving over to Musical/Comedy it gets a little easier:

Hamilton
The Prom
On the Rocks
Palms Springs
Borat

But I could also see:
Emma
Let Them All Talk
The Personal History of David Copperfield

Hamilton seems like it might just swallow up the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy section. It will be either that or The Prom but Hamilton is Hamilton and if they’re including it at all how do they say no to it?

I mean…it’s just such a thing.

Okay let’s do the Oscars now.

The Best Picture race for the Oscars is tabulated differently than any other group’s ballots except for the Producers Guild, which also implements a preferential ballot process for counting. What this means is that for nominations you’re looking for passion. When it comes to winners you’re looking for general likability. Love and like but not hate. Hate is okay when it comes to nominations – you just have to find a film that might get 100 or so number one votes and then a healthy amount of number two and three votes.

When I am thinking about Best Picture I always think about which groups in the Academy might get those number one votes. When I think of Nomadland it’s a no-brainer. That film will hit across all markers. Actors, writers, directors, etc. When I think about Chicago 7 I think about Anne Thompson’s “steak eaters” – older white boomers and actors. When I think about Mank I think about the directors who will be dazzled by the intricacy and depth of it. I do not, at this moment, trust the “buzz” I hear from people like Scott Feinberg or Steve Pond. They talk to some Academy members, it’s true, but those don’t always amount to being able to be applied to a large group of people. They might, but one or two or three or four isn’t much of a sample size. But you should keep that in mind if you depend on that kind of thing. I never have, not until we get closer to voting. It is, in practice, always better to think of a yes rather than a no, especially in a year such as this with such a prestigious director as Fincher. But Mank is a rather tough nut and isn’t a movie that can be fully appreciated after only one viewing.

Voters in general like movies that glide over them. But remember it doesn’t have to be well liked broadly, it has to earn number one votes, which a film like that might.

Films that will be broadly liked are probably easy calls, like Minari. The “steak eaters” might also go for News of the World maybe, along with The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah. Regina King is incredibly popular in the industry and it’s possible that popularity could earn her film, One Night in Miami, a substantial number of number one votes. Promising Young Woman will likely attract younger voters, anyone who has Me Too on the mind specifically, which will likely be a healthy amount of voters. They will also be trying really hard to be inclusive so they’ll be paying the closest attention to films by women and POC.

Younger voters might also plug into Malcolm & Marie. There is also the question of whether Pixar’s Soul can make the leap into Best Picture finally, the argument being it’s such relatively shallow bench this year, voters might go for it. You’d just need the Disney mafia to go for it and enough votes might put it in. It is quite well liked.

Once the Globes announce their nominations we’ll have a much better idea if we’re on the right track or not.

Predictions

Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
News of the World
Minari
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman

Strong contenders:
Sound of Metal
Malcolm & Marie

Longer shots:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
On the Rocks
The Mauritanian
Soul
Ammonite

Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Strong contenders
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Steven Yeun, Minari
Colin Firth, Supernova

Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie

Strong contenders:
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Longer shots:
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Daniel Kaluuya, Jedas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Arliss Howard, Mank
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Strong contenders
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah

Strong Contenders
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola

Next tier
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always, Eliza Hittman
Ammonite, Francis Lee

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers

Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Malcolm & Marie
The Outpost

Editing
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
Kirk Baxter, Mank
William Goldenberg, News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
The Outpost, Michael Duthie

Production Design
Mank
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
News of the World

Sound
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Outpost
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Costumes
Mank
David Copperfield
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

Score
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Trial of the Chicago 7

Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Midnight Sky

Friends, your guess is as good as mine at this point. Let me know what you’re predicting in the comments.