Golden Globes Preview

Stats are not going to take us very far in 2021. We are mostly flying blind with several factors at play.

Factor #1 – a greatly diminished slate of films to choose from due to COVID.
Factor #2 – of that list, a disproportionate amount of films made or distributed by streaming companies as opposed to big studios (the main source of employment for the Academy, at least traditionally).
Factor #3 – the long span between October and April, compared to how Oscar frontrunners were usually nailed down by now (mostly) and Oscar Night would wrap by the end of February.
Factor #4 – social media influence, ongoing panic and paranoia in culture and government, a desire to defy oppressive systemic racism felt across all industries in American culture, but mostly by the left.
Factor #5 – no in-person campaign events, no “shock and awe” of being in the presence of powerful celebrities, no bedazzled hypnosis at fancy parties with great food and cultivated ideal settings – such glitz isn’t always influential but it’s not nothing.

Regardless of these factors, or keeping them in mind, let’s do a quick stat check about the influence of the Globes, or the predictive factor of the Globes, and the Oscars – specifically related to nominations in the major categories determining, influencing, or predicting Oscar nominations.

We do this mostly for fun and curiosity, but it should not be taken all that seriously, given the above mentioned factors.

In building a chart that looked at Globes Screenplay, Director, and Picture, I realized that the only films that didn’t go on to win Best Picture that were nominated for more than one of those categories were:

It’s Complicated
The Ides of March
Gone Girl
Carol
Nocturnal Animals

And only two titles that had Screenplay nominations but did not go on to get an Oscar Best Picture nomination:

Steve Jobs (which won)
If Beale Street Could Talk

Other than Steve Jobs, every winner in the Director, Screenplay and Picture (Drama) categories went on to at least be nominated since 2009.

There is a pretty good chance that most of the nominees announced on Thursday will be leading the pack for Oscar nominations at least.

As for predicting the Globes this year, believe it or not this is not easy. There are a few different ways they could go. In general, pundits sort of predict the Globes two ways. The first, they think about big stars that the HFPA might try to woo. They know that big stars will draw a bigger audience. But does that matter this year with a virtual Globes and no big party tent with overflowing champagne and celebrities crammed into that room? The second, they go by studio influence. You hear people say “they’ll want to throw Warner Bros. a bone.” This year, that’s another weird one. Who knows! And the third thing pundits are doing this year is that they are factoring in inclusivity – meaning, we assume they will likely favor films by and about people of color or women.

Here are my tentative predictions.

Best Picture, Drama
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alt: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress, Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor, Drama
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Tom Hanks, News of the World

Best Picture Musical/Comedy
Hamilton
The Prom
On the Rocks
Borat
Palm Springs

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Maria Bakalova, Borat
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Dev Patel, David Copperfield
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Supporting Actor
Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Minari

Animated Feature
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
Earwig and the Witch

Clarence Moye’s Predictions

Best Picture, Drama
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alt: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress, Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

Best Actor, Drama
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

Best Picture Musical/Comedy
Borat
Hamilton
On the Rocks
Palm Springs
The Prom

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Director
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night In Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Screenplay
Mank
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7

Animated Feature
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Mark Johnson’s Predictions

Best Picture, Drama
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alt: Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress, Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

Best Actor, Drama
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

Best Picture Musical/Comedy
Hamilton
Borat
On the Rocks
Palm Springs
The Prom

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Director
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night In Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Screenplay
Mank
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7

Animated Feature
The Willoughbys
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Ryan Adams’ Predictions:

Best Picture, Drama
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alt: One Night In Miami

Best Actress, Drama
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

Best Actor, Drama
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Best Picture Musical/Comedy
Hamilton
On the Rocks
Palm Springs
Borat
The Prom

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Maria Bakalova, Borat
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Meryl Streep, The Prom

Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, David Copperfield
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Supporting Actress
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Supporting Actor
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Director
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
George C Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Regina King, One Night In Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

Screenplay
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
One Night In Miami

Animated Feature
Wolfwalkers
Over the Moon
Soul
The Croods: A New Age
Onward