Predictions Friday: The Pundits Predict a Split

Since we don’t have any other intel at the moment besides critics, viewers of Netflix, and Film Twitter we simply can’t gauge how the movies are actually playing with audiences. Right now, the going consensus appears to be The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Picture (a first for Netflix) and Chloe Zhao for Best Director (a first for Asian women).

Predicting splits are always tricky and almost always impossible, unless they’re decided upon early. Like if this is how it plays out at the Globes, which it might. And if Zhao wins the DGA, Chicago 7 wins SAG and then it comes down to the PGA. If Nomadland wins there, then it’s a toss up as to which wins at Oscar. Shape of Water won PGA + DGA and was not nominated for the SAG. Chicago 7, without anything but the SAG, Nomadland would have to follow in the footsteps of Parasite or Crash. Not impossible. Green Book, it’s worth noting, won Best Picture while Alfonso Cuaron (decided early) kept winning Best Director. So the question is – is Chloe Zhao’s trajectory more like Alfonso Cuaron’s or Kathryn Bigelow’s? If the former, Nomadland will not win Best Picture. If the latter, it will take PGA+DGA and Best Picture + Best Director.

But we should not underestimate what it feels like to be stuck inside the feedback loop of Film Twitter, and how that can mess with perceptions of reality. It’s hard to say how many in the industry pay attention to it at all. Media might springboard off of it but everyone could end up surprised by the end.

Let’s take Green Book as an example. The reason that movie did so well in the Oscar race was despite Film Twitter, despite the critics, despite the dominance of the hive mind. It was absolutely touch and go but by the time Film Twitter had dug up one of the screenwriter’s pro-Trump, pro-Muslim ban tweets, it made headlines. It went so much further than that – the screenwriter whose family was part of the reason why the film got made in the first place, was disallowed to show up to accept the awards the film had coming to them. In a panel discussion, Viggo Mortensen spoke the “n” word in an linguistic context — but all many people heard was that he was saying a disgusting word out lout, and that sent another shockwave through the mass hysteria inclined Film Twitter. It went even farther than that – they dug up stories of Peter Farrelly on the set of movies whipping out his Kingpin as an ill-considered joke.

Green Book was clumsily smeared as a racist, which meant people who liked the movie (the majority) were smeared as racists by default. Because I defended my site, a commenter here the other day sneered, “This site hasn’t been the same as Green Book.” Man, I’d do it all over again because I know a mass hysteria witch hunt when I see one. They needed to find ways to talk people out of liking the film, just as they did when The Help topped Netflix during the protests. The reality did not match the narrative.

The bottom line here is that Green Book succeeded despite that. Why? Because the majority of Academy voters are not plugged into film twitter. They simply saw the movie, enjoyed it greatly.

I met an Oscar voter from the animation branch the year after Green Book won and she said she felt shame for her vote and wished she’d voted for Roma. I’m sure she had no crisis of conscience when voting for Parasite the following year. It a good reminder of the disconnect – except for this year. There is no other offered up reality. There is only one: the feedback loop.

Why this matters — the culture of the educated left — aka critics + Oscar voters is very much wrapped up in being thought of as good people. They are very easy to manipulate, and always have been, if you appeal to this — which film makes them FEEL GOOD when they vote for it and why. Remember when I used to talk about the warming the cockles of the heart way back when vis a vis The King’s Speech vs. Social Network? It is still that way. The only difference is that in the post Trump climate, that is also wrapped up in defending one’s political world view with their vote.

Stories last year about Greta Gerwig’s Best Director snub went all the way to The Washington Post and New York Times, remember that? The ongoing “Oscars so white” activism on Twitter when the acting nominees last year were all white was a problem. Had Parasite not won, the Oscar winners in the top categories would all be white: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Picture, Writer, Director. Can you imagine what the headlines would have been? As it was, they dodged a bullet with Parasite and ended the night as heroes, making history with the first South Korean Film and the first foreign language film ever to win Best Picture.

That brings us to the new competing frontrunners. Film Twitter appears to be very excited about The Trial of the Chicago 7 becoming the new frontrunner. I would imagine that the theory is that Chloe Zhao will win Best Director for Nomadland and something else will win Best Picture, and given its prominence at Globes and SAG, that movie is now assumed by many to be Chicago 7.

Chicago 7 appears to be popular and people who cast their vote and support around a film with a cast of color, like One Night in Miami or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or Judas and the Black Messiah or Da 5 Bloods will have their votes split up among several impressive options. That helps Chicago 7 for sure, especially if the actors branch puts their weight behind it.

But I keep coming back to the potential shitstorms and this of all years there being a need to reward a film that speaks to the moment. Chicago 7 definitely does in that it is about a similar time in American history when the people rose up to challenge the government. Their challenge was protesting the Vietnam war and they were wiling to use any means necessary to achieve that, even if it came to violence. The left of late seems to be torn about whether violence is acceptable or not, whether extremes in protest are acceptable or not. By the end of the era of the Chicago 7, the protests against the brutal war did eventually help end it, but, as the movie points out, it put Democrats in a vulnerable position, power-wise, going forward. They would not regain presidential power until 1992, after a brief stop with Jimmy Carter.

The key for Chicago 7, or any movie in 2020, to win is to figure out what it is about the movie that makes people feel good about voting for it. What gives them that “urgency to vote” that is required. Did they “just love it so much” or does their vote feel “important”. Do they feel like they’re doing “good” with their vote and thus, it makes them look good? This is usually what is the driver of a consensus vote.

As of now, I still feel like Nomadland has it because it is a movie that makes people FEEL something while watching it – sad, but also hopeful. It is a movie you can’t hate. And it’s a movie that was written, directed and edited by a Chinese woman. So – how do you not vote for that?

But we’ll have to see how it plays out in terms of where the momentum goes. My only hesitancy with Chicago 7 is that I don’t know what they’d be voting FOR. What is the urgency to vote for the movie? Does Aaron Sorkin become a hero for a season? Are they going to vote for him because he directed a movie that is doing well? Ten years ago that is how it would likely go. He’d be the toast of the town. But he’s a white male in a time when they are being asked to step aside so that previously marginalized groups to be recognized. True of the Biden administration, true of the new inclusivity standards at BAFTA and at the Oscars, true across the board everywhere in the aftermath of the protests last year. Will any of that matter? So I will be watching to see how all of this unfolds.

Clearly, the BAFTA voters really loved it, with 15 overall mentions on the long list. Here is how the other films played with BAFTA:

Trial of the Chicago 7 – 15 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Mank – 14 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Promising Young Woman – 13 (including ic+Dir+Scr+acting)
News of the World – 12 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 11 (including Pic+Scr+acting)
The Mauritanian – 11 (Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Da 5 Bloods – 9 (Pic+Scr+acting)
Nomadland – 8 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Minari – 8 (including Dir+Scr+acting)
The Father – 8 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Sound of Metal – 7 (Pic+Scr+acting)
Judas and the Black Messiah – 7 (Scr+acting)
The White Tiger – 7 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
One Night in Miami – 6 (including Pic+Dir+Scr+acting)
Soul – 6 (including Pic+Scr)

Here are my current predictions, for what it’s worth:

Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland — AFI/NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting + ensemble
Minari – AFI/NBR/SAG acting + ensemble
Mank – AFI/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
Promising Young Woman – NBR/Globes Pic+Dir+Scr/SAG acting
The Father – Globes Pic/SAG acting
One Night in Miami – AFI/Globes Dir
News of the World NBR/SAG acting
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG acting+ensemble
Sound of Metal – AFI/NBR
Judas and the Black Messiah AFI/NBR/SAG acting
Soul Picture, Animated Feature, Screenplay, Score – PGA

Longer shots: Any of these films could be boosted by either Globes or BAFTA
Da 5 Bloods (SAG acting + ensemble)
The Mauritanian (Globes acting)

Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (Globes)
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes)
Regina King, One Night in Miami (Globes)
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank (Globes)

Next tier
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (Globes)
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Anthony Hopkins, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (Globes/SAG)
Gary Oldman, Mank (Globes/SAG)
Steven Yeun, Minari (SAG)

Strong contenders
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Colin Firth, Supernova

Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Globes/SAG)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Globes/SAG)
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday (Globes)
Frances McDormand, Nomadland (Globes/SAG)
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (Globes/SAG)

Strong contenders:
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes)
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (Globes)
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Robin Wright, Land

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7 (Globes/SAG)
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (Globes/SAG)
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (Globes/SAG)
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (Globes)
Jared Leto, The Little Things (Globes/SAG)

Strong contenders
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Arliss Howard, Mank
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Damian Bichir, Land
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank

Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (Globes/SAG)
Helena Zengel, News of the World (Globes/SAG)
Olivia Colman, The Father (Globes/SAG)
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (Globes/SAG)
Amanda Seyfried, Mank (Globes)

Strong Contenders
Maria Bakolova (SAG)
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (Globes)
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

Original Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin (Globes)
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell (Globes)
Mank, Jack Fincher (Globes)
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Eliza Hittman

Next tier
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Ammonite, Francis Lee

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao (Globes)
The Father, Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller(Globes)
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers

Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
Trial of the Chicago 7

Editing
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah

Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman

Sound
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Outpost
The Prom

Costumes
Mank
David Copperfield
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

Score
Nomadland
News of the World
Soul
Mank
Trial of the Chicago 7

Next tier:
Tenet
The Midnight Sky

Hair/Makeup
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emma

Animated Feature 
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
The Croods

Full list of eligible animated films here

Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
All in The Fight for Democracy
The Dissident
City Hall
Collective

Strong contenders
The Social Dilemma
Time
Dick Johnson is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI

Here are the eligible films for Doc Feature

Foreign Language
Collective (Romania)
Another Round (Denmark)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
(TBD)
(TBD)

Here are the eligible films for Foreign Language.