Writers Guild Preview and Predictions and Contest!

[The contest is at the end of this post.]

The Writers Guild will announce their nominations tomorrow. But you might be surprised by what will be left off of it. Here is Pete Hammond’s column from last month on the omissions:

Unlike other guilds, the WGA has stringent requirements and the script must have been written under the WGA MBA or a bona fide agreement with sister guilds in various countries. Among those higher profile Oscar contending movies not on the WGA ballot of eligible screenplays this year are Minari, Mank (written by Fincher’s father, Jack, who died in 2003), Nomadland, The Father, Pieces of a Woman, Ammonite, Soul (and any other animated film), Emma, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Let Them All Talk and several others.

Nomadland is likely the frontrunner in the Adapted Screenplay category at the Oscars. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman seem to be battling it out in the Original Screenplay category.

First, let’s look at the history.  In the year since the expanded ballot, here is how the WGA has matched with Best Picture:

2009
WGA Original (3/5)
The Hurt Locker – WGA winner, Oscar screenplay winner, BP winner
Avatar BP nominee
A Serious Man – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee

WGA Adapted (2/5)
Up in the Air – WGA winner, Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Precious – WGA nominee, Oscar Screenplay winner + BP nominee

2010
WGA – Original (3/5)
Inception – WGA winner, +BP nominee
The Fighter – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
The Kids Are All Right – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
(*The King’s Speech not eligible for WGA, won Original Screenplay + BP)

WGA Adapted (3/5)
The Social Network – WGA/Oscar Winner Screenplay + BP nominee
127 Hours – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
True Grit – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee

2011 (2/5)
Original
Midnight in Paris – WGA/Oscar Winner Screenplay + BP nominee
Bridesmaids – Oscar Screenplay nominee

Adapted (3/5)
The Descendants – WGA/Oscar Winner Screenplay + BP nominee
Hugo – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Moneyball – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee

2012  (3/5)
Original
Zero Dark Thirty WGA winner, Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Flight – Oscar Screenplay nominee
Moonrise Kingdom – Oscar Screenplay nominee
(*Django Unchained not WGA eligible, Oscar Screenplay winner, plus BP nominee)

Adapted (4/5)
Argo – WGA winner, Oscar screenplay winner, BP winner
Life of Pi – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Silver Linings Playbook – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Lincoln – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee

2013
Original (5/5)
Her WGA/Oscar Screenplay winner, BP nominee
American Hustle – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Dallas Buyers Club – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Nebraska – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Blue Jasmine – Oscar Screenplay nominee

Adapted (2/5)
Captain Phillips – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Wolf of Wall Street – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
(*12 Years a Slave not WGA eligible, Oscar Screenplay + Picture winner)
Before Midnight – Oscar Screenplay nominee

2014
Original
The Grand Budapest Hotel – WGA winner, Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Boyhood – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Whiplash – Put in Adapted at the Oscars but Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Foxcatcher – Oscar Screenplay nominee
Nightcrawler – Oscar Screenplay nominee
(*Birdman not WGA eligible, Oscar Screenplay + Picture winner)

Adapted
Imitation Game – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
American Sniper – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee

2015
Original 
Spotlight – WGA/Oscar Screenplay Winner + BP winner
Bridge of Spies – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Straight Outta Compton – Oscar Screenplay nominee

Adapted
The Big Short – WGA/Oscar Screenplay Winner + BP nominee
The Martian – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Carol- Oscar Screenplay nominee

2016
Original
Moonlight (*Oscar Screenplay winner in ADAPTED + BP winner)
Manchester by the Sea – Oscar Screenplay Winner + BP nominee
La La Land – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee
Hell or High Water – Oscar Screenplay + BP nominee

Adapted
Arrival – WGA Screenplay winner, Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Fences – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Hidden Figures – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee

2017
Original
Get Out – WGA/Oscar Screenplay Winner + BP nominee
Lady Bird – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
The Shape of Water – Oscar screenplay + BP WINNER
The Big Sick – Oscar screenplay nominee

Adapted
Call Me by Your Name – Oscar screenplay Winner+ BP nominee
The Disaster Artist – Oscar screenplay nominee
Logan – Oscar screenplay nominee
Molly’s Game – Oscar screenplay nominee
Mudbound – Oscar screenplay nominee

2018
Original
Eighth Grade – WGA Screenplay winner
Green Book – Oscar Screenplay + BP winner
Vice – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Roma – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee

Adapted
Can You Ever Forgive Me? WGA Screenplay winner, Oscar screenplay nominee
BlacKkKlansman – Oscar screenplay WINNER + BP nominee
A Star Is Born – Oscar screenplay nominee + BP nominee
If Beale Street Could Talk – Oscar screenplay nominee

2019
Original
Parasite – WGA/Oscar Screenplay + BP Winner
1917  – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Marriage Story – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Knives Out  – Oscar screenplay nominee

Adapted
Jojo Rabbit – WGA/Oscar screenplay WINNER + BP nominee
The Irishman – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Joker – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee
Little Women – Oscar screenplay + BP nominee

Obviously, it does not hurt a popular film to be left off the WGA’s list. We’ve seen plenty of films miss out on that nomination and then go on to win the Oscar for Screenplay and even for Best Picture.

And even when a film misses at WGA, as Green Book did in 2018, that still might not tell you what the eventual outcome is. Green Book’s uproar came along in time to influence the WGA and they picked Eighth Grade even though it wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar. That was unusual. But for Green Book to win Best Picture (and that was a hard year to predict, btw, though I got it right) it would have had to win Best Picture, EVEN AFTER losing the WGA.

In general, in the era of the preferential ballot (2009-present), the screenplay category is a bigger deal to Best Picture than even Best Director. We know that the Screenplay award is going to make a huge difference.

They are paired, Picture and Screenplay, with a few exceptions here or there, like The Shape of Water. But that doesn’t mean the WGA goes that way. It was a good early indicator of Parasite’s popularity. It is hard to know what the WGA’s impact will be this year, considering so many titles aren’t in the running.

Now let’s look at what we have so far:

First, let’s look at a couple of nominees. First up, the Golden Globes:

Promising Young Woman – Original
Mank – Original
Trial of the Chicago 7 – Original
The Father – Adapted
Nomadland – Adapted

Now let’s look at the Critics Choice Screenplay nominations:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Minari  
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Sound of Metal
Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

News of the World
The Father
One Night in Miami
First Cow
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
Nomadland 

Scripter (Adapted only)

Bad Education
First Cow
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

National Board of Review
News of the World – Adapted
Minari – Original

New York Film Critics
Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Los Angeles Film Critics
Promising Young Woman

That leaves us with:

Original
Promising Young Woman III
The Trial of the Chicago 7 II
Never Rarely Sometimes Always II
Sound of Metal I

Adapted
One Night in Miami II
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom II
First Cow II
News of the World II
Bad Education I

Essentially, the pundits right now think that these awards will likely split at the Oscars, with Nomadland winning in Adapted and Chicago 7 winning in Original. Aaron Sorkin’s main competition seems to be Promising Young Woman.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 could head into the Oscars with a WGA win and a SAG ensemble win, giving it what Parasite had heading in, even if Chloe Zhao wins at the PGA and DGA. We’ll have to see how this all plays out, but something will have to happen to disrupt Chicago 7’s path for Promising Young Woman to rise and overtake it, but you never know.

It is still too early to be able to solidly predict how it might go. Here is how we think it might go. Our contest will follow this so you can enter your own predictions.

Sasha Stone’s predictions:
Adapted:
One night in Miami
Ma Rainey
First Cow
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
News of the World

Original:
Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Alt. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Mark Johnson’s predictions:
Adapted:
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey
First Cow
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
News of the World

Original:
Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Marshall Flores’ Predictions
Original:
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted:
First Cow
The Invisible Man
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
One Night in Miami

Enter our contest!