Great directors are rare in Hollywood. If American born directors make movies that win Best Picture, every other country but America seems to be producing directors who win in Best Director. What drives this modern phenomenon is hard to know. The Oscars, like the country, is becoming more global, less domestic. What is expected from directors here, versus directors from other countries, I do not know. Is it an education thing? A capitalist thing? Is it a storytelling thing?
What I think it means is that once they expanded the ballot, and once Argo won Best Picture without even a Best Director nomination for Ben Affleck that the conjoined twins of Picture and Director were separated and thus, Best Director often goes to the more visionary work, where Best Picture on a preferential ballot tends to be more generally liked.
What does it matter? It doesn’t, particularly, but it is a pattern I’ve noticed over the past few years. The pattern is undeniable and inexplicable yet the pattern remains nonetheless. Going back 20 years:
2000–Steven Soderbergh, Traffic – USA
2001–Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind – USA
2002–Roman Polanski, The Pianist – Poland
2003–Peter Jackson, Return of the King – New Zealand
2004–Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby – USA
2005–Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain – Taiwan (American citizen)
2006–Martin Scorsese, The Departed – USA
2007–Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men – USA
2008–Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire — UK
2009–Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker — USA
2010–Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech –UK
2011–Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist–France
2012–Ang Lee, Life of Pi –Taiwan (American citizen)
2013–Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity–Mexico
2014–Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman–Mexico
2015–Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant — Mexico
2016–Damien Chazelle, La La Land – USA
2017–The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
2018–Alfonso Cuaron, Roma — Mexico
2019–Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite — South Korea
There seems to be no stopping Chloe Zhao from winning this year and becoming the first woman of color to win the DGA and the Oscar. That we will have to watch this happen virtually is a huge drag. It is a drag that we can’t see people leap to their feet in tears of joy that history has just been made. Instead it will have to fall to Twitter and to the journalists who only pay attention to Twitter and maybe the odd network entertainment show to celebrate it.
It is what it is.
The DGA membership is massive compared to the Oscar directors branch, with a whopping 18,000 members. Not all of them are feature directors – many are assistant directors and TV directors. The directing branch of the Academy has 526 members, with many new women and people of color added to the roster in the past two years in order to diversify their very male voting bloc.
Last year there was a fake scandal that sexism drove the female nominees from the list. It was a fake scandal that became a real scandal once the major papers got in on forwarding that narrative. It was among one of the first times I noticed that the press was running with opinion pieces as news. Why do they do it? Clicks. Engagement. The truth was that the directors in the Best Director category had all won major awards heading into the Oscar nominations and that more than anything determined who got in. By the time the DGA nominations rolled around, no consensus had formed around any one woman. Eventually votes coalesced around Greta Gerwig for Little Women but she could knock out the favorites that were ahead of her. Thus, a fake controversy was born.
That, on top of the Me Too movement, the Times Up movement, the antiracism movement of the past few years has pushed women into the race like never before. More women have films in the Oscar race this year, and specifically more women of color. The Golden Globes has a record three nominees, Emerald Fennell for Promising young Woman, Regina King for One Night in Miami, and Chloe Zhao for Nomadland.
Nomadland has been beloved from the beginning, winning award after award but really the buzz for Zhao started the previous year for her breakout film The Rider. Critics were already primed to award Zhao and when she delivered the beautiful, haunting Nomadland it was a no-brainer she would rise to the top of the pile. It is both the high achievement of her film and the chance to make Oscar history that is driving her frontrunner status. At the moment, it does not look like anyone can touch her in this race.
The DGA five is ordinarily at least one different from the Oscar Best Director lineup. In general, films that are likely win Best Picture will get into the DGA even if they don’t get into the Oscars – like Green Book’s Peter Farrelly or Argo’s Ben Affleck. When you think about the DGA think about Best Picture, not necessarily Best Director.
They like popular directors and popular movies, though that popularity, at least for now, very much lives inside the bubble of the awards ecosystem; you’re never going to see a genre name suddenly show up, unfortunately – they stick to the program, more or less. The DGA is a good indicator of which movies are most popular overall, which is helpful.
Other than Chloe Zhao, who might make the list?
David Fincher is among a handful of best directors this country has ever produced, but also among a small handful of the greatest who has never won an Oscar for Best Directing. He’s been nominated for the Oscar twice, and for the DGA three times. Mank is the guilds champ at the moment, and looks likely to hit the PGA and the DGA to close the deal. Mank is an exquisite work of art and is unlike any other film released this year. Every frame takes your breath away. That to me is what makes a great director. Some come to movies for an emotional release, or a catharsis – and see directors as storytellers taking them somewhere and teaching them something about themselves. A director’s eye, or perspective, is often what sets them apart as a director. But some of them are masters of the frame. Those are my favorite kind and Fincher is most definitely at the top of that list. He is so exacting that he has made sure the film includes those reminder dots of old, an indicator for the projectionist to change film reels. I was a projectionist so I know the dots well. In the projection booth at Columbia University I was taught when you see the dot to wait eight seconds and then change the reel. To this day when I see the dot I count eight times for the reel change. This is the kind of weird specificity in the film Mank that is illustrative of Fincher’s exacting style but it also shows an appreciation for making a movie that is wholly digital and living in the digital realm but is, at the same time, a clever wink and a nod to FILM film. And of course, that is just one thing – Roseville pottery on the shelves, reinventing old Hollywood with a gorgeous, mind-blowing shot of the Hollywood sign through a studio lot. Thus, I’m counting on, betting on the directors knowing enough to nominate David Fincher for the DGA and Oscar. If they don’t, they’re fools.
Chloe Zhao and David Fincher seem to be the strongest bets right now for both DGA and Oscar. That is how it seems right now but one never knows does one.
Aaron Sorkin seems a sure bet for the DGA at the very least with arguably the most popular film in the race, The Trial of the Chicago 7. It will be Sorkin’s first nomination, and thus, the Academy’s branch might decide not to nominate him, but I think he’s probably in. Sorkin is highly popular and well known throughout the film industry so they’d have to hate the movie not to nominate it for the DGA. And they do not hate the movie. I think Sorkin has lived up to the promise of evolving from a writer to a director with this, his second feature. Sorkin is someone who leans on story, performance and above all dialogue. He has managed to make a movie that is cut to the rhythm of his his writing, which Fincher did so masterfully. I’m not sure he got there with Molly’s Game but he definitely gets there here. That is why he needed a great editor. I’m betting on Sorkin getting in for the DGA. That’s three.
That leaves us with two slots and several narratives to fill here and several ways the story might be told after the DGA’s announcement.
Lee Isaac Chung‘s Minari is another one that seems like it could be more Oscar friendly for Chung than DGA friendly but I think it’s likely to get in as the film itself is becoming more and more popular as the season wears on. It is most definitely a film that is building word of mouth. Thus, I can see him getting in for both.
Then there is Regina King for One Night in Miami. She has made a strong film with One Night in Miami as her first feature. King is popular in the industry and already has a Golden Globe nomination for Best Director. Most would probably say she is more DGA friendly than Oscar friendly, but I suspect if it she makes the DGA it’s an easy call for Oscar.
My gut tells me there is a good chance Paul Greengrass gets in for News of the World. It’s a popular film and he’s a popular director and Tom Hanks is a popular star. That means, at the very least, voters will have likely watched the film. He is a revered director and has made a major studio release – so there’s that. News of the World is second only to Mank in terms of guild nominations – that doesn’t mean nothing. Mank has 9 and News of the World has 8. That means it has a more than good chance of getting in here. The question then becomes, which director would he replace?
Emerald Fennell has made one of the more popular movies of the season and already has a Globes Director and Picture nomination, which seems to be both DGA and Oscar friendly. While the common wisdom is that it would be more Oscar friendly, the film itself – Promising Young Woman – is popular and therefore she could be DGA friendly. I would not be surprised if she showed up for both. It seems like an easy call to say it is among the five most popular films of the year.
Shaka King is another director on the rise in Hollywood and his Judas and the Black Messiah could most definitely make either the DGA or Oscar. King is not as well known but his film is spreading via word of mouth. Judas is a nice partner film to Chicago 7, as both are about the Black Panthers in the height of the Civil Rights movements of the 1970s.
Spike Lee could also get in on his name and reputation alone, and the fact that he won for Best Director at the National Board of Review. Da 5 Bloods was released very early and has a SAG ensemble nomination. He is exactly the kind of prestige director that can show up at the Globes where a name that isn’t as well known might not.
Other possibilities: George C. Wolfe‘s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Florian Zeller for The Father.
We’ll be posting our predictions tomorrow. Don’t forget to enter our contest.
Won DGA | Won Oscar
*film nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars
+film won Best Picture at the Oscars
2019
Sam Mendes, 1917 | Sam Mendes, 1917* |
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite+ | Bong Joon Ho, Parasite+ |
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman | Martin Scorsese, The Irishman* |
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood* |
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit* | Todd Phillips, Joker* |
2018
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma | Alfonso Cuaron, Roma+ |
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born* | Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War |
Peter Farrelly, Green Book+ | Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite* |
Adam McKay, Vice | Adam McKay, Vice* |
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman | Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman* |
2017
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water | Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water+ |
Jordan Peele, Get Out | Jordan Peele, Get Out* |
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk | Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk* |
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird | Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird* |
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards* | Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread* |
2016
Damien Chazelle, La La Land | Damien Chazelle, La La Land* |
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchster by the Sea | Kenneth Lonergan, Manchster by the Sea* |
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight | Barry Jenkins, Moonlight+ |
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival | Denis Villeneuve, Arrival* |
Garth Davis, Lion* | Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge* |
2015
The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu | The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu* |
The Big Short, Adam McKay | The Big Short, Adam McKay* |
Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller | Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller* |
The Martian, Ridley Scott* | Lenny Abrahamson, Room* |
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy | Spotlight, Tom McCarthy+ |
2014
Richard Linklater, Boyhood |
Richard Linklater, Boyhood* |
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman |
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman+ |
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel | Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel* |
Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game | Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game* |
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper* | Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher |
2013
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity |
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity* |
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave | Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave+ |
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips* | Alexander Payne, Nebraska* |
David O. Russell, American Hustle | David O. Russell, American Hustle* |
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street* | Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street* |
2012
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln |
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln* |
Ang Lee, Life of Pi | Ang Lee, Life of Pi* |
Ben Affleck, Argo* |
David O. Russell, Silver Linings* |
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty* | Michael Haneke Amour* |
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables* | Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild* |
2011
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist |
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+ |
Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo* |
Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants* |
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris* |
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Terrence Malick, Tree of Life* |
2010
Tom Hooper The King’s Speech |
Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ |
David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network* |
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* |
David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter* |
Christopher Nolan, Inception* | The Coens, True Grit* |
2009
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker |
Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ |
Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* |
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* |
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds* |
Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* |
2008
Danny Boyle, Slumdog |
Danny Boyle, Slumdog+ |
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* |
Gus Van Sant, Milk | Gus Van Sant, Milk* |
David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* |
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* |
2007
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country |
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Jason Reitman, Juno* |
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
2006
Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen* |
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* |
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* | Paul Greengrass, United 93 |
Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
2005
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain |
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* |
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* |
Paul Haggis, Crash | Paul Haggis, Crash+ |
Bennett Miller, Capote | Bennett Miller, Capote* |
Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich* |
2004
Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* |
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* |
Taylor Hackford for Ray | Taylor Hackford for Ray* |
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Mike Leigh for Vera Drake |
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby |
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ |
2003
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* |
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* |
Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ |
Peter Weir, Master and Commander | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* |
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* | Fernando Merielles, City of God |
2002
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York |
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York* |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* |
Pedro Almodovar, Talk to her |
Roman Polanski, The Pianist | Roman Polanski, The Pianist* |
Rob Marshall, Chicago | Rob Marshall, Chicago+ |
Steven Daldry, The Hours | Steven Daldry, The Hours* |
2001
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+ |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings |
Peter Jackson, LOTR* |
Christopher Nolan, Memento | Robert Altman, Gosford Park* |
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down | Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down |
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* | David Lynch, Mulholland Drive |
2000
Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous | Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot* |
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Ridley Scott, Gladiator | Ridley Scott, Gladiator+ |
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich* |
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic* |