Predictions Friday: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions

The longest Oscar season in their (and our) history is about to come to its final act. We’re heading into the the nominations to be announced at last on Monday morning. How they go will determine what our next few weeks are going to be like. Will it be a Golden Globes like situation where the Academy must put out statements and vow to change membership and attend bias training or will it be like the BAFTAs where the nominations are inclusive enough to avoid controversy? Not everyone is going to be happy with how things turn out – least of all Twitter. Because when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

I’ve written enough. Now, let’s get on with it, shall we? I don’t feel confident about these nominations at all. I’ve looked at the predictions of others, rewatched some films and wondered where the big movies will miss. We know there will be some good surprises and some bad surprises – either way, we’ll swim this river together. My predictions are likely different here on the Oscar Squad and at Gold Derby. But this is the final list, which I reserve the right to tinker with over the weekend.

Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World or The Father

* The Mauritanian, Judas and the Black Messiah, Another Round too. 

Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
*I do think there is a good chance Regina King gets in here but I do not know whom to bump. 

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Alt. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Best Actor 
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun, Minari

Alts. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian, Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

Supporting Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Maria Bakalova, Borat
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian–new
Alt. Amanda Seyfried, Mank, Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Alt. Jared Leto, The Little Things

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Mauritanian
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Father
Alt.  News of the World, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman
Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
Alt. Sound of Metal

Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
Minari
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Costume Design
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
News of the World
Mulan

Editing
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Sound of Metal
Minari

Makeup and Hairstyling
Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
Pinoccio
Alt. Birds of Prey

Production Design
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the Wold
Mulan
Tenet
Alt. Emma, The Midnight Sky

Original Score
Soul
Mank
News of the World
Minari
Midnight Sky

Song
Speak Now
Lo Si
Fight for You
Hear My Voice
Show Me Your Soul
Alt. Turntables

Sound
Sound of Metal
Greyhound
News of the World
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alt. Mank

Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
Welcome to Chechnya
The One and Only Ivan

Animated Feature 
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods
Over the Moon

Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Collective
Welcome to Chechnya
Alt. All In: The Fight for Democracy

International Film
Another Round
The Two of Us
Collective
La Llorona
Quo Vadis, Aida?

Animated Short
If Anything Happens I Love You
The Snail and the Whale
Out
Opera
Yes-People
Alt. Burrow

Documentary Short 
The Speed Cubers
Collette
Call Center Blues
A Love Song for Latasha
A Concerto is a Conversation

Live Action Short
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
Two Distant Strangers
Da Yie
The Present
Alt. Bittu

Here are the guild charts (thanks again to Marshall Flores):