The State of the Race – Now the PGA Have Spoken, What Now?

The Producers Guild announced their 10 nominees today and the DGA, BAFTA, and ASC will ring in tomorrow. The Oscar voting deadline is the next day, the 10th. There is a good chance that many already locked in their picks – after all, they’ve had a long time to think about it, like months. And months. And months.

Some films are making big headlines, which will pierce through the noise and give them some extra publicity. A congressman is introducing a bill to remove J. Edgar Hoover’s name from the FBI building after watching Judas and the Black Messiah, for instance. Borat making the Producers Guild is going to make headlines. These things will likely catch the attention of voters who haven’t yet cast their ballot, where some other things people in the know are talking about will not.

If these nominations had come out a week ago they might have a chance to shift Oscar voters but it’s not known how many of them have already voted. (Ballots went out last Friday.)

Here is what you need to know:

1. The Producers Guild uses a slightly different tabulation method than the Oscars do, at least this year. Next year the Oscars will use the same method as the PGA. But for now, they’re different. And they’re different enough that you really need to stop and take a breath on some of the titles that may or may not get in. It’s the difference between Bridesmaids or Sicario or Straight Out of Compton making the PGA but Philomena, Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close getting into the Oscars.
2. In general, because the highest number of movies the Academy usually nominates under the current system is 9, one PGA title already has to go. That’s your job, should you choose to accept it, figuring out the discard. Take the PGA list, drop one, then think about dropping another, then think about maybe adding one. Here are the movies that were taken away since the slates were expanded:
   Invictus, The Town, The Ides of March, Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, Moonrise Kingdom, Saving Mr. Banks, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, Ex Machina, Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, Deadpool, I Tonya, The Big Sick, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out.Here are the movies added in:
   The Blind Side, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Amour, Philomena, Selma, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody.

   More get taken away, obviously, because at least one has to, than get added in. What these films appear to have in common is they have a smaller group of people who like them but those who do feel passionately about them. Actors seems to lead the way here as acting WINNERS are in three of the Oscar additions. That would seem to indicate that The Father might have an outside shot here, given the strength of Anthony Hopkins, but it could also mean that News of the World has a shot, given the popularity of Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel’s performance and Paul Greengrass. These two films MIGHT get in. Or they might not. But the only thing you know for sure is that not all ten are getting in.

The main difference between the producers and the Academy is that actors vote in larger numbers, but not just any actors – working actors, veteran actors, industry actors. The PGA is more “populist” and the Academy is more “elite,” as far as it goes. That is also how one might describe the taste of the Globes more than any other group, which is probably why some of the films that land in the final Best Picture lineup show up only at the Globes first, like Philomena or Selma. But some come from other places, like the Critics Choice or the SAG ensemble. The question to ask is about what performances might drag a movie into the race that isn’t there today with the PGA. You can see obviously Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman dragging in The Father, Helena Zengel dragging in News of the World, but you could also see Maria Bakalova dragging in Borat. But if that happens, which films is dropped off?

Nomadland – locked – Best Actress, Best Director, Screenplay
Minari – locked – Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Best Director, Screenplay
Chicago 7 – locked – Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay
Promising Young Woman – locked – Best Actress, Screenplay, maybe Director
Mank – locked – Best Actor, Director, Screenplay
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – locked, Best Actor frontrunner
Judas and the Black Messiah – probably locked, with Supporting Actor frontrunner
One Night in Miami – locked, potentially Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Screenplay

Wiggle room for these two but potentially both in or out:
Sound of Metal – Best Actor contender
Borat – Supporting Actress contender, maybe frontrunner – Screenplay

Then we have these films waiting in the wings:

News of the World – Best Supporting Actress, Screenplay
The Father – Best Actor contender, Screenplay
Da 5 Bloods – maybe Best Supporting Actor, maybe Director
Another Round – Foreign Language but could be surprise Best Actor nom
The Mauritanian – Supporting Actress contender
Soul – Animated Feature, but you never know

The ballot count process will first certify the films that get the most number one votes. After that, in subsequent rounds of eliminations, movies that scored well with number two votes, and number three votes. All the way down the line. Whatever gets in will need a sense of urgency about it.

Tomorrow, with the DGA, we’ll get another major piece of the puzzle. It will either confirm what we already know or it will transform it. With these ballot deadlines right on top of each other, they won’t be influenced by one another. The voters are “flying blind.”

When BAFTA comes out tomorrow keep in mind that the Director and Acting categories are now jury selected, not strictly voter selected, so they won’t really factor in as much as if the whole membership was voting. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t. It’s not like this year has a very big pile of movies to choose from.

YE AULDE SAG ENSEMBLE NOD STAT

If Nomadland wins the PGA, that puts it in the same position as La La Land as a film that won the Globe for Picture and Director, the Critics Choice for Picture and Director but no SAG Ensemble nomination. Marshall Flores tells me that every other film that won Best Picture and Best Director at Globes and BFCA had an ensemble nod:

Saving Private Ryan (PGA/DGA/Oscar best Director)
American Beauty (PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar Best Picture/Director)
A Beautiful Mind (PGA/DGA/Oscar Best Picture/Director)
Brokeback Mountain (PGA/DGA/Oscar Best Director)
Slumdog Millionaire (PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar Best Picture/Director)
The Artist (PGA/DGA/Oscar Best Picture/Director)
Argo (PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar Best Picture)
Social Network
Boyhood
La La Land (PGA/DGA/Oscar Best Director)

After La La Land nothing has ever been the same.

The Shape of Water was in the same place only it had not won Best Picture at the Globes, just Best Director.  The only weakness shown in that film’s trajectory was not having a SAG ensemble nom. Without that nomination, one must always be wary. 1917 won the Globe and the PGA (though not the Critics Choice) but had no SAG ensemble nomination. It isn’t that it’s a must. Films without it have recently won – Shape of Water and Green Book – but there is no doubt that it always helps to have the largest actors union in your corner.

Let’s just see how it goes with our minds open, our hearts indifferent, and our eyes clear.

Here are the charts (with thanks to Marshall once again for corrections: