How exciting that we’re entering our first year with ten nomination slots on the Oscar ballot, thus expanding the race significantly. We have on paper a long list of films that are to be released this year, give or take. There are always many films that come from places unknown as the year goes forward. The various film festivals will begin after Summer. However, in looking over the list of release dates, we have a rough sketch of the movies that are coming out.
The voting and tabulation will be different this time around because choosing five and counting out a random number between 5 and 10 is different than choosing an even 10. Here is how Marshall Flores describes the tabulating:
2) These ballots will be sorted by their #1 votes into piles for each film in contention. This acts as the first round of voting.
3) Any film that receives at least 9.1% of the vote is automatically nominated for Best Picture (and if any of these films hit 11%, they qualify for the “surplus rule,” which means the next highest ranked film on these ballots will receive a fractional bonus vote)
4) The film with the fewest number of votes will be eliminated, and its ballots will be redistributed to the next highest ranked film still in contention, and acts as the next round of voting.
5) Vote redistribution from the film eliminated in the prior round takes place
6) Any film that receives at least 9.1% of the remaining votes is nominated for Best Picture (and surplus rule continues to be in effect)
7) The film with the fewest number of votes will be eliminated, and its ballots will be redistributed in the next round.
8) Steps 5-7 repeat indefinitely until all 10 Best Picture nominees have been determined.
Soggy Bottom
The Last Duel
The Many Saints of Newark
Dune
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Belfast
Tick Tick …Boom!
July 1
No Sudden Move HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures, Steven Soderbergh (director); Ed Solomon (screenplay); Don Cheadle, Benicio del Toro, David Harbour, Jon Hamm, Amy Seimetz, Brendan Fraser, Kieran Culkin, Noah Jupe, Craig Grant, Julia Fox, Ray Liotta, Bill Duke
July 30
Stillwater Focus Features / DreamWorks Pictures / Participant; Tom McCarthy (director/screenplay); Marcus Hinchey, Thomas Bidegain, Noé Debré (screenplay); Matt Damon, Camille Cottin, Abigail Breslin
August 6
Annette Amazon Studios – Leos Carax (director); Ron Mael, Russell Mael, Leos Carax (screenplay); Adam Driver, Marion Cotillard, Simon Helberg, Russell Mael
John and the Hole – IFC Films – Pascual Sisto (director); Nicolás Giacobone (screenplay); Charlie Shotwell, Jennifer Ehle, Michael C. Hall, Taissa Farmiga
August 13
Respect Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Bron Creative Liesl Tommy (director); Tracey Scott Wilson (screenplay); Jennifer Hudson, Forest Whitaker, Marlon Wayans, Audra McDonald, Marc Maron, Tituss Burgess, Saycon Sengbloh, Hailey Kilgore, Skye Dakota Turner, Tate Donovan, Mary J. Blige
Coda Apple TV+ Sian Heder (director/screenplay); Emilia Jones, Eugenio Derbez, Troy Kotsur, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo, Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin
August 20
Reminiscence HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / FilmNation Entertainment Lisa Joy (director/screenplay); Hugh Jackman, Rebecca Ferguson, Thandiwe Newton, Cliff Curtis, Marina de Tavira, Daniel Wu, Mojean Aria, Brett Cullen, Natalie Martinez, Angela Sarafyan, Nico Parker
The Card Counter Focus Features; Paul Schrader (director/screenplay); Oscar Isaac, Tye Sheridan, Tiffany Haddish, Willem Dafoe
September 17
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie Amazon Studios / 20th Century Studios / Regency Enterprises / Film4 – Jonathan Butterell (director); Tom MacRae (screenplay); Max Harwood, Sarah Lancashire, Lauren Patel, Shobna Gulati, Ralph Ineson, Adeel Akhtar, Samuel Bottomley, Sharon Horgan, Richard E. Grant
The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures – Michael Showalter (director); Abe Sylvia (screenplay); Jessica Chastain, Andrew Garfield, Cherry Jones, Vincent D’Onofrio
Blue Bayou – Focus Features / Entertainment One – Justin Chon (director/screenplay); Justin Chon, Alicia Vikander, Mark O’Brien, Linh Dan Pham, Emory Cohen
September 24
The Many Saints of Newark HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / New Line Cinema / HBO Films – Alan Taylor (director); David Chase, Lawrence Konner (screenplay); Alessandro Nivola, Leslie Odom Jr., Jon Bernthal, Corey Stoll, Michael Gandolfini, Billy Magnussen, John Magaro, Michela De Rossi, Ray Liotta, Vera Farmiga
October 1
Dune HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Legendary Pictures – Denis Villeneuve (director/screenplay); Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (screenplay); Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, David Dastmalchian, Chang Chen, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Charlotte Rampling, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem
October 15
The Last Duel Cinema – The Last Duel 20th Century Studios / Scott Free Productions / TSG Entertainment Ridley Scott (director); Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Nicole Holofcener (screenplay); Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Jodie Comer, Ben Affleck
October 22
Antlers Searchlight Pictures Scott Cooper (director/screenplay); Nick Antosca, C. Henry Chaisson (screenplay); Keri Russell, Jesse Plemons, Jeremy T. Thomas, Graham Greene, Scott Haze, Rory Cochrane, Amy Madigan
October 22
The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures / Indian Paintbrush Wes Anderson (director/screenplay); Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Léa Seydoux, Frances McDormand, Timothée Chalamet, Lyna Khoudri, Jeffrey Wright, Mathieu Amalric, Stephen Park, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson
Last Night in Soho Focus Features / Working Title Films / Film4 Edgar Wright (director/screenplay); Krysty Wilson-Cairns (screenplay); Thomasin McKenzie, Anya Taylor-Joy, Matt Smith, Diana Rigg, Rita Tushingham, Terence Stamp.
Cry Macho HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Malpaso Productions Clint Eastwood (director); Nick Schenk, N. Richard Nash (screenplay); Clint Eastwood, Eduardo Minett, Dwight Yoakam
November 5
Eternals Marvel Studios – Chloé Zhao (director/screenplay); Patrick Burleigh (screenplay); Gemma Chan, Richard Madden, Kumail Nanjiani, Lia McHugh, Brian Tyree Henry, Lauren Ridloff, Barry Keoghan, Don Lee, Gil Birmingham, Harish Patel, Kit Harington, Salma Hayek, Angelina Jolie
November 12
Belfast Focus Features – Kenneth Branagh (director/screenplay); Judi Dench, Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, Jude Hill
November 19
King Richard – HBO Max / Warner Bros. Pictures / Westbrook Studios – Reinaldo Marcus Green (director); Zach Baylin (screenplay); Will Smith, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Bernthal, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, Dylan McDermott
November 24
House of Gucci Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Scott Free Productions / Bron Creative – Ridley Scott (director); Roberto Bentivegna (screenplay); Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons, Jared Leto, Jack Huston, Reeve Carney, Salma Hayek
November 26
Soggy Bottom Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Bron Creative – Paul Thomas Anderson (director/screenplay); Cooper Hoffman, Bradley Cooper, Alana Haim, Benny Safdie
December 3
Nightmare Alley – Searchlight Pictures / TSG Entertainment – Guillermo del Toro (director/screenplay); Kim Morgan (screenplay); Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe, Toni Collette, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Rooney Mara, David Strathairn
December 10
West Side Story – 20th Century Studios / Amblin Entertainment – Steven Spielberg (director); Tony Kushner (screenplay); Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Josh Andrés Rivera, Ana Isabelle, Corey Stoll, Brian d’Arcy James, Rita Moreno
A Journal for Jordan – Columbia Pictures / Escape Artists / Bron Studios – Denzel Washington (director); Virgil Williams (screenplay); Michael B. Jordan, Chanté Adams
December 25
Cyrano – Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer / Working Title Films – Joe Wright (director); Erica Schmidt (screenplay); Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Ben Mendelsohn, Brian Tyree Henry, Kelvin Harrison Jr.
No release date yet
The Tragedy of Macbeth -A2 – Joel Coen; Frances McDormand, Denzel Washington, Brendan Gleeson
Tick Tick Boom! – Netflix – Lin-Manuel Miranda (director), Steven Levenson (screenplay), Andrew Garfield, Bradley Whitford, Vanessa Hudgens.
The Harder They Fall – Jeymes Samuel (writer+director), Boaz Yakin (writer), Idris Elba, Zazie Beetz, Delroy Lindo, LaKeith Stanfield
Don’t Look Up – Netflix – Adam McKay (writer + director) – Gina Gershon, Matthew Perry, Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Tyler Perry, Mark Rylance
Being the Ricardos – Netflix – Aaron Sorkin (writer + director) Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, JK Simmons.
Blonde – Andrew Dominik (writer + director) Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson, Adrien Brody
Spencer – Pablo Larrain (director), Steven Knight (writer) Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins.
What think you, Oscarwatchers? What would be your top ten picks?
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Isn’t the general rule that the recalculation is to the weight that would barely get it nominated? That’s why I thought it was 9.1% rather than 10% but I’m not sure
Im actually utterly shellshocked i would have though if i not mistaken?> the FIRST EVER hollywood Biopic fittingly by long absent once past drowning in oscar glory MGM studios rightfully bankrolling the film about arguably the most influential singer full stop of the 20th century (not just for Blacks)… who did game changer in music and lyrics that really punched above by those days the early form pop- culture to proclaim messages on her desires for Society but do it in a way nobody thought could be achieved before in the Post- Elvis Era…esp by a Black woman….let alone any woman…indeed…Mariah Carey, Beyonce, any musical artist of colour..esp for women can credit their success and influence to the founding ‘queen’ in Aretha Franklin..So…i actually shellshocked stunned that Sasha you do not have Aretha Franklin Biopic as the default outright far and away oscar favourite..
Now i say this taking into account maybe? reviews not as strong as the studio had hoped or pple expected? but if there to be a predetermined best picture- oscar sweep and i know loooooooooooonnng way to go in this years oscar race why the heck not one of one of the founding mothers of 20th century American-global music?
Ironically this goea against my hopes preference for ‘Dune’ long anticipated remake that still has potential to be an oscar winner…however..tbh it have to take a damn masterpiece of a film to rival the sure to be surely ??! clear front runner of ‘respect’ ..
I have alarmingly high expectations of this biopic..and i hope…that save for the giant of american- global music…and advocate through her music for racial equality…one most prominent in her generaiton in the arts and prob for all time on behalf of Blacks..beyond that American values of equality and yes.. RESPECT… but one would hope for this film to be confirmed as one most valued …powerful and unforgettable movies MAYBE POTENTIALLY of our generation..that potentially speaks to today that the films must achieve more than ….being a base level biopic..it must be far more than style as the lavish trailer suggests..and must reveal more to Aretha than just her music and inspirtation…but her trials and tribulations….the challenge for a film like this..is a Biopic has not won best picture..since if i not mistaken? ; the kings speech which was more than a biopic..it was funny and engaging and never shied away from the raw challenges of the central character and didn’t lose site of its place in promoting the pivotal historical event that was during WWII ‘the kings speech’….the upcoming RESPECT Biopic need to achieve a similar level..
In order to convince me that it EARNS eventual (likely?) best picture favouritism..and likely domination sweep i going in early..IF CRITICS LOVE IT IF the film is more than a promo- reflection study of Aretha the Artist…Aretha the symbol…got to be so much more to really resonate with audiences…given the importance of the central character and EASILY the most important Biopic since ‘; the Kings Speech’… quite possibly/ likely….this image below concerns me..over a month the trailer been advertised…and…see for yourself highlighted below:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22f161eee0fe7371ffd84ccf3b2c5e8fb10b5127e6db6950f80d1db251941763.jpg
as you can see…3million viewers in a month..compared to other film trailers and not necessarily box office blockbusters but other high quality possible oscar contender quality level films or could be considered such…this amount of views for the Aretha Frankkling biopic is just average number of views…maybe people are waiting for the critics verdict…
I would hope the critics when they review it..do not just focus on the smybolism ‘how her message speaks to today’ view poi9nt..i hope they assess it for it depth and multi-dimensional and necessary portrayal of a giant and queen of soul and music- full stop..that the only way for film critics to show maximumj R-E-S-P-EC-T for a biopic such as this.
I am very keen incredibly so to see the Dune remake and reimagining…better have a decent run time however given the depth and scope and breadth of the intergalactic/ geopolitical backdrop story- theatre of intergalactic war setting all occuring over a love/ semi biopic story of the cnetral character…i remember the opriginal Dune..frankly while it a sci- fi cult classic…it was underwhelming even for its time..but was not the filmmakers fault..truth is a film like Dune should not have been released until the technology as at the level to do full justice to what is one of the greatest sci- fi epics from the books…ever told..