Michael Patterson’s Telluride Predictions

Every year, our good friend Michael Patterson keeps tracks of movies that may or may not be going to Telluride. It is a bit of a game of cat and mouse since Telluride doesn’t release their lineup until the day before the festival. Patterson has surprisingly not been given press accreditation to the festival again this year. He does cover the festival probably better than anyone else online for my money. Anyway, he writes about this week’s potential lineup compared to last week’s:

Well, this is weird.  Normally. the first Ten bets after Toronto’s first announcement of titles causes a massive re-organization of the Ten Bets in the following post.  This year…not so much.  Last week’s ten Bets and other possibilities were:

1) Something from Mark Cousins***
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns. Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) The Power of the Dog/Campion
5) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar
6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
7) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Julia/Cohen and West
10) Spencer/Larrain

Other Possibles: Dune, Where Is Anne Frank?, Paris 13th District and The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday and Bergman Island.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking
The Storms of Jeremy Thomas
The Story of Film: The Next Generation

With the addition of information from Toronto our fifth edition of “Ten Bets” looks like this:

1) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe
2) Petite Maman/Sciamma
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Something from Mark Cousins***
5) The Power of the Dog/Campion
6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
7) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar
8) Julia/Cohen and West
9) A Hero/Farhadi
10) Spencer/Larrain

Other Possibles: Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, Where Is Anne Frank?, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday, Encounter, The Velvet Underground, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Don’t Look Up, tick, tick..BOOM, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Titaine, Pig, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking
The Storms of Jeremy Thomas
The Story of Film: The Next Generation

Paris 13th District, Bergman Island and The Eyes of Tammy Faye all drop from the “Other Possibles” list as their premiere designation for Toronto indicates that they will not have played Telluride but nary a one of the Ten Bets from last week completely disappears this week and that’s remarkably unusual.

The reason The Electrical Life of Louis Wain has shot to the top of his predictions is that TIFF says “Canadian Premiere.” That means it will be shown before Toronto. That means either Venice or Telluride.

The Tragedy of MacBeth is going to open the New York Film Festival so that means it won’t be going to Telluride, alas.

The “other possibles” he posts are where most of the Oscar heat is, give or take a Power of the Dog. Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Tick, Tick …BOOM, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, etc.

Here are the Toronto Films announced, and previously announced, from Deadline:

GALA PRESENTATIONS
(*previously announced)

*Belfast
Kenneth Branagh | United Kingdom
World Premiere

Clifford the Big Red Dog
Walt Becker | USA/United Kingdom/Canada
World Premiere

Opening Night Film
Dear Evan Hansen
Stephen Chbosky | USA
World Premiere

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Will Sharpe | United Kingdom
Canadian Premiere

The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Michael Showalter | USA
World Premiere

*Jagged
Alison Klayman | USA
World Premiere

*Last Night in Soho
Edgar Wright | United Kingdom
North American Premiere

*The Mad Women’s Ball (Le Bal des folles) Mélanie
Laurent | France
World Premiere

*Night Raiders
Danis Goulet | Canada/New Zealand
North American Premiere

Closing Night Film
One Second
Zhang Yimou | China
North American Premiere

The Survivor
Barry Levinson | USA/Canada/Hungary
World Premiere

SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS
(*previously announced)

Ali & Ava
Clio Barnard | United Kingdom
North American Premiere

All My Puny Sorrows
Michael McGowan | Canada
World Premiere

*Benediction
Terence Davies | United Kingdom
World Premiere

Bergman Island
Mia Hansen-Løve | France
International Premiere

*Charlotte
Eric Warin, Tahir Rana | Canada/France/Belgium
World Premiere

*Dionne Warwick: Don’t Make Me Over
Dave Wooley, David Heilbroner | USA
World Premiere

Drive My Car
Ryusuke Hamaguchi | Japan
North American Premiere

Encounter
Michael Pearce | United Kingdom/USA
International Premiere

*The Guilty
Antoine Fuqua | USA
World Premiere

I’m Your Man
Maria Schrader | Germany
North American Premiere

Inexorable
Fabrice du Welz | Belgium/France
International Premiere

*Lakewood
Phillip Noyce | Canada
World Premiere

The Middle Man
Bent Hamer | Norway/Canada/Germany/Denmark
World Premiere

Official Competition (Competencia Oficial)
Mariano Cohn, Gastón Duprat | Spain/Argentina
North American Premiere

Paris, 13th District (Les Olympiades)
Jacques Audiard | France
North American Premiere

*Petite Maman
Céline Sciamma | France
Canadian Premiere

*The Starling
Theodore Melfi | USA
World Premiere

The Story of My Wife
Ildikó Enyedi | Hungary/Germany/Italy/France
North American Premiere

Three Floors (Tre Piani)
Nanni Moretti | Italy/France
North American Premiere

Violet
Justine Bateman | USA
International Premiere

The Worst Person In The World (Verdens Verste Menneske)
Joachim Trier | Norway/France/Sweden/Denmark
North American Premiere