Predictions Friday – Best Actor and Best Picture

Looking back on last year, despite everything, had we been thinking with a clearer head it would have been more obvious that Anthony Hopkins, coming in with a Best Picture prediction, would beat Chadwick Boseman, who was coming in without one. Last year also broke with the recent trend of pairing Best Actor with Best Picture. The actors don’t always win but they are almost nominated in a film also nominated for Best Picture in the era of the expanded ballot:

2020 – Anthony Hopkins, The Father
2019 – Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
2018 – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2017 – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2016 – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, Dalas Buyers Club
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2011 – Jean DuJardin, The Artist
2010 – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2009 – Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Jeff Bridges was overdue and he worked the campaign hard that year. Chadwick Boseman would have been only the second actor to win without a corresponding Best Picture nomination since 2009. It makes sense, though, that if enough people liked a movie to put it at the top of their ballot, and if that movie starred an actor or actress, then they would like that performance better than the one that didn’t land high on the ballot for Best Picture.

A general rule of thumb, I think, is to always default to Best Actor when predicting Best Picture. But let’s see how that lines up in the era of the expanded ballot:

2009
The Hurt Locker – Best Actor nominee
Avatar – male protag
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
Inglourious Basterds – male protag
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man – male protag
Up – male protag
Up in the Air – Best Actor nominee

2010
The King’s Speech – Best Actor winner
127 Hours – Best Actor nominee
Black Swan
The Fighter – male protag
Inception – male protag
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network – Best Actor nominee
Toy Story 3
True Grit – Best Actor nominee
Winter’s Bone

2011
The Artist – Best Actor winner
The Descendants – Best Actor nominee
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close-male protag
The Help
Hugo-male protag
Midnight in Paris-male protag
Moneyball-Best Actor nominee
The Tree of Life
War Horse-male protag

2012
Argo-male protag
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained-male protag
Life of Pi-male protag
Lincoln-Best Actor winner
Les Misérables-Best Actor nominee
Silver Linings Playbook-Best Actor nominee
Zero Dark Thirty

2013
12 Years a Slave-Best Actor nominee
American Hustle-Best Actor nominee
Captain Phillips-male protag
Dallas Buyers Club-Best Actor winner
Gravity
Her-male protag
Nebraska-Best Actor nominee
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street-Best Actor nominee

2014
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)-Best Actor nominee
American Sniper-Best Actor nominee
Boyhood-male protag
The Grand Budapest Hotel-male protag
The Imitation Game-Best Actor nominee
Selma
The Theory of Everything-Best Actor winner
Whiplash-male protag

2015
Spotlight
The Big Short-male protag
Bridge of Spies-male protag
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian-Best Actor nominee
The Revenant-Best Actor winner
Room

2016
Moonlight-male protag
Arrival
Fences-Best Actor nominee
Hacksaw Ridge-Best Actor nominee
Hell or High Water-male protag
Hidden Figures
La La Land––Best Actor nominee
Lion-male protag
Manchester by the Sea-Best Actor winner

2017
The Shape of Water
Call Me by Your Name––Best Actor nominee
Darkest Hour-Best Actor winner
Dunkirk-male protag
Get Out–Best Actor nominee
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread–Best Actor nominee
The Post–male protag
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2018
Green Book–Best Actor nominee
Black Panther–male protag
BlacKkKlansman–Best Actor nominee
Bohemian Rhapsody-Best Actor winner
The Favourite
Roma
A Star Is Born-male protag
Vice-male protag

2019
Parasite-male protag
1917–male protag
Ford v Ferrari–male protag
The Irishman–male protag
Jojo Rabbit–male protag
Joker-Best Actor winner
Little Women
Marriage Story–Best Actor nominee
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood–Best Actor nominee

2020
Nomadland
The Father-Best Actor winner
Judas and the Black Messiah–male protag
Mank–Best Actor nominee
Minari–Best Actor nominee
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal–Best Actor nominee
The Trial of the Chicago 7–male protag

So it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s going on here. While it’s possible things might change – what I’ve sort of figured out over time isn’t so much that we live in crippling patriarchy so much as that male characters are the default. They are less likely to be hit with harsh criticism about whether or not they check off all the boxes of what is required today to escape Twitter’s wrath. Also, men and women both like watching men. It isn’t always the case that men like watching women, especially if the subject matter is what I call a “kick in the balls” movie. That might satisfy Twitter but who wants to really sit down and watch that for fun? Not many male people.

This is also, incidentally, why WHITE MEN specifically often get a pass. It seems like every other group received outsized criticism for what they’re trying to do where white guy things get an immediate pass because there isn’t anything else you can say about them except they’re white guys. That gives them a wide berth as to what kinds of stories and characters they can portray.

The hierarchy of men in American culture is a thing. And it’s probably not going away no matter how many times someone is canceled on Twitter. It seems to serve some sort of purpose that resonates. Either way, the bottom line is this: when looking at Best Picture you have to look at Best Actor. The closer to a Best Actor nomination the film gets the more likely it is to be nominated for Best Picture.

I do think Erik Anderson over at Awardswatch is on the right track in circling Denzel Washington for potentially winning his third Oscar for this role. He almost won (and should have, I think) for Fences. He’s won two Oscars – one for lead (Training Day) and the other for supporting (Glory). It is hard to imagine this performance in this film, even sight unseen, not delivering him his third Oscar. But yeah, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Here are Erik’s ranked Best Actor predictions:

1. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) ↔
2. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑
3. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↑
4. Christian Bale – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios) ↓
5. Adam Driver – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
6. Clifton Collins, Jr. – Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
7. Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
8. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UA) ↓
9. Mahershala Ali – Swan Song (Apple TV+) ↓
10. Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleecker Street)

I think he approaches these smartly, taking certain factors into consideration, like the studio involved, the popularity of the star, and the subject matter. Films that have slightly dampened buzz before they’ve even been seen don’t really show up here. But remember, none of these have been seen, and plenty more out there that also could factor in, depending on how the overall film does.

There is still no reason to think that Best Actor still doesn’t drive the Best Picture race. So, always — with a few exceptions — think Best Picture when you think Best Actor.

I look at that list above and I have no idea whether these films will be good or not. But I can’t argue with Erik’s list here. I think he has taken into consideration the power of Best Picture, minus the lightning in a bottle that none of us can see from here.

Here is Erik’s “Other Contenders” list:

Other contenders:
Antonio Banderas – Official Competition (Sony Pictures Classics)
Timothée Chalamet – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
Adam Driver – Annette (Amazon)
Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
Ralph Fiennes – The Forgiven (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Giménez Cacho – Memoria (Neon)
Cooper Hoffman – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM/UA)
Amir Jadidi – A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan (Sony Pictures)
Jonathan Majors – The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (A24)
Mohsen Tanabandeh – A Hero (Amazon Studios)

Now, for the fun of it, let’s look at Erik’s Best Picture predictions.

These are the predictions as of May, not updated for June, so no doubt some things have changed since but:

1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – Bradley Cooper BA
2. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – Ansel Elgort BA
3. Dune (Warner Bros) – Timothee Chalamet BA
4. House of Gucci (MGM) Adam Driver – BA
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) – Denzel Washington BA
6. Belfast (Focus Features) – Jamie Dornan – BA
7. Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios) Christian Bale BA
8. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures) Owen Wilson?
9. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM) – Bradley Cooper BA
10. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) — Benedict Cumberbatch BA

Erik might change his Best Picture list for June but for now, here are the films that are strong on Best Actor but not Best Picture:

King Richard
Jockey
Cyrano
Swan Song
Mass

The others are in for Best Picture, give or take.

So right away we see Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom v. Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley. Apparently, Cooper could be supporting in Soggy Bottom — which would give him the chance for a double nomination. But IF he is the lead, and considering that Paul Thomas Anderson often directs bravura male leads, as opposed to Guillermo Del Toro who doesn’t usually focus on a singular male lead – and given the genre of Nightmare Alley, I am going to make the grand assumption that there will be much more digging down deep aka “scenery-chewing” in Soggy Bottom. Thus, given the status of PTA, the subject matter, etc. I’d probably prioritize Cooper in Soggy Bottom and roll the dice for a BP/BA nomination combo platter.

But it might be moot, since he might be the big name on the film where the lead is Cooper Hoffman, the son of the late Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

The second thing I see right off is that King Richard is not figured in for Best Picture. If that is getting a Best Actor nomination, I would imagine it is also getting a Best Picture nomination.

He also doesn’t have a few films I think might be players, like In the Heights or the Many Saints of Newark, the Last Duel, Tick Tick BOOM

For a male performance to land in the nominations but the movie not make it in, I would imagine you’re looking at something that features a showcase performance in a film that would not otherwise be accessible.

In general, though, when predicting this category I generally think about the Best Picture race. So that means I would probably do something like this: