Everything You Need to Know About the Fall Festivals and the Oscar Race

The time is closing in on the festival season, which is really where the Oscar race for Best Picture is more or less determined. This hasn’t always been true. It started being true around the time the Academy pushed its date back by one month, which shifted Oscar season away from the traditional Christmas release of “Oscar movies.” Now, no movie that doesn’t land, or is seen, before October hasn’t really been able to build enough momentum to win.

The reason for this is also due to the preferential ballot implemented when they expanded the race from an even 5. This year, there will be an even 10. But there will still be a preferential ballot. In the past, from, say, 1943 on, the Best Picture win was usually a matter of excitement, buzz, and momentum. That can still drive a winner through the season, and even at the last minute as it did with Parasite in 2019, but in general the Best Picture winner tends to be the movie that has been seen, reviewed, weathered whatever storms it had coming its way – survived them — and remains well thought of in people’s minds.

I think of it like the “girl next door” concept. That is, you might wish for excitement, meeting your true love at first site and the momentum of that passion carries you through to a midnight wedding in Vegas. The girl next door is someone you know but your esteem for them grows after your experiences with other women. You can substitute any gender you like here but the point is, a Best Picture winner now, more often than not, tends to be the one right in front of your face the whole time.

But the old way meant publicists and strategists had to keep the film fresh and exciting in the eyes of voters. It mattered how a movie opened. It mattered how many people watched the movie. It mattered how much money it made. None of that really matters anymore. The race is decided by tastemakers, critics, bloggers, and the industry.

Two films directed by women came out of Sundance (CODA and Passing) that are likely to be in the mix where the Oscars are concerned. The Cannes Film Fest introduced Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. Other movies have been seen outside the circuit, like In the Heights. Respect opens today.

AFI – November 10 – 14

Venice September 1-11

Oscarwatch:
Ridley Scott is highlighted with a tribute and an “out of competition” screening of The Last Duel

Movies that seem like they could be Oscar contenders are:
The Almodovar — God of cinema Pedro Almodovar is screening Parallel Mothers (Madres Paralelas) (Penelope Cruz)
The Amirpour – Ana Lily Amirpour’s Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon (Jeon Jong-seo)
The Campion – Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch)
The Franco – Michel Franko’s Sundown (Tim Roth)
The Gyllenhaal – Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman)
The Larrain – Pablo Larrain’s Spencer (Kristen Stewart)
The Schrader – Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter (Oscar Isaac)

Out of Competition:
The Scott – Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel (Jodie Comer, Matt Damon)
The Wright – Last Night in Soho (Anya Taylor-Joy)
The Villeneuve – Denis Villeneuve’s Dune (Timothee Chalamet)
The Ponciroli – Potsy Ponciroli’s Old Henry (Tim Blake Nelson, Stephen Dorff)

You can see the full competition lineup here.

Telluride September 2-6

We don’t really get the full lineup until the day before the fest, but Michael Patterson lists his predictions week by week of what might show up. And this week he lists these films:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Spencer/Larrain

6) Something from Mark Cousins***

7) A Hero/Farhadi

8) C’mon, C’mon/Mills

9) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

11) Julia/Cohen and West

12) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

13/ Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

14) Cyrano/Wright

15) Il Buco/Frammartino

But we will keep updating this as we go along. We don’t really know what will show up.

Toronto September 9 – 18

GALA PRESENTATIONS
(*previously announced)

*Belfast Kenneth Branagh | United Kingdom | World Premiere

Clifford the Big Red Dog Walt Becker | USA/United Kingdom/Canada ~~World Premiere~~

You can view the full lineup with more information on each movie here.

New York September 24-October 10

Opening Night
The Tragedy of Macbeth | Dir. Joel Coen

Centerpiece
The Power of the Dog | Dir. Jane Campion

AFI Fest – November 10-14

Opening Night
Tick … Tick … Boom – Dir. Lin-Manuel Miranda

At this moment, we don’t know what COVID will do to any of these festivals. For the moment, Venice, Telluride and Toronto are definitely on. Toronto, New York and AFI will have some of the festival virtual. Telluride and Venice are mere weeks away. And away we go.

We do keep our minds open about any films that might pop during any of these festivals. There is too much policing, in my opinion, of the films. A handful of films are chosen as frontrunners early on that becomes hard to shake up. But there are just too many unknown variables at the moment to figure out what other films that will screen outside of the festival circuit to shake up the race. We will have to wait and see.