Team AD TV’s 2021 Drama Emmy Predictions

The 2021 Primetime Emmy Awards Drama races are a bit more divided amongst Team AD TV than the Comedy races. Everyone has the sense that, yes, Netflix will finally take home a Drama Series trophy with its Diana-infused fourth season of The Crown. People haven’t stopped talking about it all year, and even casual watchers of the first three seasons could not stop watching Season Four.

But the division comes with the question, “Just how many awards will it win?”

If you consider last weekend’s Creative Arts Awards, then you’ll notice that The Crown won the most awards against the most nominations it has received in a single year. That includes the bizarre (though not unexpected) win for Claire Foy in the Guest Actress in a Drama Series race. It also includes a win for Casting in a Drama Series, an award that has less correlation with the ultimate Drama Series winner than the Comedy or Limited Series casting awards. However, there’s a break in the armor. For the first time in its four seasons, The Crown lost Period Costumes to The Queen’s Gambit.

Is that a problem? Or is The Queen’s Gambit just THAT strong?

What I’m trying to say is that the loss in a category it has reliably carried for three seasons could point to a lack of overall enthusiasm for the series. Enthusiasm that would carry it to multiple acting wins. We all know it’s going to win Drama Series. If not The Crown, then what?

At one point, we might have said The Handmaid’s Tale‘s fourth season would return the series to Emmy glory. However, it shockingly went home completely empty-handed at the Creative Arts — something it has never done.

Truly nipping at The Crown‘s heels, I suspect, is the final season of FX’s Pose. While I don’t think that anything can beat The Crown, Pose is a very serious threat to take home both Lead Actor and Actress, one of which would be a truly special and historic Emmy moment (Mj Rodriguez would become the first trans actor to win an Emmy). Billy Porter could repeat his Season One win as Best Actor as well.

These two races have me all tied up in knots. All season long, I’ve been saying that if the voting members of the Television Academy voted for Emma Corrin as Diana then they were likely to vote for Josh O’Connor as Charles given how closely they’re aligned in the Big Moments of Season Four. But, does sympathy for Diana drive Corrin to more votes, and does apathy (or even hatred) for Charles impact O’Connor? Or does the pairing hold true for Pose? Ultimately, I split my prediction with the Television Academy unable to resist going the historic route with Mj Rodriguez, who is very great in the series. But others in Team AD TV have gone in the other direction: predicting Billy Porter to repeat with Emma Corrin winning. That could easily happen as well.

At any rate, take a look at what Team AD TV predicts in the Drama races below. Check back with us tomorrow for our take on Limited Series!