The State of the Race: Frontrunners and Their Challengers

We’re rounding the bend in the Oscar race. Even though it is still just October and voting doesn’t start until the end of January, since 2004 we have not had a year where the Best Picture contender was not seen by October. The reason for this, at least in the past, was that the Academy pushed the date of the Oscars up by one month in 2003. That basically pushed the whole thing up by one month.

There wasn’t really time for the December releases, the traditional method of dumping Oscar movies in the pre-2003 era, to gather up a strong enough consensus to win. Add to that the preferential ballot doesn’t often allow for last-minute surges, even if we did see one of those, more or less, a couple of years ago with Parasite. But we don’t know if Parasite had dropped in December, before anyone had seen it, whether it could have swept up as many Oscars in the final act. Parasite’s popularity was a slow burn. It was earmarked to win International Feature, but as people watched it and discussed it (and especially after its standing ovation at the SAG Awards), its buzz just kept picking up steam. But it was actually seen first in Cannes, when it won the Palme d’Or. It ran the festival circuit, picking up fans along the way. By the end, it didn’t take much to get the last remaining voters to see it and feel the enthusiasm.

But a film dropped in November or December has a very hard time gathering a necessary consensus. We still have to see a few key films, like Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Tick Tick Boom, and maybe Eternals, but we’ve seen more movies by now than we’re waiting for.

It might be a good time to check in on the frontrunners and their challengers. So let’s do this, shall we?

First, these aren’t predictions. This is a rough assessment of what many pundits are thinking, along with my own general view of how things have gone so far and how they might go.

We’re looking for potential winners here, not nominees. That’s a different conversation.

Best Picture

Frontrunners:

Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

These three, at least right now, seem to have the heat heading into the season. They are well-reviewed, highly praised, and male-driven — which is often key to Best Picture (though not always, as in last year’s example). Belfast and King Richard have the benefit of being uplifting movies about good people doing good things. The Power of the Dog is much more complex, its power being driven by how good it is but also by how much good will there is for the legend that is Jane Campion. Both Belfast and King Richard have their additional factors that make them strong. Kenneth Branagh is enjoying a bit of a comeback, after being hailed once a very long time ago as a wunderkind, but whose career has hit more than a few bumps in the road. King Richard is not just directed by a black director — which is extremely rare for a Best Picture frontrunner: just two have ever won directed by black directors, and only one of these, Moonlight, was directed by a black American director — but more than that, it is about the legendary Williams sisters, Serena and Venus, and goodwill for them will drive goodwill for this movie.

What you want with Best Picture in the era of the preferential ballot is the movie that lands at the top of most ballots, whether it lands at 1 or 2 or 3. Last year, for instance, in the various polls we did, Nomadland kept landing near the top. So even if it wasn’t a favorite number one film, people felt good about it and wanted it to do well, so they pushed it to the top anyway. That is what you need to win in this era. Parasite would have hit high on most ballots. When it came to Green Book vs. Roma, Green Book had an advantage by being both the more likable of the two but also it gained momentum the more it was attacked.

If your movie isn’t going to be a 2 or a 3, it better win on the first round, meaning it has the majority of the votes heading in. I usually see this as a movie that wins the PGA/DGA and SAG ensemble will win on the first round heading into the Oscars. Those that have in the era of the preferential ballot would be:

The King’s Speech
Argo
Birdman

I also think there’s a good chance The Hurt Locker won on the first round, maybe Parasite. But the others did well, to my mind, because they picked up second and third place votes too.

Other potential nominees:

CODA
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Spencer
Mass

Other challengers to Best Picture for the win would be the unseen:

Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
Tick Tick Boom

Ask yourself — what can win the Producers Guild on a preferential ballot with ten nominees?

Ask yourself — what can win the Golden Globes with five nominees?

Ask yourself — who wins DGA and SAG ensemble?

Ask yourself — which films will head in with Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Acting nominations (can win without the latter two, but always preferable)?

Best Actor

Frontrunners:

Will Smith, King Richard — nominated twice for Best Actor but never won
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano — never been nominated
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog — nominated once for Best Actor in a Best Picture nominee
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth — nominated six times for lead, twice in supporting, won once in each category

Potential challengers:

Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley — nominated for lead three times, supporting once
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up — nominated five times for lead and won once, nominated once for supporting
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom — nominated once in lead

Best Actress

Frontrunners:

Kristen Stewart, Spencer — never nominated
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye — twice nominated: once in lead, once in supporting
Jennifer Hudson, Respect — won for Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers — won once in supporting, nominated twice in supporting, once in lead

Other nominees might be:

Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth — three wins for lead, three nominations for supporting
Catriona Balfe, Belfast — never nominated
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel — never nominated
Olivia Colman, Lost Daughter — won in lead, also nominated in supporting
Tessa Thompson, Passing — never nominated

Still waiting to see:

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci — nominated once in lead
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley — won lead, won supporting, nominated four times for lead, three times for supporting
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story — never nominated

Best Director

Frontrunners:

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Denis Villenueve, Dune

Other potential nominees:

Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Joe Wright, Cyrano

Not yet seen:

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci or The Last Duel

Supporting Actress

Frontrunners:

Ann Dowd, Mass — never nominated
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog — never nominated
Aunjenue Ellis, King Richard — never nominated
Judi Dench, Belfast — nominated five times for lead, twice supporting, won once in supporting
Marlee Matlin, CODA — won once for lead

Other potential nominees:

Ruth Negga, Passing — nominated once for lead
Olga Merediz, In the Heights — never nominated

Unseen:

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story — never nominated
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley — twice nominated, once lead, once supporting

Supporting Actor

Frontrunners:

Richard Jenkins, The Humans — twice nominated, once in lead and once in supporting
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar — never nominated for acting
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog — never nominated
Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog — never nominated

Unseen:

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza — nominated three times for lead, once for supporting
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley — nominated once for lead, three times for supporting
Jared Leto, House of Gucci — won once in supporting

Screenplay

For Screenplay, we look for the Best Picture frontrunners first, unless there is a star writer in the mix. Or a consolation prize of sorts (2nd or 3rd place win). So that means:

Frontrunners for Screenplay

Original:

Belfast
King Richard

Challengers/Unseen:

Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up

Other potential nominees:

C’mon, C’mon
Mass
A Hero
Parallel Mothers

Adapted:

The Power of the Dog

Challengers:

CODA
The Humans
Cyrano
The Lost Daughter

Unseen:

Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci

It’s not a perfect system, just a rough sketch. Make of it what you will.