It’s a shame that the American public still has to wait a whole week for No Time to Die to open when so many have already seen it and discussed it. If all goes well, James Bond could revive the box office. That depends on hesitant Blue Staters actually overcoming their movie theater phobia and going to the movies. Otherwise, they have to wait 45 days for HBO Max to drop the title. The survival of movies and movie theaters depends on who is willing to buy a ticket prior to that streaming drop date. Those are likely going to be Red Staters — the kinds who are packed into venues to watch sports and who are also looked upon with great disdain by the Left. It’s probably time to bridge that gap if we want movies to survive.
I’ll never forget the year that American Sniper was nominated for Best Picture. I remember both how irritated so many were in Oscar circle that it happened, but also how excited people “out there in the world” were that it was. I remember so many getting ready to watch that show in hopes that American Sniper actually won Best Picture. So many tuned in that night thinking it might. Can you imagine THAT innocent of a time?
But of course, American Sniper didn’t win. Birdman, which massaged the angst of actors being replaced by superhero movies, did. American Sniper didn’t come close to winning, but the many fans who watched the show didn’t know that. They thought it was actually a contest. It also got hit with the usual upset and controversy, as you might imagine. It is going to be the goal of Hollywood, and those who cover it, to learn how to grim up and learn the art of not caring what Twitter thinks, what people who cover Twitter think. Otherwise, nothing is going to survive this moment except propaganda that follows all of the rules. That ain’t entertainment. And it certainly ain’t art.
That American Sniper could be on the same Best Picture lineup as Birdman and Boyhood is astonishing, especially looking back at it now. But that is really closer to what it SHOULD look like. Any movie that made that kind of money should automatically be considered a Best Picture contender now, regardless if Rotten Tomatoes gives it a high score or not. We’re talking survival here.
It might sound a little funny to imagine how No Time to Die could help the Oscars. But if it makes lots of money, if it really does bring people back to theaters, if it really is the movie that revives our film loving community — why the hell not?
The Academy has a choice at this point: head to streaming and exist in an insulated, isolated bubble, or try to once again reach the whole country, even the half it openly disdains. But the Oscars are necessary, even still, or they certainly could be. This country, this world is a much duller place without movies and movie theatersm and the best way to keep them all thriving is to keep the awards that celebrate them thriving.
Anne Thompson writes a good piece about the need for the Oscars. She touches on the delicate line they will have to walk going forward to both hold onto their prestige and their “elite” status without alienating most in this country who see them as a “let them eat cake” kind of industry.
I hope James Bond breaks the seal and is that movie that finally brings people back in droves to movie theaters. They do bleach them, after all, and have taken precautions, after all. If Daniel Craig as James Bond can’t do it, no one can.
No Time to Die should be able to entertain across all demographics, make a lot of money, and land in the lineup for Best Picture at the Producers Guild. That is just one step away from the Oscars’ Best Picture lineup. Both will have an even ten nominees. But will it do that? No one I know would ever predict that, even if just by predicting it they can make it a reality. It would be nice if the ten Best Picture candidates weren’t just art-house fare but rather bigger and broader and yes, more popular.
The closest a modern James Bond movie ever got to the Oscars was Skyfall. It did win Best British Film at the BAFTAs and was nominated for five Oscars. I remember back in 2012 I thought my Oscar brethren were crazy to think it would ever land in Best Picture. But that was then. This is now. The Oscars are on life support. At least, that is what you see if you look at the bigger picture.
In the bigger picture, the Oscars are becoming something most people outside the bubble of the insular Oscar world thinks little about or cares little about. One James Bond movie surely can’t fix that. But it’s moving in the right direction to think that it might. The Oscars can’t continue to be a pantheon for critics and Film Twitter awards, or there is no point to them. The critics have their own awards and their own entire industry and that involves mostly seeing movies for free. Economics do not enter the picture. Well, the general public does have to buy tickets to see movies. They should be included in what defines Best Picture of the Year.
Trust me when I tell you I know how the game is played. I practically invented it. I know that I can’t go over to Gold Derby and put down my predictions to include No Time to Die. I know that the game of Oscar predicting has become the game of Oscar determining. We herd them into a room and, thus, pre-select them for Oscar voters, finding their exact tastes and delivering them what they require. There is something very WALL-E about all of it. It would be fine if it was working — but it isn’t working.
Even if No Time to Die is among the ten nominees, along with, say, other potentially popular films like Dune or King Richard or even Belfast — all crowdpleasers and universal in their themes — that doesn’t guarantee people will watch the Oscars to boost the ratings out of the embarrassment territory. If the Oscars are like the Tonys and the Emmys — looking more like the Democratic National Convention and less like a celebration that invites everyone in, regardless of politics — well, prepare yourselves for more bad news.
So why should we care about the ratings? Why should we care about the Oscars? Isn’t it just Hollywood patting itself on the back? Sure, of course. It is that even more so now than it ever has been. It is difficult to get this message out because if you spend your time reading the same people who feed off of Twitter, who all watch the same movies FOR FREE, you forget what movies are meant to do for the American people, what they have always done. Only part of that is about prestige and art. Part of that also has to be reaching the very people who pay to see the movies.
There is something entirely backward about what kinds of films and television shows win awards. In harsh times, it was exactly the opposite. During the Depression, the poor would flock to the movies to see how the other half lived — but that other half was sophisticated and wealthy. Think: The Purple Rose of Cairo.
Now, the whole thing (at least where the Oscars are concerned) has flipped. While the masses flock to Instagram to luxuriate in the massive and visible wealth of, say, the Kardashian empire, movies and TV seem to want to show only what they think of as “real life.” The upper class is being given a glimpse into a part of existence they are very much cut off from. On top of which, they are one tragic bummer after another, to feed the enduring need of people on the Left to feel as though they are doing good in the world, doing good by watching movies about suffering or poverty or oppression. That serves their need to feel useful. When all of your needs are met, the only suffering you do is ideological. But for most who pay money to go to the movies it’s the opposite: they are seeking relief from the world they struggle through every day. Their struggles tend to be more along the lines of not being able to afford their rent, not having a job, paying down their debt, a bummer boss. Movies offer relief from that. Some movies can. Some movies have.
For me personally, movies and movie theaters were my way of escaping what was a difficult and chaotic upbringing. We were welfare kids who could not afford new clothes or restaurants or anything like that. But we could afford movie theaters. That gave me the chance to live vicariously through stories that took me to places and surrounded me with people and ideas that really did rescue me from daily life. THAT is the best thing movies can do. Inspiring film critics to write rave reviews? Winning the approval of the elite class in the industry? These things might matter. But what could possibly matter more than knowing you are giving people a world to escape into for a little bit of pleasure, a little bit of relief.
James Bond will do that for a great many, even with its somber goodbye to iconic Daniel Craig. Here it is — our big movie to hopefully bring people back to theaters and remind us what going to the movies is all about. BRING. IT. ON.
I can’t make the argument that No Time to Die is going to be one of the best films of the year. Then you have to define what that means. Whose best? The critics? The bloggers? The ticket buyers? It is my hope that the Oscars begin to think bigger and more broadly, to come out from inside the bunker and remember who it is you make movies for in the first place. A hint: it isn’t yourselves.
Here we go. Anne Thompson says, how do you build Best Picture? Branch by branch. No Time to Die will get more than a few tech nominations — sound, editing, visual effects — but can it get anything else? Not sure. But I’m going to include it here for the hell of it.
Best Picture
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Licorice Pizza
Dune
CODA
No Time to Die
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Joel Coen, Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza, George Clooney, The Tender Bar
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alts: Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth, Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Alts. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Judi Dench, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Richard Jenkins, Humans
Alt. Andrew Garfield, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Lost Daughter
Dune
West Side Story
Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
C’mon C’mon
Editing
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Tragedy of Macbeth
Sound
West Side Story
Dune
In the Heights
No Time to Die
Cyrano
Costumes
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Cyrano
House of Gucci
Production Design
Nightmare Alley
Dune
West Side Story
Belfast
Finch
Visual Effects
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Finch
Eternals
Maybe it isn’t No Time to Die that will accomplish the impossible. Maybe it’s another movie. But maybe it’s time to start rethinking how we think about the Oscar race.