Predictions Friday: Heading Into the Heat of Critics Season

As we head out of October and into November, we’ll be entering the “critics phase” of the awards race. This will be mixed up with the industry awards starting in December, and then January will be the final month heading into Oscar voting. We’re still three months away from that, but what happens between now and then will decide what the consensus picks are.

AwardsWatch keeps a calendar, and November/December looks like this:

NOVEMBER 2021
3rd – British Independent Film Awards Nominations (BIFA)
9th – European Film Awards Nominations (EFA)
14th – Critics Choice Documentary Awards (CCA)
15th – Independent Documentary Association Nominations (IDA)
17th – Hollywood Music in Media Awards (HMMA)
29th – Gotham Awards
30th – National Board of Review Awards (NBR)

DECEMBER 2021
2nd – Hollywood Critics Association Nominations (HCA)
3rd – New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCC)
5th – British Independent Film Awards (BIFA)
9th – Screen Actors Guild Nomination Voting Begins (SAG)
10th – Oscar Shortlists Voting Begins 9am PT (AMPAS)
10th – Producers Guild of America Documentary Nominations (PGA)
11th – European Film Awards (EFA)
12th – Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (LAFCA)
13th – Critics Choice Awards Nominations (CCA)
13th – Golden Globe Awards Nominations (HFPA)
14th – Film Independent Spirit Awards Nominations
15th – Oscar Shortlists Voting Ends 5pm PT (AMPAS)
21st – Annie Awards Nominations
21st – Oscar Shortlists Announcement (AMPAS)

The critics, like the Golden Globes, can help but they can’t really hurt. The only way they can hurt is if they love a movie TOO much. For example, the La La Land wins at the Globes back in 2016 probably set that film up for a backlash, or at least helped the backlash, since it became the frontrunner vs. the underdog, which became Moonlight.

Years like last year are rare, where one film dominates the entire season and no other movie even has the remotest of chances to challenge it. But there have been other years like that, of course — Slumdog Millionaire was one of those years. The Artist was the one of those years. Usually, the critics will more or less align, as they did last year with Nomadland. But I don’t think this year is going to be a year like that, partly because I think that the Oscars (I hope anyway) diverge a wee bit more from the critics as a survival move. The more like the critics they are, the more insular and elitist they are, and the less the public is going to care about them.

Belfast and King Richard appear to be the two strongest heading into the race, and neither will be (I don’t think) darlings of the critics. They will certainly hit big with the more populist Critics Choice and the National Board of Review awards, along with the Golden Globes. But New York, Los Angeles, Boston and the National Society, etc., they won’t be living too much in the same house as the others. I think they prefer it that way, even if they spend a lot of their time monitoring and curating the Oscars. They seem to have a love/hate relationship with the Oscars. They want them to mirror their choices, as most people do, but they also don’t want to sacrifice their own tastes in order to match them.

Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is, I think, poised to do really well with critics. It’s possible that her Best Director winning streak could start with these awards. What’s not clear is whether the DGA will also pick the film or if they will go with something more mainstream like Belfast (probably) or King Richard (maybe).

Ridley Scott will have to be paid some kind of tribute somewhere. If I know the critics they aren’t going to touch The Last Duel. It is too mainstream for them. They might go for Gaga in House of Gucci, depending on whether the film is actually good or not. I do think voters will have to figure out what to do with a director who turns in two great movies (assuming that House of Gucci is great as expected). While I think the industry will be more Ridley-friendly than the critics, they will likely build a consensus around one or the other and probably not both, although I guess you never know. It would be kind of funny if 20 or so years after Gladiator beat Steven Soderbergh’s two movies for Best Picture that Ridley Scott could come back with two movies himself.

The fact is that the critics aren’t the industry. No group reaches the membership levels of the Oscars (9,000+) except the larger industry groups: DGA (18,000+), PGA (7,000+), and SAG (115,000+). BAFTAs are only going to count the same way as the Gothams will count because they’re using a jury and not their entire membership to select the nominees for acting and directing. Helpful, but not exactly a key influencer.

At this moment, it’s hard to know what direction the critics awards will head in, or what will be their main motivations. Will they do what they did last year, steer clear of awarding any white male? Or will they loosen up a bit on that. Will they be prioritizing women as they did last year? Will their awards be equitable? I’m guessing it’s a yes to both of these.

Figuring out which performances will do well with critics is also tricky. While I sort of see Kristen Stewart doing really well, I could also see Maggie Gyllenhaal’s film The Lost Daughter doing really well with critics, and ultimately pushing Olivia Colman to a few wins.

What to watch for are how our frontrunners do with critics, if they register at all. That will only help them gain momentum as we head through the season. We also haven’t seen all of the films and performances that are going to be in the race, so it’s important to hold some space for those. They skipped the festival circuit, which could be a sign that they won’t be exactly critic friendly.

I don’t really sense much of a change from last week, but let’s go through them anyway. My own guidelines for myself are:

1. The Globes might give The Last Duel and In the Heights a boost.
2. The Oscars overall are going to go “bigger” and not “smaller.”
3. In play is still: saving the industry, preserving the past, diversity, equity and inclusion.

Best Picture
Seen:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Dune
In the Heights

Not seen:
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
House of Gucci
Alts: Cyrano, CODA

Best Actress potentials for BP: Spencer, Respect, the Lost Daughter

Best Director
Seen:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Reinado Marcus Green, King Richard
Denis Villenueve, Dune

Not seen:
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Alt: Ridley Scott, The Last Duel or House of Gucci; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Alts: Olivia Colman, The Last Daughter; Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Alts: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ann Dowd, Mass
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Alts: Judi Dench, Belfast; Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Last Duel
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
CODA
Alt: The Lost Daughter

Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Spencer
Mass
Alts: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos

Cinematography
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
Alts: West Side Story, The Last Duel

Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
Dune

Editing 
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The Last Duel

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Cruella
House of Gucci

Sound
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
Eternals

Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
Shang-Chi
Nightmare Alley
The Green Knight

Animated Feature
Luca
Flee
Encanto
Mitchells vs. The Machines
Spirit Untamed