Predictions Friday: The Signal and the Noise

“The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t

The Oscar race right now is noise. If you spend time on Twitter, you will know what that means. It is a bubble and a vacuum all at once. The more time you spend in that world, the harder it is to see what happens outside of it. While publicists do keep a tight connection to the people who cover the race, and it’s true that COVID has fundamentally changed the race as we once knew it, it’s still important to be able to separate personal agendas from the task at hand.

The noise is mostly advocacy. But within that advocacy is also how people want to be seen. The reviews they write, the films they advocate for — all of that defines who they are online and whether or not they are popular. This can impact critics awards much more so than larger consensus votes. It’s harder to convince a consensus to go along with an out-of-the-box contender. Critics sometimes want to be seen as one big voice to push a movie or a contender through, or they sometimes split apart and choose a wide variety of films. Last year, it was neither a secret nor any surprise that it was going to be a year without a white man winning anything. None of the major awards, until you got to BAFTA and the Oscars, went to white men.

Gothams — Nomadland
New York Film Critics — First Cow/Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Los Angeles Film Critics — Small Axe/Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
National Society of Film Critics — Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Golden Globes — Nomadland, Chloe Zhao/Daniel Kaluuya/Andra Day/Jodie Foster/Chadwick Boseman
Critics Choice — Nomadland/Chloe Zhao

It was pretty clear early on that it was going to be a year where Nomadland dominated the season from the beginning to the very end. But strangely, the consensus around Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seemed unbeatable. In that case, the noise was dominating and influencing the major voting bodies like the Globes and the SAG. But the signal was that Ma Rainey was not well-liked. In a year with not many movies heading into the Best Picture race, you’d think it would have at least gotten a Best Picture nomination. But it didn’t. That was a clear signal, or sign, that he might not win.

Similarly, Frances McDormand was starring in the Best Picture frontrunner. That alone was a signal that I chose to ignore that at least one other person, Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter, did not. Since The Shape of Water had a Best Actress nominee in it and it won Best Picture but not Best Actress, it was a signal I ignored. If voters wanted to pick a non-white actress, they had two to choose from, not one. Andra Day won the Globe, Viola Davis won the SAG, and neither was up for the BAFTA. That showed there was a lot of confusion, a lot of noise. Further splitting the vote was Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman which also had a Best Picture nomination.

You would have thought, watching the Emmys for instance, that at least one actor that won would be a person of color as opposed to their unanimous white winners. But the problem was there wasn’t a consensus built around any non-white actor because none of the people nominated were in shows popular enough to build one. But having them as nominees sent the message that they were inclusive and diverse, kind of like how the BAFTA’s committee chose many people of color nominees but in the end, the winners in Best Actress and Best Actor were white because those movies were well-liked and thus, they could build a consensus.

Right now, we have very little signal. It can’t be measured by reviews anymore because first, there are simply too many people writing them and they aren’t the same people every time. Their tastes can’t be measured against the Academy’s anymore. It can’t be measured by Film Twitter because much of that is performative: what will get the most likes. It can’t be measured by box office, particularly, although we can still hold out hope for that.

What do we have? We have one thing: Belfast won the People’s Choice Award in Toronto. That is the only signal we have. Everything else is noise.

There are some guiding principles, however, that might in play. Those are:

Inclusivity

The industry is still going to be prioritizing non-white, non-male winners wherever they can, partly because they see themselves as “good people doing good things,” but also because they will get called out on Twitter if they don’t. One has to have a Dave Chappelle or Ricky Gervais level of IDGAF to withstand those kind of attacks. Humans are, by design, terrified of public humiliation more so than almost anything else. They, like the Academy, want to be praised for what they do, not scolded, not shamed.

Publicist Power

The key publicists still drive the Oscars. They are powerhouses who have been doing this a long time, and there are some newbies here or there. In general, many of the films in the race are going to be guided by one of these high-profile names. I won’t name them because they like to remain under the radar – but if you cover the race, you have to know who is pushing what, how much they will be spending, what the screening situations are going to be like.

For instance, some of the studios are going to require COVID PCR testing for anyone who wants to attend their high-profile screenings or parties. Some of the studios will hand out the tests in advance. But a good majority are simply not going to bother. That greatly cuts down on the schmoozing that would ordinarily be done. This is the kind of crowd that gets vaxxed and still insists on wearing masks OUTDOORS. So yeah, the climate of fear will continue to be omnipresent.

The job of the publicist in an Oscar season is to manage expectations and control the narrative. It is truly a thankless job. Every single person who wins an Oscar should thank their publicist because half the reason they’re standing there is because someone was out there having conversations, setting up interviews, planning parties, reading reviews, etc.

The Golden Globes Still Matter

One of the biggest reasons is that they aren’t plugged into the Oscar bubble online. They exist outside of it and often are the first stop for the movies Film Twitter has chewed up and spit out, like Bohemian Rhapsody. I don’t know whether they will release nominees or not, but in general they can boost a movie like no other group can. No other early group, besides the guilds, has the same kind of power as the Globes do. It’s not that every single one of their nominees that has an impact, but with some films the Globes really can make the difference. Movies this year that the Globes could push into the race are films like The Last Duel and In the Heights, not to mention Respect with Jennifer Hudson. We haven’t yet seen House of Gucci, and if it’s much better than The Last Duel it will be the nominee instead, as many are predicting. But The Last Duel is actor-driven, star-driven, and an epic. It is the stuff Oscar movies have been made on. But without the Globes, with the critics as the only barometer, I’m not sure it makes it in.

The Critics Choice probably wants to have the same impact as the Globes, but despite that they are slightly more populist than the rest of the critics, they are still critics in the way we define critics today. And that is, essentially, any person who wants to write about the movies.

Richard Rushfield’s latest piece brings up the pointlessness of canceling the Globes. Though he doesn’t see them as being as influential as I do, it’s worth remembering exactly where we are at this point in time:

There’s been this fantasy out there that you can swap in the Critics Choice for the Globes. Terrific idea if the awards field was a vital, living sector; if there was a single viewer on the planet who would say – there’s an opening in my dance card for an awards show in late Feb. What can I find to fill that?

This is a legacy sector with a legacy audience. Which means the people watching now are all the people who are ever going to watch this or any of these shows. And when they die, or burn out, or cant find the batteries to their remotes — that’s it. It’s like your parents’ AOL account. Party’s over — it’s last call at the bar and the lights are flicking on and off.

So kill the Globes if you want. That’s speeds that process along by … getting rid of this entire dance that was once the golden chance to promote the magic of Hollywood.

But when it goes, that’s that. There is no swapping, no second chances, no substitute. Not even a goddamn museum of its own!

I had a funny feeling walking around the Academy Museum of it being kind of like a resting place for what was and what used to be, except that they have completely rewritten their history, or else redefined their role in Hollywood entertainment. And maybe that’s it. Maybe we’re witnessing the end of everything relating to film awards. It would be kind of fascinating to be around if and when they finally say goodbye and thanks for all the fish.

Many of my predictions are wishful thinking predictions, not based on anything other than an instinct and my own idea of how I think the race should and will go. We have to wait for signal. We have to try to avoid the noise. Here is a list:

Best Picture

Sure Bets:
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

Probables:
Dune

Unseen but Seemingly Sure Bets:
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Licorice Pizza

Maybes:
The Last Duel
CODA
No Time to Die

Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Joel Coen, Tragedy of Macbeth
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Ridley Scott, Last Duel or House of Gucci

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Alts: Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Matt Damon, The Last Duel
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley; Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Mass
Judi Dench, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Richard Jenkins, Humans
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar or The Last Duel
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza; Andrew Garfield, Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Dune
West Side Story
Alt: The Lost Daughter

Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
C’mon C’mon

Editing
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die

Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Tragedy of Macbeth

Sound
West Side Story
Dune
In the Heights
No Time to Die
The Last Duel

Costumes
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
House of Gucci

Production Design
Nightmare Alley
Dune
West Side Story
Belfast
The Last Duel
Alt: Finch

Visual Effects
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Finch
Eternals

I know I am overly bullish on The Last Duel, but we’re still in the spit n’ rub phase, so there is no need to be right this early on. Twitter noise is not behind the movie, but I do wonder how actors will respond to it, not to mention the HFPA.