Predictions Friday — Sliding Into Home Plate

The screenings for West Side Story (Monday) and Nightmare Alley (December 6) are upon us.  They would ordinarily be what we here at AwardsDaily call “late breakers.” But since voting doesn’t even begin until late January, they are more like old-school drops into the Oscar sweet spot. Remember, the date was pushed up from late March to late February beginning in 2004. Since then, no film has ever won Best Picture that wasn’t seen before or in October:

2005: Crash — Toronto the year before
2006: The Departed — October
2007: No Country for Old Men — Cannes
2008: Slumdog Millionaire — Telluride
2009: The Hurt Locker — Toronto the year before
2010: The King’s Speech — Telluride
2011: The Artist — Cannes
2012: Argo — Telluride
2013: 12 Years a Slave — Telluride
2014: Birdman — Venice/Telluride
2015: Spotlight — Venice/Telluride
2016: Green Book — Toronto
2017: The Shape of Water — Venice/Telluride
2018: Moonlight — Telluride
2019: Parasite — Cannes
2020: Nomadland — Venice

Last year COVID upended everything and the film slate was rocky — the release pattern was not routine. It was truly agonizing to have to watch those productions bake all the way until the Oscars finally lumbered in around April. It almost killed the Oscars off – and it very well might have. We haven’t seen where it’s going from here.

This year, we have another late start and a late Oscar Night date. Some things have come back (Telluride, screenings by celebrities, more or less, and parties, more or less). But the hoopla the awards race was before COVID put on the brakes can not be understated. It really did feel like the Titanic in all ways: the money, the sponsors, the glitterati, the posh screenings — with the rabble that is critics and bloggers being seduced and wowed into this privileged bubble of wealth and fame. Oh, I remember it well.

Then … the bottom fell out.

But the old way, in my opinion, was better for the Oscars. The reason being is the general public had gotten into the groove of the late-breaker — the last-minute Christmas-time movie that could bring audiences to theaters for prestige pics. Audiences were conditioned to mostly turn out for the summer blockbuster and the Christmas movie. A night out at the movies was something the whole family could enjoy and all the better if they were what we used to call the Big Oscar Movies. As we now know, those are MOSTLY a thing of the past.

This year, though, they actually aren’t. If only people could stop being scared and go back to movie theaters.

https://youtu.be/AS8Lq23eb08

Can they? Will they? Who knows. I guess we will find out.

But Brent Lang over at Variety says that early numbers on House of Gucci are promising, showing that Lady Gaga is able to pull in larger numbers than some of the other Oscar movies. Remember, it’s not exactly rocket science — Hollywood and the Oscars especially aim their product at one demographic: upper middle-class and educated. Those are the exact people who are most likely not to turn out to see the movies in theaters. But House of Gucci might be one of the movies they will brave the risks to see.

The whole weekend’s final numbers will tell the tale. But one big shift, at least for me personally (which might not mean much), is that if indeed House of Gucci defies the odds and somehow becomes that movie that brings people back to the theaters, there is a decent chance that could be parlayed into buzz which would land it in Best Picture. The reason I had dropped it was because the reviews aren’t great. It has a B+ Cinemascore and a 60% on Rotten Tomatoes with an 86% audience score. Some love it, some don’t. But I think any movie saving the box office could really go a long way towards good will.

So I don’t know what to do with that. I’d say if the Oscars were being voted on between Christmas and New Year’s as they used to be, the film would have a better shot. But since voting isn’t until late January, you are looking at a situation where voters have more time to think about the nominees. And that works against a movie like House of Gucci. It works better for Ridley Scott’s other (and better) movie, The Last Duel, which is picking up some steam after people see it. Both of these movies will succeed or fail on word of mouth: the good, the bad, and the ugly.

We can’t fully assess the race until we see the next two movies. They are made by two of the most well-respected directors in the industry and may or may not shift things in a different direction.

Don’t Look Up has been screening. It does seem to be actor-friendly and left-leaning voter type friendly with big stars. Might be looking at a SAG ensemble nom. For now, I’ll add it.

We don’t really know anything yet, essentially.

Best Picture
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
4. Being the Ricardos
5. Dune
6. Nightmare Alley (sight unseen)
7. West Side Story (sight unseen)
8. House of Gucci or The Last Duel
9. Don’t Look Up
10. CODA

Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Ridley Scott, The Last Duel
Alts: Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers; Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alts: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel; Haley Bennett, Cyrano

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Alt. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Supporting Actress
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Jared Leto, House of Gucci; Troy Kotsur, CODA

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
West Side Story
The Lost Daughter
Alts: Dune, CODA

Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Parallel Mothers
Don’t Look Up
Alts: Licorice Pizza, C’mon C’mon,

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
Nightmare Alley

Costumes
Cruella
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
Being the Ricardos
Alts: The Last Duel, Dune, House of Gucci

Editing
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Production Design
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
West Side Story

Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
In the Heights

Visual Effects
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Finch
Eternals
Shang-Chi

Animated Feature
Luca
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Flee
Encanto
Spirit Untamed