Predictions Friday: The Cinematography and Director Connection In a Split Year

Since we’ve previously discussed the primary difference between the Oscar years with preferential ballots and without, I thought it might be interesting to look at HOW movies win Oscars under the preferential ballot. Essentially, they win less.

With the help of Marshall Flores, we built charts to look at the years when they used the preferential ballot (from 1932–1943, then from 2009 onward). For one thing, you simply do not get major sweeps anymore. In general, throughout Oscar history, the average number a Best Picture winner receives is five Oscars.

Blue – preferential ballot
Red – non-preferential ballot
Bold — also won Best Director

3 films won 1 Oscar
The Broadway Melody (1928/29)
Grand Hotel (1931/32)
Mutiny on the Bounty (1935)

6 films won 2 Oscars
Wings (1927/28)
All Quiet on the Western Front (1929/30)
You Can’t Take It with You (1938)
Rebecca (1940)
The Greatest Show on Earth (1952)
Spotlight (2015) 

16 films won 3 Oscars
Cimarron (1930/31)
Cavalcade (1932/33)
The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
The Life of Emile Zola (1937)
Casablanca (1943)
Gentleman’s Agreement (1947)
All the King’s Men (1949)
Midnight Cowboy (1969)
The Godfather (1972)
Rocky (1976)
Crash (2005)
Argo (2012)
12 Years a Slave (2013)
Moonlight (2016)
Green Book (2018)
Nomadland (2020)

18 films won 4 Oscars
The Lost Weekend (1945)
Hamlet (1948)
Marty (1955)
Tom Jones (1963)
Annie Hall (1977) 
Ordinary People (1980)
Chariots of Fire (1981)
Platoon (1986)
Rain Man (1988)
Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
Unforgiven (1992)
A Beautiful Mind (2001)
Million Dollar Baby (2004)
The Departed (2006)
No Country for Old Men (2007)
The King’s Speech (2010)
Birdman (2014)
The Shape of Water (2017)
Parasite (2019)

17 films won 5 Oscars
It Happened One Night (1934)
How Green Was My Valley (1941)
Around the World in 80 Days (1956)
The Apartment (1960)
The Sound of Music (1965)
In the Heat of the Night (1967)
Oliver! (1968)
The French Connection (1971)
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)
The Deer Hunter (1978)
Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
Terms of Endearment (1983)
The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
Braveheart (1995)
American Beauty (1999)
Gladiator (2000)
The Artist (2011)

8 films won 6 Oscars
Mrs. Miniver (1942)
All About Eve (1950)
An American in Paris (1951)
A Man for All Seasons (1966)
The Godfather, Part II (1974)
Forrest Gump (1994)
Chicago (2002)
The Hurt Locker (2009)

10 films won 7 Oscars
Going My Way (1944)
The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)
The Bridge On the River Kwai (1957)
Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
Patton (1970)
The Sting (1973)
Out of Africa (1985)
Dances with Wolves (1990)
Schindler’s List (1993)
Shakespeare in Love (1998)

7 films won 8 Oscars
Gone with the Wind (1939)
From Here to Eternity (1953)
On the Waterfront (1954)
My Fair Lady (1964)
Gandhi (1982)
Amadeus (1984)
Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

3 films won 9 Oscars
Gigi (1958)
The Last Emperor (1987)
The English Patient (1996)

1 film won 10 Oscars
West Side Story (1961)

3 films won 11 Oscars
Ben-Hur (1959)
Titanic (1997)
Return of the King (2003)

These are two graphs that Marshall designed. The first is a histogram that shows the distribution of total Oscar wins for Best Picture winners, split between preferential and non-preferential ballot eras; the second is a time series chart that shows these total wins each year over time.

So now we’ve thoroughly examined the difference between the two types of ballots. Why does that matter? Well, obviously, the more movies you have to award, the more likely those wins are going to divide in two directions: the heart and soul of a movie, and the technical marvel or the crafts-oriented movie. But in general (with exceptions here and there): the more Oscars you win, the more likely the films won’t split between Best Picture and Director. If they do split, the film is likely to win LESS Oscars.

Just in terms of our modern era, we can see pretty clearly how that works, even if it’s just a matter of three Oscar wins vs. four:

The Hurt Locker + Director — 6 Oscars
The Artist + Director — 5 Oscars
The King’s Speech + Director — 4 Oscars
Birdman + Director — 4 Oscars
The Shape of Water + Director — 4 Oscars
Parasite + Director — 4 Oscars
Nomadland + Director — 3 Oscars 
Argo — 3 Oscars
12 Years a Slave — 3 Oscars
Moonlight — 3 Oscars
Green Book — 3 Oscars
Spotlight — 2 Oscars

It’s a little odd how difficult it is to win even four Oscars now, but to win more than four seems almost unheard of. It has only happened twice among Best Picture winners. Both of these movies had crafts support heading in.

This year, many are predicting a Best Picture/Best Director split. But looking this over, that means we’re looking at a situation of the Best Picture likely winning not more than three Oscars. Stats only matter until they’re broken, as happened last year when Nomadland became the first film in this preferential ballot era to win both Best Pic and Director but only win 3 Oscars total. I personally think David Fincher was probably the one who should have won Best Director, but that wasn’t going to happen last year, considering Nomadland’s entire trajectory was driven by love for Chloe Zhao.

Had Fincher won, though, that might have been more in keeping with the pattern; the films that won Best Director in the split vote also won Cinematography, as Mank did:

Argo (Life of Pi)
12 Years a Slave (Gravity)
Moonlight (La La Land)
Green Book (Roma)
Spotlight (The Revenant)

Funny, isn’t it? The Power of the DP, so to speak.

All of this to say, if Jane Campion is the frontrunner for Director for The Power of the Dog and Belfast is the frontrunner for Best Picture and it’s going to be a split, there is a pretty good chance that we’re looking at this:

Belfast — Picture, Screenplay + one other Oscar at a minimum
The Power of the Dog — Director, Cinematography at a minimum

It could also go:

The Power of the Dog — Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography
Belfast — Screenplay

(At this point, I would not predict that, but it is certainly possible).

Having just seen The Power of the Dog last night, I realized something I had not known before: the DP is female. We all know how extremely rare that is for any cinematographer to be nominated at all, much less win. One has never won; hell, only one woman has been nominated for Cinematography in 93 years of Oscars history. But here’s the thing: Ari Wegner deserves it. Her competition is incredibly fierce, no doubt — Dune, for one thing. Belfast, for another. The Tragedy of Macbeth, still another. But she has two things they do not have: she is being paired with the Best Director frontrunner, and she has making history on her side.

So I’m just saying … this is why I have decided to predict Ari Wegner for Cinematography. At least, this is where I have arrived after that wonky deep dive into the stats.

And now my friends, my foes, and everyone in between — here are this week’s predictions, with notes:

Best Picture
Given that The Power of the Dog is the Best Director frontrunner, I have moved it to the number two spot. I also have done this because in the era of the preferential ballot, Best Picture and Best Actor tend to split (with the sole exceptions of 2010 and 2011).

I have not yet seen West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, and Being the Ricardos soon, but will be soon. I have seen House of Gucci and Licorice Pizza. They could still possibly make it, but for now I’ve moved them out and put in films I know people love already like CODA and Mass. I don’t know if they have any chance, but they feel more sturdy to me as time goes on and word of mouth spreads. Mass, in particular, seems like an under-the-radar threat because it’s such a powerhouse ensemble.

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
4. Dune
5. Nightmare Alley (sight unseen)
6. West Side Story (sight unseen)
7. CODA
8. Mass
9. Spencer
10. The Last Duel

Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Denis Villenueve, Dune
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers or Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Alts: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story; Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (because you just never know).

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Alts: Lady Gaga, House of Gucci; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel; Haley Bennett, Cyrano

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Supporting Actress
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ann Dowd, Mass
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Alts: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Alt: Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar or The Last Duel

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
Alt: CODA

Original Screenplay
Belfast
King Richard
Parallel Mothers
Mass
Licorice Pizza
Alts: C’mon, C’mon, Don’t Look Up

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
Nightmare Alley

Costumes
Cruella
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
Alts: Dune, House of Gucci

Editing
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley

Production Design
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
The French Dispatch

Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Last Duel
In the Heights

Visual Effects
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Finch
Eternals
Shang-Chi

Animated Feature
Luca
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Flee
Encanto
Spirit Untamed