Best Picture – Testing the Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score

Now that Rotten Tomatoes puts its audience scores front and center, it seems to be an ever-increasing topic of conversation. I always try to look for patterns that will help predict what might win, or what would drive a win. We know that with a preferential ballot, or ranked-choice voting, it is not as easy to figure how specific film titles will rise or fall when the votes come down.

One thing that seems clear is that people do prioritize what they feel good about. Either they push a film to the top because they loved it, or they push it because they want to do some good with their vote. It is about preference for many of them, but it also seems like they can rank a film high on their ballot if they want that film to do well, even if it isn’t their favorite.

But just for the fun of it, I wanted to see how the past Best Picture winners match up in terms of audience score. I will add the critics score but that matters less to me than the larger number of audience members.

Split year in bold.

2020: Nomadland — 93/82 (500+)
2019: Parasite — 98/90 (5,000+)
2018: Green Book — 77/91 (10,000+)
2017: The Shape of Water — 92/72 (25,000+)
2016: Moonlight — 98/79 (25,000+)
2015: Spotlight — 97/93 (50,000+)
2014: Birdman — 91/78 (50,000+)
2013: 12 Years a Slave — 95/90 (100,000+)
2012: Argo — 96/90 (100,000+)
2011: The Artist — 95/87 (50,000+)
2010: The King’s Speech — 94/92 (100,000+)
2009: The Hurt Locker — 97/84 (50,000+)
2008: Slumdog Millionaire — 91/90 (250,000+)
2007: No Country for Old Men — 93/86 (250,000+)
2006: The Departed — 90/94 (250,000+)
2005: Crash — 74/88 (250,000+)
2004: Million Dollar Baby — 90/90 (250,000+)
2003: Return of the King — 93/86 (250,000+)
2002: Chicago — 86/83 (250,000+)
2001: A Beautiful Mind — 74/93 (250,000+)
2000: Gladiator — 77/87 (250,000+)

Ordered by audience score:

The Departed — 90/94 (250,000+)
A Beautiful Mind — 74/93 (250,000+)
Spotlight — 97/93 (50,000+)
The King’s Speech — 94/92 (100,000+)
Green Book — 77/91 (10,000+)
Argo — 96/90 (100,000+)
Slumdog Millionaire — 91/90 (250,000+)
Million Dollar Baby — 90/90 (250,000+)
Parasite — 98/90 (5,000+)
12 Years a Slave — 95/90 (100,000+)
Crash — 74/88 (250,000+)
Gladiator — 77/87 (250,000+)
No Country for Old Men — 93/86 (250,000+)
Return of the King — 93/86 (250,000+)
The Hurt Locker — 97/84 (50,000+)
Chicago — 86/83 (250,000+)
Nomadland — 93/82 (500+)
Moonlight — 98/79 (25,000+)
Birdman — 91/78 (50,000+)
The Shape of Water — 92/72 (25,000+)

Ordered by critics’ score:

Moonlight — 98/79 (25,000+)
Parasite — 98/90 (5,000+)
The Hurt Locker — 97/84 (50,000+)
Spotlight — 97/93 (50,000+)
Argo — 96/90 (100,000+)
12 Years a Slave — 95/90 (100,000+)
The King’s Speech — 94/92 (100,000+)
No Country for Old Men — 93/86 (250,000+)
Nomadland — 93/82 (500+)
Return of the King — 93/86 (250,000+)
The Shape of Water — 92/72 (25,000+)
Birdman — 91/78 (50,000+)
Slumdog Millionaire — 91/90 (250,000+)
The Departed — 90/94 (250,000+)
Million Dollar Baby — 90/90 (250,000+)
Chicago — 86/83 (250,000+)
Green Book — 77/91 (10,000+)
Gladiator — 77/87 (250,000+)
A Beautiful Mind — 74/93 (250,000+)
Crash — 74/88 (250,000+)

The lowest audience score is 72. The lowest critics score is 88. The highest audience score 94. The highest critics score is 98.

One thing seems certain, though: a divisive film on Rotten Tomatoes — meaning it will score lower than, say, a 70 — will have a harder time winning Best Picture. Preferably, the winner will score around 90 or close to it on audience score.

Obviously, any movie can win for any reason. There seems to be an ever-so-slight preference for non-split years in terms of what audiences like than split years. I imagine that’s because without the preferential ballot, it’s just a straight plurality vote. So it makes sense that the ones the audiences liked best would be the ones that the most people voted for.

Just for the fun of it, I wanted to see how the films that won Best Director in a split year fared on this test.

Roma — 96/72 (5,000+); Green Book — 77/91 (10,000+)
La La Land — 91/81 (50,000+); Moonlight — 98/79 (25,000+)
The Revenant — 78/84 (100,000+); Spotlight — 97/93 (50,000+)
Gravity — 96/80 (25,000+); 12 Years a Slave — 95/90 (100,000+)
Life of Pi — 86/84 (100,000+); Argo — 96/90 (100,000+)
Brokeback Mountain — 87/82 (250,000+); Crash — 74/88 (250,000+)
The Pianist — 95/96 (250,000+); Chicago — 86/83 (250,000+)
Traffic — 92/85 (100,000); Gladiator — 77/87 (250,000+)