Good As Gold: Globes and CCA Dispatch

Man, a lot seems to have happened in the month since my last crack at predicting the Oscar race. In that time, many of us have been able to see West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, and several other substantial Oscar contenders. Critics groups have begun to announce their selections ad nauseum. It is a challenge to keep up with all the different awards groups and where their citations are landing. But don’t worry, boo, I got you.

In my updated predictions on the Good As Gold page, you can see who and what is being nominated by various groups (winners are bolded).

While critics might not determine the Oscar winners, they can draw attention to films and performers – especially when a growing consensus forms around a potential nominee. A good case study might be Ruth Negga (Passing) in the Supporting Actress race. While worthy of all the praise she is receiving, her performance can benefit from the spotlight she is being granted from the critics and the Golden Globes. Other contenders in higher profile films might not need the push that Negga is receiving. While it is inconclusive to say that critical recognition is what got her across the finish line if she were to receive an Oscar nomination, it certainly will not have hurt.

Since the Critics’ Choice Association started nominating films for Best Picture (1996), there have been 172 Oscar nominees in the same category. 157 of those Oscar contenders received a Best Picture nomination from the Critics’ Choice first (a little over 91%). Some would argue that is all the CCA strives to achieve – as Rolling Stones’ Peter Travers recently posted to Facebook in regards to this year’s CCA noms: “With a few exceptions, the nominees hit the same mainstream note, hoping to predict what Oscar will do when the Academy announces its contenders on Feb 8.”

He isn’t wrong. You would expect the highest reviewed films of the year to show up with a group that is supposed to embody the entire span of film critics, right? So where is In the Heights, Summer of Soul, and Pig in their Best Picture lineup? Per Rotten Tomatoes, those are the highest rated eligible films. How about Rocks, Procession, or Flee? Per Metacritic, those are the films that should also be in the consensus list. Films like The Green Knight, Titane, and The Lost Daughter were revered by critics all year, yet when the rubber hits the road, the CCA once again appears to default to what they expect to match up with Oscar. I’m sure they love hearing that Oscar overlaps with their selections 91% of the time if that’s the case.

But I digress. After all, most of their choices would align with my own Top 10 list for the year. So, dear readers, it seems your friend and humble narrator is no better than the CCA.

As far as the Globes are concerned, Belfast and The Power of the Dog were the only films that received the trifecta noms of Picture/Director/Screenplay. Why this might be important: Out of the past 51 years of Globes history, the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture received a Globe nomination for Screenplay 45 times. The last Picture winner without the Globe Screenplay nomination was Million Dollar Baby (2004). Of course, the Globes are a small group that have zero overlap with the Academy, so it must be noted that this could, in fact, just be an odd peculiarity. What the Globes – and so many other precursors – do for those in contention is put them in the limelight. While smaller films often face the fate of ‘out of sight, out of mind,’ awards recognition keeps the contenders in the discussion. It moves a film to the top of the pile of endless screeners to watch. And thus, ends up getting a better shot at the Oscar.

In total, nine films received Best Picture nominations from both the Globes and the CCA. Considering the CCA track record with predicting the Oscars… errr… I mean overlapping with the Oscars, you might bet on those nine repeating for Oscar.

They are:

Belfast
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Dune
tick… tick… Boom!
CODA
Don’t Look Up

If those nine repeat, what fills the 10th spot? Nightmare Alley is the additional selection by CCA while Cyrano received the Globe nomination in its spot. Could a crowd pleaser like Being the Ricardos round out the list? Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter are all contenders that missed with both groups but could still snag a spot. Perhaps a non-English language film breaks through and grabs hold of that last spot? Consider Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers, Julia Ducournau’s Cannes-winning Titane, or Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car – which recently won both New York and Boston film critics prizes for Best Picture.

Of the nine grabbing both Globe and CCA noms, which is most vulnerable? Will Don’t Look Up be too divisive? Will tick…tick… Boom! be able to join West Side Story as two musical Best Picture noms? Can Netflix really land three spots on the list (tick…tick… Boom!, The Power of the Dog, and Don’t Look Up)?

The guilds are just around the corner. The Oscar shortlists will be announced 12/21. It is said that certainty is the calm before the storm, and if that’s where we are at, anything is possible and nothing is certain.