Predictions Friday: Happy Christmas to All and to All a Good Night

This is our third COVID year for the Oscar race and the second time COVID has nearly scuttled Oscar Night altogether. It’s all kind of a blur, isn’t it? Virtual awards shows, masks, PCR tests, somehow movies being shown on laptop screens. In COVID’s first year, the Oscars narrowly slipped in under the wire, just before COVID brought the hammer down. Man oh man have things changed since then. That means, to an extent, we’re flying blind again through this season. It is entirely possible we’ll be dealing with another virtual awards shows to some unknown extent, though I expect the Critics Choice and other groups that have postponed their awards are hoping for COVID, or at least COVID panic, to end. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The Oscar race is already humming along as it has been in recent years, with very little involvement from the public deemed necessary. Significantly, we’re no longer looking at movies in terms of how much money they made, That factor is not part of the equation, although Dune and Spider-Man are certainly going to be considered differently in light of how the box office for almost every other major movie recently has been disappointing, to say the least.

Spider-Man is probably going to take its place among the highest-grossing films of all time.  While there is always discussion about which extraordinary blockbuster movies might make it in based on box office, from the Dark Knight to The Force Awakens, so far the Academy hasn’t shown much willingness to budge from their disdain. But that was then. This is now. The moment everyone feared has arrived. Will there still be a viable market for art-house movies that play in theaters in New York and LA? Sure. Will there wide release “adult” dramas? Some fear the answer is probably not.

Here are some Morning Consult charts that track which audience demos are still too cautious to go out to the movies and which are not – essentially, older movie-lovers and Democrats are less inclined. Younger filmgoers and Republicans are more inclined. Though the gap between most eager and most wary is only around 15 or 20%.

I guess what we’re seeing is that Gen-Z, millennials, and Republicans are the most reliable ticket-buyers for theatrical movies – which explains why horror, comedy, action, and effects movies do so well while traditional dramas do not. Trust me, as the parent of a 23-year-old, serious adult drama aimed at boomers aren’t her thing. My daughter and her peers came of age in the era of Harry Potter and the Lord of the Rings, not to mention the internet and social media. For most of them, their expectations of storytelling are, quite simply, different from those of older adults.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are less likely to let COVID stop them from going to the movies and the least likely to be interested in “Oscar movies.” I’ve said this before but these polls prove it. The conservative site The Daily Wire is now getting into the movie distribution business since streaming is something anyone can really set up and charge money for. But I would bet that their movies would do well if released in theaters because there is an untapped audience for the kind of movies that conservative filmmakers create.

One upside of superhero movies is that they keep people in the habit of going to movie theaters.  That so many millions of people want to see the next big wow at the movies isn’t the worst thing in the world. Who knows what kinds of movies might get made in the future. The only thing we know for sure right now is that the old way is fading.

In terms of the Oscar race, has anything changed other than fifth-wave COVID? It doesn’t seem so. The critics have spoken. We know what they like. The industry, not so much.

One thing about having movies so widely available on streaming is that lots of people can now see them and discuss them. For better or worse since Twitter is always hungry for the next piece of meat to toss into the arena. Whether it’s Aaron Sorkin or Ben Affleck or Nicole Kidman – it is its own form of entertainment, alternately exalting the chosen ones or bringing down the less fortunate targets. How people talk about movies will eventually shift the perceptions around a month from now, when voters have ballots in hand. Normally they’d already be starting to vote right about now.

Here are my predictions for this week

Best Picture
1. Belfast
2. West Side Story
3. The Power of the Dog
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. Licorice Pizza
7. CODA
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Being the Ricardos
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Alt – Don’t Look Up, The Lost Daughter, tick… tick… Boom!

Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Alts: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard; Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Alt. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!; Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alts: Marlee Matlin, CODA; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Alts: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Nightmare Alley
Alts: Dune, The Last Duel

Original Screenplay
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Belfast
Alt: Nightmare Alley

Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Alts: The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog

Editing
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dune
West Side Story
Belfast
The Power of the Dog

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Sound
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!

Visual Effects
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Dune
The Eternals
Shang-Chi

Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Original Score
The Power of the Dog
Encanto
Dune
Don’t Look Up
King Richard

Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect

Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed

International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alt. Finland, Compartment No. 6

Documentary Feature
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Flee
Julia
Procession

Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season for every faith and celebration. All the best to you and yours, and thank you for being such loyal readers for all these years.