Predictions Friday: Just Gimme Some Truth

Paul Thomas Anderson has been hit with some mild controversies over Licorice Pizza. Both of them stem from his telling the truth about what things were actually like back in the ’70s. Most of those who cover film aren’t old enough to remember the 70’s, but trust me when I tell you — this was a chaste version of what they were like. Maybe because Alana Haim looks about 17 and not 24 or 25, it isn’t quite as visually obvious that it’s a teenage boy and an older woman — but not only was that a common fantasy back then, it happened more frequently than you’d think.

The question isn’t whether or not it’s realistic — it obviously is. The question is whether anyone should make a movie like that now. It has been brought up on Twitter and elsewhere that there is something “problematic” about the film’s theme. I guess the question is whether or not we want to be a culture that can handle the truth or whether we want all of our art to give the reality we prefer.

The movie the Summer of ’42 was about the 1970s even if it supposedly took place in the 1940s. In the ’70’s, American culture was exploding out of the 1960s. Gone was the Hayes code: it was free love, wild sex, and the “me” generation.  Parents of my generation were off finding themselves, dropping in and dropping out, and they left my generation to fend for itself. Childhood wasn’t “special” like it is now. All of us wanted to be adults as soon as possible. This is how you get to Tatum O’Neal smoking and talking about the “the pill” at 11 in The Bad News Bears. It’s hard to understand what it was like unless you lived through it, but PTA’s version is accurate to the time if a bit tame.

When we ’70’s kids grew up, we went to therapy to work out the problems of our chaotic childhoods. We watched Oprah for a decade and eventually we raised our own children as over-protective parents who wanted to right the wrongs of our own upbringings. That would be otherwise known as helicopter parents and we raised the generation that is currently monitoring our art, history, language, behavior, science for anything “problematic.” How hard it is now to say, “Loosen up, kids. You’re taking all of this way too seriously — get out and have some fun.” Well, of course, you know how hard it is. You wake up every day in America in 2021.

The even bigger controversy for the film isn’t something I feel like it’s my place to discuss, and that is whether or not a character should have been in the film at all. He’s an ignorant jerk who’s meant to represent an insensitive oaf in the movie: a man who exhibits casual racism when he speaks in crude broken English to two of his Japanese wives. He can’t speak a word of Japanese, yet he expects if he speaks in stereotypical and heavily accented English that his wives will understand him. From the way they look askance at him, it’s clear that they understand he’s an asshole. Here again, these scenes simply tell the truth about what things were like back then in a very mild form. It was right out in the open, not just disrespecting people of other races or by treating them like children, but overt actual racism. I remember it very clearly.

The question isn’t whether it is realistic or not. It is. The question is whether it’s offensive or not and I suspect, to some Asians, it is. The question then becomes is art for everyone, or should it be for everyone, and what are we to do if one group is offended? Does the art then become completely useless? We seem to live in a time where we see only one safe target: white people. Everyone is invited to mock and criticize white people, which creates a kind of inverted power structure wherein whites are still singled out, allowed more complexity, and have the luxury of being made fun of while everyone else must be portrayed respectfully, safely, responsibly. Again, it’s not up to me. You decide. Either way, PTA wasn’t trying to be offensive; he was trying to tell the truth about what life back then was like. And yes, I know in 2021 intent doesn’t matter (though of course it always does).

I suspect the controversy will do what controversies almost always do: help the movie, not hurt it. People will feel defiant and frustrated by the complaints and will double-down their support for it. That works in the movie’s favor, Oscar-wise.

I don’t know yet how this year’s Oscar race will land, but I do know that the films people choose to pick as their number one will be greatly influenced by how the conversations go from now until the end of January. By then, I expect Spider-Man will have become the highest-grossing film of all time, passing The Force Awakens. People will still be talking about Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up because, imperfect though it may be, it captures America, especially certain parts of America, absolutely perfectly. If both of these movies are in the Best Picture race, you will have a time capsule of what life was like — what Hollywood was like — in 2021. One is the best chance theatrical has, and one is Netflix: the gathering storm.

Licorice Pizza holds its place as pure art, an honest rendering of remembrances of things past — and that has value in our culture. Belfast is another one that does that. These are bittersweet movies about time gone by. They are stories by brilliant and insightful storytellers who have given us a glimpse into what it was like to live through events in our collective past. They will hold their place as profound voices of artists we appreciate.

Whatever happens, I don’t think the answer to this year’s race is going to be found on Twitter. Rather, we’re going to have listen very carefully to the mood of the industry as we head through the last phase: the guild awards. This is the most exciting part. Once the nominations drop, it’s a whole new ball game.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

If I think Spider-Man is going to crack the top ten, which I think it might (and should), I have to lose one. Our consensus right now that has AFI, NBR, Globes, and Critics Choice would be:

Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
West Side Story
CODA

We have had movies in the era of the expanded ballot that had all of those and didn’t get in: Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Inside Llewyn Davis. Whether or not any of the above will be one of those movies is hard to say. It’s certainly possible. But I’m going to keep all of these.

Then we have to add: The Power of the Dog, which isn’t going to miss.

That leaves us with just two slots left, and one has to be Spider-Man. So…that gives us one other film to add of the following:

Nightmare Alley (AFI, NBR, Critics Choice)
tick, tick… Boom! (AFI, Critics Choice, Globes)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (AFI, NBR)
The Last Duel (NBR)
Cyrano (Globes)

Three movies have gotten in with none of these other nominations before:

Amour
The Blind Side
District 9

Do we have any clues as to which film will be the chosen one? Not really. Anyone’s guess. I think I would put my chips behind Guillermo del Toro, however. Might be wrong. You never know. That leaves us with:

Best Picture
1. Belfast
2. West Side Story
3. The Power of the Dog
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. Licorice Pizza
7. CODA
8. Don’t Look Up
9. Nightmare Alley
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home

If Spider-Man is in for PGA but out for Oscar, I would look for a movie like The Tragedy of Macbeth to get in or tick, tick… Boom!. Follow the actors on that. I am hoping Spider-Man gets in. I guess we’ll see.

Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley; Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Alts: Mike Faist, West Side Story; Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Dune
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel

Original Screenplay
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Alt: Nightmare Alley

Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Alts: The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog

Editing
Dune
Belfast
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Sound
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
tick, tick… Boom!

Visual Effects
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Dune
The Eternals
Shang-Chi

Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Original Score
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
Encanto
Dune
King Richard

Original Song
Be Alive from “King Richard”
No Time To Die from “No Time to Die”
Down To Joy from Belfast
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) from Respect

Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Flee
Spirit Untamed

International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Denmark, Flee
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alt: Finland, Compartment No. 6

Documentary Feature
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Flee
Julia
Procession

And finally, HAPPY NEW YEAR dear AwardsDaily readers. That you come here every day and argue and debate and think about the Oscars with us going on 21 years or whatever it’s been is wonderful. We’re so grateful. Wishing you all the best in 2022.