The Best Actress Race Is the Most Competitive in Years

This season’s Best Actress race started when Penelope Cruz won in Venice. Then, Kristen Stewart seemingly took the lead when the Telluride FIlm Festival screened Spencer to rapturous raves. The critics definitely favored some contenders over others. That seemed to shift things since without typical box-office tallies there really isn’t any other barometer for popularity other than critics and film Twitter.  We don’t have any major events or any kind of way to tell other than the chatter online.

I got the copyright released so here is the video back:

https://youtu.be/pBL4SHW4Xx4

That brought us to the Golden Globes where Kristen Stewart was nominated and Jennifer Hudson wasn’t. Then came the SAG nominations where Jennifer Hudson was nominated and Kristen Stewart wasn’t. Complicating matters further we have a BAFTA long list:

Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos (Globes+/SAG)
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Globes/SAG)
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (Globes/SAG)
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (Globes/SAG)
Jennifer Hudson, Respect (SAG)
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (Globes+)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (Globes)
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (Globes)
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (Globes)
Emilia Jones, CODA
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Tessa Thompson, Passing

But the BAFTA only allows its members to pick two of the contenders. Then a committee is brought in to select the other three. We don’t know who those will be. The BAFTA list, though, will have no impact on the Oscar nominees since Oscar ballots are due before the BAFTA announces. Still, it will be interesting. Who knows who the members of the committee are and what their criteria will be. All we know is that they were brought in to address diversity, equity, and inclusion. Even still, it seems like people/critics are going out of their way to deny Jennifer Hudson any benefit from that directive thus far. I guess we’ll have to see what happens there. Last year, it was the BAFTA that foretold Frances McDormand’s win.

If you factor in the Globes and the SAG you can see we have four very likely Best Actress contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Then the next mostly likely three could be:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect (SAG nominee)
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (Globe winner)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (Globe nominee)

Of these, the two that have the most “Best Picture heat” would be the two who won the Golden Globes:

Kidman
Zegler

Does that mean Zegler takes the fifth slot? Looking back over their history, it does look like having Best Picture heat does sometimes mean both Globes winners triumph in the end. But Kristen Stewart’s strength among critics awards might push her through instead. Finally, if the BAFTA voters are inclined towards Jennifer Hudson (even though their nominees will be announced after Oscar voting is done) that could lean in her direction.

In general, we don’t see a lot of brand new names that show up at the Oscars that weren’t named at Globes or SAG.

1994 – Winona Ryder, Little Women
1997 – Julie Christie, Afterglow
2003 – Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider and Samantha Morton, In America
2012 – Emmanuelle Riva, Amour, Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
2014 – Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
2015 – Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
2017 – Meryl Streep, The Post
2018 – Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
2019 – Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

In the era of the expanded ballot (2009 to present) we see more examples of names that got in because of the strength of their Best Picture contenders. In two cases, the critics were 100% responsible for getting those names in. They pushed hard for Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night and Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years.

Who else might we see that doesn’t have a Globe or a SAG but does have Best Picture heat?

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA

One thing to consider is the muted reception of the Globes. Last year, when there was a muted reception of the Globes we had three different winners at the Globes, SAG and Oscar. That’s because live shows, live appearances help to build the consensus. Seeing stars on the red carpet or sitting in the Globes banquet room often helps solidify their status. But without that, all we really have are the movies and the performances themselves.

The second thing to consider is the time frame. Voters have only this weekend to sort out their feelings about which performances they liked the best. That isn’t a lot of time. By Tuesday, the whole thing is decided. That makes it all really hard to predict. The voters aren’t necessarily going to have a clear picture in their minds of who the Consensus Five are. All we really have is history to go on.

There aren’t many Best Picture contenders this year being driven by Best Actress. Where this year we have King Richard and Will Smith, The Power of the Dog and Benedict Cumberbatch, tick tick Boom and Andrew Garfield, in the Best Actress race we’re mostly looking at contenders that won’t have a corresponding Best Picture nomination. It looks like it’s possible we will have all five Best Actress contenders in non-Best Picture nominees. It’s never happened in the era of the expanded ballot and the last time it did happen was in 2005. So that doesn’t seem likely to me and yet here we are.

To that end, I think it would be wise to pick at least one actress from a Best Picture nominee – that might mean Rachel Zegler gets in from West Side Story, or it might mean Nicole, or Gaga, or Olivia if Being the Ricardos or House of Gucci or the Lost Daughter gets in for Best Picture.

How do you think it will shake out? Take our poll below.

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