Best Actress Post-BAFTA (and BAFTA Contest Winners)

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Well, things have suddenly gotten even more confusing in the Best Actress race. That’s because, even though the BAFTA members had been put in awards voting jail, they were allowed to select two in the Best Actress race (“Thank you, Sir, may I have another?”). We don’t know which ones the voters chose. But I think, just in terms of how the nominations rolled out, that the two the voters chose were:

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Then the four that the committee chose were:

Emilia Jones, CODA
Renate Reinsve, Worst Person
Joanna Scanlon, After Love
Tessa Thompson, Passing

There is a slight chance Emilia Jones got in for CODA due to the voters. But let’s just say it’s Haim. Here is how they align with Globes and SAG, along with last year:

Last year, only two made it all the way through to the Oscar, which probably means those two were the ones the voters chose.

Coming out of the Golden Globes, Nicole Kidman had taken the frontrunner slot for Being the Ricardos. But since Lady Gaga is now the only contender that has nominations across the board, does that make her the new frontrunner? Maybe. We only have one year to go off of and that was the “BAFTA revolt” year. We obviously won’t know until the Oscar nominations come out, but we would assume that if Kidman was indeed the frontrunner to WIN, surely she would show up at BAFTA. Again, maybe. It’s hard to judge BAFTA history because they have changed both their voting procedures and their date a few times. Like, prior to 2000, they used to hold their ceremony after the Oscars.

But be that as it may, let’s look back through their history for Best Actress. Is the Best Actress winner always nominated first at the BAFTA? Well, it’s important again to remember that the BAFTA first changed their voting procedures around 2012, but not for the acting categories. The entire membership still voted for those. Still, for some reason, after that there was more alignment with the Oscars, and since then the winners have appeared at BAFTA first, sometimes even winning there before winning the Oscar in an upset, like Olivia Colman. But prior to 2012, Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side and Hillary Swank for Million Dollar Baby were among those who didn’t get a BAFTA nom.

I’m not convinced, given the short time frame and last year’s sudden lurch towards committee selecting for the acting categories, that we can be sure we have a new frontrunner in Lady Gaga. But it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. The thing to remember is the Oscar race is fluid, not static. It is always in motion. Sentiments and feelings can change.

Here is a quick look at the upcoming calendar of events (per AwardsWatch):

February 8: Oscar nominations
February 25: SAG voting ends
February 27: The SAG awards
March 17: Final Oscar voting begins
March 22: Final Oscar voting ends
March 27: The Oscars

So that’s kind of an eternity. Granted, Lady Gaga has an incredible presence. This is not only visible on screen but in person. I imagine putting her in a room full of Academy members for the luncheon is going to be a pretty big deal, not that they aren’t used to her. She was nominated already for A Star Is Born, but still.

So all we really know heading in is that Lady Gaga is the only one who landed in Globes/SAG and BAFTA. That would seem like she’s the new frontrunner. We will just have to see how it all plays out. Frances McDormand starred in the Best Picture winner last year. If the Academy nominates House of Gucci and not, say, Being the Ricardos, then it is much more likely that Gaga is the frontrunner. She did not win at the Golden Globes, however, and that is also something to consider.

The thing is, someone is going to have to win the BAFTA. We don’t yet know if more than one of these nominees will land at Oscar. But all I know is our old friend, Variety’s Jazz Tangcay, gets bragging rights if Gaga does win it all. She called it long ago.

This is probably overkill but for what it’s worth: