Predictions Friday: Final Oscar Nominations

The Oscar voters were probably like a lot of you. Many of them probably waited until the last minute to eat their vegetables — the vegetables in this case being the films they knew they SHOULD watch but didn’t necessarily want to. They gobbled up the tasty carbs first, maybe went in for high fats, perhaps they even devoured their dessert. Then they stared at that clump of broccoli and they said, “Time to grim up and face the music.”

That’s because the motives of Oscar voters tend to be a lot more like the general public than they are like the film critics. Granted, everyone in this scenario gets to see movies for free. But their perspectives are slightly off. If you are throwing down your hard-earned coin, you’re going to be evaluating movies differently. Moreover, if you are watching movies in a room full of people, how that crowd responds to movies is something everyone can collectively feel. That’s why it’s more fun to watch movies with audiences than it is to sit there on your couch with a million other distractions poking at the edges.

Critics are way into their vegetables. That’s their whole thing. They’re like that one Facebook friend that has all of the healthy food advice you could ever want. For critics, it’s all vegetables all the time. But they like it that way. The critics mostly shape the Oscar race. So the voters have no choice but to look at their plate and go to town.

Okay, so I stretched that metaphor a paragraph too far, but the general point is this: Academy voters probably put off seeing a lot of movies they should have watched, so I won’t be surprised if the nominations reveal that. That would mean they mostly follow the consensus with not a lot of surprises thrown in. But it’s been such a strange year it’s hard to know what the consensus even is.

I am not sure how much thought they will have put into any of this, or how many of them have time or energy to watch everything. For instance, if we think there are three movies that might land in that 10th slot for the Oscars (9th or 10th depending on how you see it), will that movie be upbeat or will it be a harder sit? Will it be more contemplative, like Drive My Car, or might they even go balls-out for Spider-Man?

Let’s do this, shall we?

I have built a massive chart of a lot of nominations and what I have found is that, in the era of the preferential ballot, all films nominated for Best Picture (except three) have come from one of three groups: Critics Choice, the Producers Guild, and BAFTA. Of course, DGA would also count. The three movies that broke past this rule were The Blind Side (with Best Actress frontrunner and ultimate winner, Sandra Bullock), Amour, which had Michael Haneke in for Best Director and Emmanuelle Riva in for Best Actress, and Phantom Thread, which also carried Paul Thomas Anderson into Best Director and had Daniel Day-Lewis scoring a nod for Best Actor. The Blind Side would make the case for House of Gucci, perhaps, and Amour would make the case for Drive My Car. Otherwise, the movies in play would come from those three groups.

It should also without saying that no film has ever gotten Critics Choice, PGA and BAFTA and missed Best Picture.

Best Picture

Starting with the DGA Five:

1. Belfast (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG/DGA/BAFTA pic)
2. The Power of the Dog (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
3, Licorice Pizza (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
4. Dune (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
5. West Side Story (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA)

Adding on SAG ensemble:

6. Don’t Look Up (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG/BAFTA pic)
7. King Richard (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG)
8. CODA (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG)

Now we get to our last two humdinger slots. The PGA named Being the Ricardos and tick, tick…BOOM!. History tells us both of these won’t get in (though stats were meant to be broken). You could just pick both of these and probably do okay — you might miss one. But how else might this go? In the past, the movie that breaks through is usually there because the actors put it there.

Spider-Man: No Way Home is probably not getting in. The reason is, why would the voters want to award something and support something that an unknown number of them believe has ruined their industry? They believe the reason films by Netflix, Amazon, and Apple are in the race instead of the big studios is because of the traditional studios’ fixation on superhero movies. If they see their vote as an endorsement, they are not likely to endorse this film even if it means their own survival as an awards group and a film industry.

Could anything else sneak in, like Drive My Car? Sure. But generally, actor-driven fare is what lands. Now, Drive My Car could show up with a Best Director nomination and Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. That is theoretically possible. I see a lot of people predicting just that and it’s as good as any other prediction. I’m not because the movie is a tough sit at home on screener. It’s a movie that starts out very plot-driven, then it kind of slows to a long contemplative study on grief. That said, the Oscars have been expanding towards a more international scope of late, so Drive My Car in Best Picture is possible.

We know it’s rare for all SAG ensemble nominees to get into Best Picture. But it has happened, though: It happened in 2014 and it happened in 2010. Both of those years the consensus was very much lined up. They weren’t all over the place.

So looking at Gold Derby, the two most reliable (I think) predictors have two options. Joyce Eng has tick, tick…BOOM! and Drive My Car in. Anne Thompson has the PGA ten, tick, tick…BOOM! and Being the Ricardos. Both of them have a pretty good chance of getting just one wrong. That means I’ll go with tick, tick…BOOM! as my 9th.

9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA)

Finally, for my tenth, it’s a wild card. What movies got in with just Critics Choice and no PGA or BAFTA when you limit the criteria to just these groups?

Room (acting)
Selma
The Tree of Life (directing)
Winter’s Bone (acting)

And with just PGA:

Bohemian Rhapsody (acting)
American Sniper (directing, acting)

And with just BAFTA:

The Father (acting)
Philomena (acting)

So acting or directing or both tends to drive it. With Selma, there was a groundswell of support and the nomination didn’t just come from nowhere. But in general, for those last slots we’re likely looking at acting contenders being in play.

The last two spots are, I think, potentially filled with four possibilities: Being the Ricardos, tick, tick…BOOM!, Nightmare Alley, and Drive My Car. Of these, only two have acting nominees in play — unless Cate Blanchett makes it in, which I think she will.

Onto the predictions.

Predictions

Best Picture

Belfast (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG/DGA/BAFTA pic)
The Power of the Dog (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
Licorice Pizza (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
Dune (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA/BAFTA pic)
West Side Story (Globes+/Critics Choice/PGA/DGA)
Don’t Look Up (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG/BAFTA pic)
King Richard (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG)
CODA (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA/SAG)
tick, tick…BOOM! (Globes/Critics Choice/PGA)
Being the Ricardos (PGA)
Alts:  Nightmare Alley (Critics Choice), Drive My Car, House of Gucci

Best Director

Looking at Gold Derby, I was rather shocked to find they are following the Film Twitter thing of thinking Kenneth Branagh will miss. I guess they see it like The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Green Book somehow? Since the movie is about his life and he wrote it, there doesn’t seem like any chance they would not choose him if they like the movie. The movie is ABOUT HIM. If it weren’t, I could see it maybe missing. I guess we’ll see if they turn out to be right. Joyce Eng is going all in for Drive My Car with Branagh replaced by Ryusuke Hamaguchi. Anne Thompson has Steven Spielberg out and Hamaguchi in. It is only my own reaction to West Side Story that keeps me from choosing him in the Best Director category. I feel like Guillermo del Toro might have a better shot with Nightmare Alley. But what do I know. Don’t listen to me.

Most of the time, although not always, one name misses from the DGA. But knowing which one that will be is tricky, especially this year. Because the BAFTA’s “committee” chose all of the directing nominees, we have absolutely no way of knowing what the BAFTA voters thought of Drive My Car. For instance, when Thomas Vinterberg showed up as the surprise nominee in Best Director last year, Mads Mikkelsen was nominated at the BAFTA for Best Actor, and Vintenberg was also nominated in Original Screenplay. Another Round had made the long list in six different categories. When Pawel Pawlikowski showed up for Cold War in 2020, he’d also gotten a non-committee Best Director nomination. Drive My Car has four citations on the BAFTA long list, and did get in for Adapted Screenplay and Best Director. But it was committee-selected.

Granted, Drive My Car is like Amour, minus the acting nomination. But considering how well-respected Guillermo del Toro is, I think he might be the fifth slot nominee. The problem is, I do not know which of the directors from the DGA will get dumped. I don’t buy it that Branagh is that one. But none of the others seem likely either. It is a conundrum.

Update: I’m going to play it safe and stick with DGA Five.

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (DGA)
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (DGA)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (DGA)
Denis Villenuve, Dune (DGA)
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (DGA)
Alts: Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Alts: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story; Tessa Thompson, Passing; Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Alts: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up; Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Alts: Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Marlee Matlin, CODA; Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Ann Dowd, Mass; Haley Bennett, Cyrano; Martha Plimpton, Mass

Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Alts: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up; Mike Faist, West Side Story; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
West Side Story
CODA
Drive My Car
Alts: Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Dune

Original Screenplay
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alts: Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon

Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt: West Side Story

Costumes
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
West Side Story
Alt, Dune

Editing
Dune
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog

Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The French Dispatch

Sound
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place II
Alt. Belfast

Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die
Godzilla vs. Kong
Free Guy

Makeup and Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Dune
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci

Original Score
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Parallel Mothers
The French Dispatch
(Alt. Being the Ricardos)

Original Song
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Animated Feature
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Flee

Animated Short
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
Robin Robin
Namoo
Bestia
Alt. Bad Seeds

International Feature
Japan, Drive My Car
Finland, Compartment No. 6
Iran, A Hero
Italy, The Hand of God
Norway, The Worst Person in the World
Alt: Denmark, Flee

Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
The First Wave
Procession

Documentary Short
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Terror Contagion
The Queen of Basketball
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

Live Action Short
Censor of Dreams
When the Sun Sets
The Long Goodbye
You’re Dead Helen
Stenofonen
Alt. Ala Kachuu: Take and Run

In case you want to look at the charts, here you go.