Predictions Friday: The WGA, the PGA, The ASC – Oh My

As Iggy Pop would say, friends, “It’ll all be over soon.” And it will be. We just have two last gasps here with a total debacle headed our way with the Writers Guild.

In an ordinary year, we spring off of the Golden Globes with a winner. The next thing happens is the Producers Guild. That would be ten films with a preferential ballot. Either that winner agrees with the Globes (and the Oscars)…

(Globe / PGA / Oscar)

2011 — The Artist / The Artist / The Artist
2012 — Argo / Argo / Argo
2013 — 12 Years a Slave / 12 Years a Slave + Gravity / 12 Years a Slave
2018 — Green Book / Green Book / Green Book
2020 — Nomadland / Nomadland / Nomadland

…Or it doesn’t:
2009 — Avatar / The Hurt Locker / The Hurt Locker
2010 — The Social Network / The King’s Speech / The King’s Speech
2014 — Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel / Birdman / Birdman
2015 — The Revenant / The Big Short / Spotlight
2016 — La La Land, Moonlight / La La Land / Moonlight
2017 — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri / The Shape of Water / The Shape of Water
2019 — 1917 / 1917 / Parasite

Only once in the era of the preferential ballot has a Globes winner gone on to win the Oscar without winning PGA — Moonlight.

If we go back further before the preferential ballot and the expanded Best Picture lineup:

Matched:
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire / Slumdog Millionaire / Slumdog Millionaire
2007 — No Country / No Country / No Country
2003 — ROTK / ROTK / ROTK
2002 — Chicago, The Hours / Chicago / Chicago
2000 — Gladiator / Gladiator / Gladiator
1999 — American Beauty / American Beauty / American Beauty
1997 — Titanic / Titanic / Titanic

Didn’t match:
2006 — Babel / Little Miss Sunshine / The Departed
2005 — Brokeback Mountain / Brokeback Mountain / Crash
2004 — The Aviator / The Aviator / Million Dollar Baby
2001 — A Beautiful Mind, Moulin Rouge! / Moulin Rouge! / A Beautiful Mind
1998 — Saving Private Ryan / Saving Private Ryan / Shakespeare in Love

The three tended to match more often than they didn’t. When you fold in the DGA for both matched and unmatched, you see that the director really did make the difference back then, and drove the Best Picture race — something that doesn’t happen as much anymore:

(Globe / PGA / DGA / Oscar)

DGA matched:
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire / Slumdog Millionaire / Slumdog Millionaire / Slumdog Millionaire
2006 — Babel / Little Miss Sunshine / The Departed / The Departed
2007 — No Country / No Country / No Country / No Country
2004 — The Aviator / The Aviator / Million Dollar Baby / Million Dollar Baby
2003 — ROTK / ROTK / ROTK / ROTK
2002 — Chicago, The Hours / Chicago / Chicago / Chicago
2001 — A Beautiful Mind, Moulin Rouge! / Moulin Rouge! / A Beautiful Mind / A Beautiful Mind
1999 — American Beauty / American Beauty / American Beauty / American Beauty
1997 — Titanic /Titanic / Titanic / Titanic

DGA didn’t match:
2005 — Brokeback Mountain / Brokeback Mountain / Brokeback Mountain / Crash
2000 — Gladiator / Gladiator / Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon / Gladiator
1998 — Saving Private Ryan / Saving Private Ryan / Saving Private Ryan / Shakespeare in Love

And now, if we fold in the DGA to our current expanded ballot era, we have:

DGA matched with Best Picture:
2009 — Avatar / The Hurt Locker / The Hurt Locker / The Hurt Locker
2010 — The Social Network / The King’s Speech / The King’s Speech / The King’s Speech
2011 — The Artist / The Artist / The Artist / The Artist
2012 — Argo / Argo / Argo / Argo
2014 — Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel / Birdman / Birdman / Birdman
2017 — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri / The Shape of Water / The Shape of Water / The Shape of Water
2020 — Nomadland / Nomadland / Nomadland

DGA didn’t match:
2013 — 12 Years a Slave / 12 Years a Slave + Gravity / Gravity / 12 Years a Slave
2018 — Green Book / Green Book / Roma / Green Book
2015 — The Revenant / The Big Short / The Revenant / Spotlight
2016 — La La Land, Moonlight / La La Land / La La Land / Moonlight
2019 — 1917 / 1917 / 1917 / Parasite

There is slightly more without DGA than with in this era. If we went back even further, we would see that there are fewer splits in the era of five and the director has much more weight to influence the Best Picture win than in the era of the expanded ballot.

The PGA doesn’t always match with the DGA or even with Best Picture either. But the key thing to know about right now is that we didn’t already see what the PGA decided. It will be the final award before Oscar voting ends. That is a powerful influencer. That is, for the voters who wait to vote until after the PGA weighs in.

Here are our predictions:

The PGA

Outstanding Theatrical Production of the Year
The Power of the Dog — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores
Belfast — Sasha Stone

Documentary Motion Picture of the Year
Summer of Soul — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores, Sasha Stone

Animated Theatrical Motion Picture of the Year
Encanto — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores, Sasha Stone

The WGA

The Writers Guild is also happening this weekend, and it’s a bear — meaning, we have been barreling towards this madness from the beginning. The strongest screenplays in the adapted category, The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter, are not WGA-eligible, which leaves room for Sian Heder to win for CODA there right in the most fertile time of Oscar voting. But CODA already won the BAFTA, and was not nominated for the USC Scripter, where The Lost Daughter won. So CODA looks like it might ride this wave on through to the Oscars.

In the original category, Belfast was the frontrunner and might still win at the Oscars, but it too was ineligible for the WGA, leaving a race there between Licorice Pizza and (I think) King Richard. The BAFTA went with Licorice Pizza, which also has a DGA nomination.

Here’s the thing: BAFTA’s screenplay winner has aligned just three times with Best Picture in their history as an Oscar precursor (since 2000), and in those cases, the screenplay also won the Oscar for Screenplay + Best Picture:

The King’s Speech
Spotlight
Parasite

They have more of a track record matching with Oscar’s Screenplay winner and not Picture. The last two years they have matched 100%.

Looking at this year so far, it’s all over the place compared to, say, a year like 2010:

Having an N/A can sometimes mess with the formula no doubt, and this would be one of those years where it might. But the BAFTA and Oscar matching up can be iffy. Probably the smart money for the WGA this Sunday is on CODA and Licorice Pizza.

Here are our predictions.

Original Screenplay:
Licorice Pizza — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores
King Richard — Sasha Stone

Adapted Screenplay:
CODA — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Sasha Stone
Dune — Marshall Flores

Here are the full charts:

The ASC

Finally, the ASC Awards will be announced this weekend as well, if things weren’t already jam packed enough. The ASC is kind of hit and miss in matching Best Cinematography. It really could go to almost any of nominees, except probably Belfast, since it does not have an Oscar nomination. That would be very rare for that to happen.

Here are our predictions for ASC:

The Power of the Dog — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye, Marshall Flores
Dune — Sasha Stone, Mark Johnson

Here are the charts:

And here are my overall predictions heading into this weekend, such as they are:

Best Picture
The Frontrunner: The Power of the Dog (Globe Picture/Director/Critics choice winner)
The Challengers: Belfast (Toronto audience winner, Globe Screenplay winner), CODA (SAG ensemble winner)

Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Adapted Screenplay
Most likely: CODA, Siân Heder (BAFTA)
Could also be: The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal (Scripter), The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion
Wild card: Drive My Car, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

Original Screenplay
Most likely: Belfast, Kenneth Branagh (Globe winner)
Could also be: Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson (challenger)
Potential spoiler: King Richard, Zach Baylin (possible)
Wild card: The Worst Person in the World, Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (potential spoiler),

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard (Globe/SAG/Critics Choice  winner)

Best Actress
Most likely: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (SAG winner)
Could also be: Kristen Stewart, Spencer (has momentum), Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (Globe winner)
Wild cards: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter, Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA (SAG/Critics Choice winner)

Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (SAG/Critics Choice/Globe winner)

Best Animated Feature
Most likely: Encanto
Could also be: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best Cinematography
Most likely: Dune, Greig Fraser
Could also be: The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner

Best Costume Design
Most likely: Cruella, Jenny Beavan
Could also be: Dune, Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira, West Side Story, Paul Tazewell

Best Documentary Feature
Most likely: Summer of Soul
Could also be: Attica, Flee

Documentary Short
Could be any of the five:
Audible
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Lead Me Home

Best Editing
Could be any of the five:
King Richard, Pamela Martin
The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras
tick, tick…BOOM! Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
Dune, Joe Walker
Don’t Look Up, Hank Corwin

International Feature
Drive My Car, Japan

Makeup and Hairstyling
Most likely: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could also be: Dune

Original Score
Most likely: Dune, Hans Zimmer
Could also be: Encanto, Germaine Franco
Long shot: The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood

Original Song
Most likely: “No Time To Die” from No Time to Die, Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Could also be: “Be Alive” from King Richard, DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
Spoiler: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
Outside shot: “Down To Joy” from Belfast, Van Morrison

Best Production Design
Most likely: Dune
Longer shot: Nightmare Alley

Best Animated Short Film
Could be any of the five:
Bestia
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Affairs of the Art
Boxballet

Best Live Action Short
Could be any of the five:
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Long Goodbye
The Dress
On My Mind
Please Hold

Best Sound
Most likely: Dune
Longer shot: West Side Story

Visual Effects
Dune