Predictions Friday — One Month Away From First Big Festival Drop

First, it should go without saying that Oscar predictions right now are like betting odds. They aren’t really substantial in any way, shape or form. There’s a pretty decent chance they do more harm than good.

The harm is they build up too-high expectations that often destroy an organic rollout of a movie. An example of an organic Best Picture winner: in 1991, I worked as a receptionist in Santa Monica. I went to see The Silence of the Lambs. I loved that movie so much I brought two different friend groups to see it two more times that same day, which means I ended up seeing it three times in one day. I’ve seen it so many times by now I can’t even really watch it anymore. I’ve worn out the groove. The Oscar favorite for Best Picture that year was Bugsy, without a doubt. That was the big prestige pic people like me now would have in our number one spot. But I thought Silence of the Lambs was better and should win.

I should add here that as a very young woman in the 1980s, my friend and I had seen and loved Chariots of Fire. We would probably have been bored by Reds. So that movie winning would have been something I would have been excited by had I been aware of the Oscars back then, which really I wasn’t.

If you imagine 1991 seen through the prism of Oscarwatchers today, you can imagine how every good movie would have been killed before we even got to the Oscars for one reason or another: too much hype, overblown expectations, too many critics picking it apart, and god only knows what scandals might have erupted.

We invented the game and in so doing we’ve very nearly destroyed the whole point of the Oscars. I say this because we have to always be aware that this is what we are doing. We can’t just blunder into it pretending we aren’t. I operate from the “first do no harm” idea of hoping to not hype movies too much. This is why Oscar predictions aren’t on the right sidebar of this site, only known Oscar contenders. These are the movies that have been seen and evaluated already.

At this stage of the game, we’ve been playing a little spitballing. That doesn’t seem to be a big deal. But when a consensus forms at this stage, that does begin to present somewhat of a problem for some movies. That’s how I see it anyway. I’m greatly looking forward to Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans. I’m nervous that pundits tend to copy each other and have the movie in their number one spot. It makes me think that movie will be preemptively harmed by that, building it up too high such that it has nowhere to go but down.

This is just the truth. I participate in the awards race (heck, I practically started it). I participate in Gold Derby. We run our own Oscar Squad. I’m not holier than thou, I promise. I’m just saying it makes me nervous at this stage to put pressure on films and performances in a way that hurts them rather than helps them. There isn’t much that can be done. I am not in control of the beast I helped create, but I do think the method of only predicting movies you’ve seen might be the better path forward. Anne Thompson and Scott Feinberg also both do this.

That said, I don’t think it necessarily makes you a better predictor. I think you can still get pretty close to right with sight-unseen predictions. But it is, perhaps, more ethical and a way to separate yourself from oddsmakers at gambling sites.

All of that said, let’s look at what we know. What is going where?

Let’s first head on over to our favorite troublemaker, Michael Patterson and see what he’s got on Telluride:

For the past several years we’ve been able to get a bead on some Telluride titles based on announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival.  That seems to remain true today as TIFF announced a slew of titles and likely there are several more to come.  Based on the TIFF premiere status descriptions of their announced films up to today we think the following films will play at The SHOW over Labor Day: weekend:

Broker
Empire of Light
Holy Spider
One Fine Morning
The Wonder
Women Talking
Good Night Oppy

And then the bad news:

Films I thought might have a shot at TFF #49 that TIFF announced this morning that will NOT be playing Telluride based on their premiere status designation:

The Son
Banshees of Inisherin
Causeway
Decision to Leave
The Eternal Daughter
The Good Nurse
Moonage Daydream
No Bears
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
Chevalier

There has been a little confusion as to The Fabelmans. I’ve heard things like maybe it will still go to Telluride, no way is it going to Telluride, then why aren’t there any gala screenings for it at Toronto, etc. Spielberg at Telluride would be a seismic event. Tributes, screenings — that would be something. But it’s not something to hang your hat on, and very likely not happening.

The date change for the Oscars due to COVID has disrupted the rhythm of the Telluride/Oscar relationship. The last Best Picture winner to play there was Moonlight in 2016. The Venice/Telluride two-step also produced The Shape of Water in 2017. But Green Book was a Toronto get, Parasite started at Cannes but did show at Telluride, and Nomadland played Telluride (but did so remotely…I think).

Last year’s winner, CODA, was a Sundance get but then mostly hid as the months passed. It was, in retrospect, a good strategy to come in at the end rather than get stale as the months wore on. September to March is seven long months. Over half a year until Oscar time. When the Oscars were held in February, it all happened too fast for any other movies to gain momentum and Venice/Telluride/Toronto hit right in the sweet spot. COVID knocked it all for a loop. This year, we don’t know how it will go.

These three movies are playing both Venice and Toronto but not Telluride:

The Whale
The Son
Banshees of Inisherin

What I am most interested in at the moment would be three films that may or may not play Telluride:

The Fabelmans
Empire of Light
White Noise

The Fabelmans and Empire of Light are going to be along the lines of Belfast or Roma. These are biopics of young men who would grow up to be filmmakers. Both films appear to be about that moment movies ignited in their hearts and minds. That’s definitely my kind of thing.

White Noise is a subject that occupies my mind — death, and all of that. Don DeLillo is a great writer, it should go without saying. How refreshing to read his novel and remember what it was like when writers were unafraid of human truths. Now, everyone is afraid. I’m looking forward to the movie.

Clayton Davis has set up his Oscar hub over at Variety and has listed his predictions there. He has for Best Picture:

The Fabelmans
Bardo
Tár
The Son
Women Talking
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Triangle of Sadness
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

He has a second tier with:

White Noise
Babylon
Top Gun: Maverick
Till
Empire of Light
She Said
Living
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Woman King
Don’t Worry Darling

It’s funny because I’d almost reverse them and put the second tier at the top to be the first tier. I think Clayton is probably right that he has Wakanda Forever in place of Top Gun as the mainstream genre pick. I think they would be fools to pass up Top Gun but we know the Academy voters hanging out in their First Class cabin.

Our Queen Anne Thompson has also listed her early predictions, but she only lists those movies she has seen as frontrunners:

Frontrunners:
“Armageddon Time”
“Elvis”
“Living”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”

(Yes, girl. You got it right there with at least two of those.)

Her next list of “contenders,” which in Anne-speak means on paper they look like the best bets:

“Amsterdam”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Babylon”
“Bardo”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Empire of Light”
“The Fabelmans”
“She Said”
“The Son”
“Tár”
“Till”
“The Whale”
“White Noise”
“The Woman King”

Yep, yep. On that SAME PAGE. I think she nailed it here, but of course, we have to narrow it to just ten.

Finally, we head on over to Erik Anderson’s page to see what he has going on for Best Picture:

The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
The Whale (A24)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

Both Erik and Clayton have Everything, Everywhere All At Once. I think that is probably a stronger contender than it might seem, then again it could have come out too early. That Anne doesn’t have it on her list makes me wonder if she might think it’s just too much for Academy voters, and indeed, it might be.

Well, my friends, that is all I have for you today. We keep our eyes, minds and hearts open to the possibilities. That’s all we can do at the moment.

Putting all of these things together, a gun to my head list would look like this, starting with what I know and working back to what I don’t yet know:

Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Empire of Light
Babylon
Avatar: The Way of Water
She Said
Bardo
Till
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
On the edge: White Noise, The Woman King, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Now, if our lineup has Elvis, Top Gun, Avatar, and Wakanda Forever? I will have no choice but to proclaim the Oscars are back, baby. They are BACK. Now we’re cooking with gas. Those ratings will rise, Ray, especially if we get a hunk-a-hunk of burning love…just saying!