2023 Oscar Predictions: All Quiet on the Best Picture Front

For the first time in a long time, the Oscars this year have a chance to be big again, or at least bigger than before. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting, which is an optimistic move to remember the Oscar days of old, before they became more about absolving our collective sins than putting on a good show. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will open big this weekend, aiming for a $200 mil haul. Avatar is coming. Babylon is screening. And there is still the movie of the year to most people in this country — Top Gun: Maverick.

Like everything else in America, the Oscars were paralyzed by fear and self-doubt after the summer of 2020, such that no white man has won either Best Director or Best Picture since. Imagine having a mass hysteria episode that revolved around the achievement of white men. We all lived through it. We all know why it happened. We know the history. We know what came before. The question that remains is whether we are through it or whether we’re not. If we are through it, then there won’t be a desire to vote in ways that reflect activism more than preference or taste.

Now that the midterms didn’t bring the Handmaid’s Tale dystopia (as many on the Left thought it might), there might not be as much mass panic as there might have been otherwise. But that doesn’t mean politics won’t still be infused throughout film awards — they will be. Actors dominate the Oscars, and activism dominates actors.

When thinking about Best Picture, you have to imagine how many people will choose a film as their number one of the year, and why they do that. Many will want to do something “good” with their vote rather than pick the best movie. They will still want to send a message about who they are and what they stand for.

That impetus will propel films like Women Talking, Till, and She Said more than it will films that aren’t sending a message but are just great, like All Quiet on the Western Front or Top Gun: Maverick. But there will have to be voters who will climb out of that “good people doing good things” suit and pick the movies that truly are high achievements — like All Quiet on the Western Front or Top Gun: Maverick. You get the idea.

All Quiet on the Western Front would be the “International Feature” selection that has hit the Best Picture race for a while now, with Parasite being the first winner. But it is also the kind of epic Oscar voters, in the past at least, couldn’t resist (remember that a prior adaptation of All Quiet won Best Picture 90 years ago). What I love about it is that it makes so many of our problems right now — problems that seem like the end of the world — look appropriately puny compared to that war. It’s also just dazzlingly brilliant in every frame. It’s a masterpiece. It can’t be called anything else.

Speaking of masterpieces, The Fabelmans was apparently well received at the AFI Fest, according to Anne Thompson. There was applause throughout and a warm reception at the film’s end. The Banshees of Inersherin is showing box office appeal in limited release and is, I think, among the very best films of the year. Both should have no problem dominating once we move past the film critics awards phase, which comes up in the next month.

There are some rumblings about Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio making a play for a Best Picture nomination for Netflix. Variety’s Clayton Davis has a nice piece about his daughter wanting it to win Best Picture.

Anne Thompson has Pinocchio on her frontrunners list (though she declines to put down movies she hasn’t seen):

Frontrunners (alpha order):
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“TÁR”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“The Woman King”
“Women Talking”

Her second tier list:
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Babylon”
“Empire of Light”
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“She Said”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“Till”

Nominations for the Spirit Awards and the Gothams come at the end of November. Then come the big guns and the start of “Phase 1”:

New York Film Critics Circle — December 2
National Board of Review announces — December 8
Los Angeles Film Critics announces — December 11
Golden Globes nominations — December 12

The critics have more influence now because there are so many of them and they cross over into Oscar punditry and voting even, as with the Critics Choice Awards. They also exist in the same bubble as Oscar voters do now, what with the economy of going to the movies mostly taken out.

The critics will likely be very supportive of TAR, which seems to be their favorite so far. In general, they tend to resist what they think are “Oscar movies.” Then again, they are also heavily and emotionally invested in what gets nominated and have been known to throw more than a fit or two when Oscar voters step out of line.

The two announcements that seem to be most in line with the ultimate Oscar lineup would be AFI and Critics Choice. AFI should be announced early, too, sometime in December. The AFI list will be a good way to see where Top Gun will land. If they name it (and they absolutely should) then we know it will be taken seriously.

Here are this week’s predictions, with charts of past years to follow:

Best Picture
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
TÁR
Women Talking
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front

Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water, Glass Onion, She Said, The Son, The Whale, Emancipation, Empire of Light, The Woman King

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Alt: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere; Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Will Smith, Emancipation
Bill Nighy, Living
Alt: Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Alt: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Viola Davis, The Woman King; Zoe Kazan, She Said

Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Alt: Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion; Hong Chau, The Whale; Laura Dern, The Son

Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Babylon
Alt: Empire of Light, Elvis

Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
She Said
Glass Onion
The Whale
The Son

Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inersherin
The Fabelmans
Babylon
Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water

Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
Bardo
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, All Quiet on the Western Front, Empire of Light

Sound
Top Gun Maverick
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water

Production Design
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans

Costumes
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Babylon

Documentary Feature
In Her Hands
Goodnight Oppy
Sidney
Fire of Love
Icarus: The Aftermath
Alt: Riotsville, USA; SR.

And now, the charts: