2023 Oscar Predictions – Is Best Actress Settled or Wide Open?

In the Oscar punditry world, we have our own version of “if you know, you know.” That means we put everything together, based on all the precedents that have proven reliable in the past, and come up with a conclusion that makes sense. The factors that decide this vary. It can sometimes be that someone has given an unequivocally superb performance, head and shoulders above the nearest rivals. It’s a performance that’s so good no one will dispute the win — like Helen Mirren in The Queen.

Sometimes overdue status helps drive a consensus accord among pundits regarding which actress should win. We saw that with Glenn Close and The Wife. Although she lost to Olivia Colman because The Favourite came equipped with important “top of the ticket” nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. The Wife did not have that buttress. The only thing that would have handed Close the win would have been love for her personally or love for her character.

Recently, identity has come strongly into play as Hollywood and the Oscars have fundamentally altered how they decide who should win awards. Readers of this site know that this was the main focus of conversation starting just before Halle Berry and Denzel Washington won in the lead categories 2001.

It quieted down for a while but then roared back to life around 2012, or 2013, especially so after the #oscarssowhite hashtag started a mini-revolution. Since Halle Berry won in 2001, no Black actress has won in the category.

In general, Best Actress is not about transformative works. Frances McDormand won for Nomadland, I think, based on these three key conditions:

Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie

This year, at first, it seemed like the consensus would be that Michelle Yeoh was destined to win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. If that is indeed wat transpires, it will be for several reasons, the first being how overdue she is for recognition. The second, the movie, is a phenomenon. Third, she will make history as the first Asian actress to win in the lead.

https://youtu.be/pPoYhwaZ9rg

But then Cate Blanchett appeared in TÁR, which quickly became a critics’ darling. And that has tilted the consensus among many pundits in her favor. She is likely to dominate the critics’ awards as a result. She could ride that wave all the way to her third Oscar win.

For both Everything Everywhere and TÁR they are expected to be nominated across the board at the top of the ticket, which means a win in the Best Actress category could mean the one big win for the movie.

But both of these movies might hit a snag in the “likability of role/likability of movie” because they are both complex performances in films that aren’t exactly easy sits, depending on the mindset of each individual viewer.

We don’t yet know how the Academy will respond to them overall. We think we know, but we don’t know.

Much easier option to make that call would be Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. She meets all three conditions for star/role/movie. The Fabelmans is a warm-hearted, likable movie across the board, and you might easily fall in love with the character she plays.

Her only obstacle is that Best Actress, like Best Actor, doesn’t usually go with a Best Picture win. So if you’re predicting The Fabelmans to win the top prize, Williams might be less likely to land. Nomadland was the first Best Actress winner since 2004’s Million Dollar Baby to win both Picture and Actress. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. It’s just that voters tend to spread wealth.

Another big challenger in this category and a formidable contender is Danielle Deadwyler in Till. The film will likely be well received across the board. She has the likeability of role factor in ways that can’t be matched by anyone else, that’s for sure. The Oscar team must work hard to ensure she’s well-known by the end of the Oscar season. She isn’t a known name heading in, so that will be the challenge if they want to bring in a win.

There’s nobody hotter than Margot Robbie right now, so she has “likability of star” locked in and might present the only real challenge to Cate Blanchett, who also has “likability of star” locked in. We don’t yet know what people will make of Babylon overall. Many will be seeing it next week.

Viola Davis has a strong shot at a nomination for The Woman King, given that she received such great reviews. She has “likability of star” and “likability of movie,” but when it comes to the role she plays there is a slight caveat in that the film has received some dissection in the press of late of about what the story leaves out. If Davis rises in the race, that conversation could get louder. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t. Either way, she is an American treasure, the movie is very well-liked, and Davis is overdue for a Lead Actress win.

Olivia Colman gives probably the best performance of her career in Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light. Because a handful of disgruntled critics stomped all over it out of Telluride it seems to have lost some momentum, or presumed momentum as the case may be, but the film and Colman’s chances can always be revived if she is nominated at SAG or the Globes. It is one of a handful of films, like The Fabelmans, that is a tribute to movies in movie theaters and why they matter, maybe now more than ever.

Let’s take a quick look at Best Actress in the era of the expanded ballot:

(bold obviously indicates a Best Picture nomination, and bold wine indicates a Best Picture winner)

2009 — Sandra Bullock, the Blind Side
2010 — Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 — Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 — Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 — Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 — Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 — Brie Larson, Room
2016 — Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 — Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
2018 — Olivia Colman, The Favourite
2019 — Renee Zellweger, Judy
2020 — Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2021 — Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye

More often than not, the winner is in a Best Picture nominee, but very rarely in a winner.

Here are the number of Best Picture nominees with accompanying Lead Actress nominees:

2009–2/10
2010–3/10
2011–1/9
2012–4/9 <—tied for the most
2013–3/9
2014–1/8
2015–2/8
2016–1/9
2017–4/9 <–tied for the most
2018–3/8
2019–2/9
2020–2/8
2021–0/10 <—the least

Let’s head over to Gold Derby to see what their Odds and Rankings are for Best Actress:

The odds and rankings look like this:

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Ana de Armas, Blonde

Next, let’s look at Erik Anderson on Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody
___
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Zoe Kazan – She Said
Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse
Rooney Mara – Women Talking
Florence Pugh – The Wonder
Taylor Russell – Bones and All
Tang Wei – Decision to Leave
Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling
Zar Emir Ebrahimi – Holy Spider
Mia Goth – Pearl

And now, looking at our superstar at Gold Derby, Joyce Eng’s top five:

Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Nearly all of the experts at Gold Derby have Cate Blanchett as frontrunner for TÁR in this category.

But one thing to know about Best Actress. All five are rarely in Best Picture nominees. It has never happened in the era of the expanded ballot. That might help when it comes to predicting Best Picture.

With all of this said, my predictions, for now, are as follows: