2023 Oscar Predictions: What We Can Learn from New York

The first major awards were announced this morning when the New York Film Critics handed out their half-predictable, half-unpredictable awards. The trick is to figure out how they’ll be tastemakers and how they’ll be unicorns. For instance, Keke Palmer was recognized in the supporting category, which gives a nice boost to Nope. Nope is among only a tiny handful of movies that made over $100 million this year at the box office, especially dramas that weren’t franchise or superhero movies.

But the big question here is how NYFCC’s pick for Best Director will fare in the race. S. S. Rajamouli won for RRR, which has become a favorite among film critics and bloggers. There has been a big push to get the film recognized so people will see it. This big movie is the “little movie that could,” especially since India, amazingly, did not select it for their International Feature submission at the Oscars. But word of mouth — pure love — is keeping it alive.

The Critical Drinker went to bat for it:

From the LA Times:

“RRR” was released in March and became one of India’s highest-grossing movies of all time, taking in $140 million worldwide, including $14.5 million in the United States. A version dubbed into Hindi arrived on Netflix in May. (The movie’s original language is Telugu.) Enthusiasm for it grew over the summer, with filmmakers like James Gunn and Scott Derrickson discovering it and sharing their love on social media.

When India bypassed “RRR” as its official selection for the international feature film Oscar in September, its team shifted strategy, deciding to go for broke and chase a best picture nomination. There’s also a justified push to get the music branch to nominate “Naatu Naatu” for original song, recognition that would have precedent as songs not in the English language have been recognized — and won — in the past. (The Hindi song “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” won the Oscar in 2009.)

The Oscars could do worse than choosing a movie like this, especially if it goes along with Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar, etc. That could make for a very spectacular Oscars. Put it this way — there’s a reason Bollywood movies do as well as they do in a country that often struggles with poverty, class wars, etc. That said, RRR isn’t a Bollywood movie, it’s a “Tollywood” movie, meaning it’s a film in the Telugu language. So that’s an extra hurdle when it comes to Best Picture but it’s not an impossible one, after Parasite.

RRR should have been included in my “Oscar Movies Oscar Season Forgot” post — but the truth is, it hasn’t been forgotten. It has many advocates pushing it into the race. Whether that will make a difference — who knows. For now, I’m not quite sure what to do with it, but if it starts picking up other awards — well, maybe it will find its way in. It only needs a few hundred people to make it their number one movie to get in for Best Pic.

Marshall’s handy chart shows us how the New York Film Critics, who announce very early, influence or predict the Oscars in the major categories:

Last year, NYFCC picked The Power of the Dog for Director and Drive My Car for Picture. We should be so lucky if the critics pick RRR as their Drive My Car for this year (which maybe they just did?). This year, they went for TAR in Best Picture, with S. S. Rajamouli for Director. Then they went with Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Colin Farrell for Best Actor, Keke Palmer for Supporting Actress, and Ke Huy Quan for Supporting Actor.

We haven’t done a comparison chart with the NYFCC for the acting categories, but I’d say it is fairly in line with the chart above, i.e., better for nominations than it is for winners, with a few exceptions.

In Supporting Actress, Laura Dern for Marriage Story, Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk, Patricia Arquette for Boyhood, and Melissa Leo for The Fighter are the recent winners that went all the way to the Oscar.

For Best Actor, Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, and Colin Firth for The King’s Speech matched. For Best Actress, Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine and Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady are NYFCC winners that matched.

Supporting Actor has the most overlap, with Mahershala Ali for Moonlight, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, JK Simmons for Whiplash, Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club, Christoph Walz for Inglorious Basterds.

In all, Ke Huy Quan and Keke Palmer probably got the biggest boost today, besides RRR.

Erik Anderson finally updated his Best Picture predictions for end of November. Pre-New York, here is how he saw it:

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
5. TÁR (Focus Features)
6. Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
7. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
8. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
10. The Whale (A24) ↓

11. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↑
13. The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↑
14. Decision to Leave (MUBI)
15. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
16. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↓
17. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↑
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
19. Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
20. She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓

Now, let’s look at Gold Derby’s collective odds for top 20 most likely:

The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
TAR
Babylon
The Whale
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Woman King
She Said
Glass Onion
Triangle of Sadness
All Quiet on the Western Front
Pinocchio
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Empire of Light

The first three are the same, then they start to split up.

Does New York’s announcement change this in any way? Not really. They picked TAR for Best Picture and that movie seems to be a solid contender.

The next big awards day will be The National Board of Review on December 8th. Then December 11 for the Los Angeles Film Critics, followed by the Golden Globe nominations on December 12.

The AFI is landing somewhere in here and eventually we’ll be slowly filling out our big chart for this year. The last two years looked like this:

The AFI is incredibly influential since we’re in a ten-movie year, not a five-movie year. The Critics Choice and the PGA also can sometimes be influential.

So let’s get to our predictions, shall we?

Best Picture:
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
TÁR
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Glass Onion
The Woman King
Avatar: The Way of Water

My next tier:
All Quiet on the Western Front
RRR
Empire of Light
Triangle of Sadness
She Said
Nope
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Bardo
13 Lives
The Whale

SAG Ensemble Predictions:
Women Talking
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion
Till 
Alt: The Woman King; Everything Everywhere All At Once; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front or S. S. Rajamouli, RRR

Alt: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere; Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

DGA Predictions:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actor:
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Alt: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Margot Robbie, Babylon

Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Keke Palmer, Nope
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Jean Smart, Babylon; Carey Mulligan, She Said; Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion; Hong Chau, The Whale; Laura Dern, The Son

Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Brad Pitt, Babylon; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TÁR
Elvis
Alt: Babylon, Vengeance, Empire of Light

Adapted Screenplay:
Women Talking
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Son

Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Alt: The Banshees of Inersherin

Cinematography:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Alt: Bardo, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light

Sound:
Top Gun Maverick
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front

Production Design:
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans

Costumes:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Alt: Living

Documentary Feature:
In Her Hands
Goodnight Oppy
Sidney
Fire of Love
Icarus: The Aftermath
Alt: Riotsville, USA; SR.

That’s all I got for now. Have a great weekend. Until next week.