2023 Oscar Predictions – Best Picture Begins to Take Shape

The Golden Globes will announce their award nominations on Monday. That might shake up the race a bit compared to what we know now. But we have two big clues with the data dump of the National Board of Review and AFI’s Top Ten of the year. Both of these groups get close to matching the Oscars, with AFI having the edge most years.

In the current era of expanded Best Picture lineup (2009-2021), only twice did all films that were listed by both the NBR and AFI also make Best Picture at the Oscars, in 2009 and 2012.

What these two years have in common is that they were driven by a frontrunner that would end up winning in the major categories. Argo obviously had a cleaner shot, but The Hurt Locker was solid after the Golden Globes.

Every other year there have been films that were named on both lists but didn’t go all the way, like 2018 and 2020:

How many movies missed both of these lists and still ended up in Best Picture?

2021: Drive My Car
2020: The Father
2018: Bohemian Rhapsody
2017: Darkest Hour
2016: Lion
2015: The Revenant, Brooklyn
2013: Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena
2012: Amour
2011: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
2009: The Blind Side, District 9

It’s a fairly minimal list. Most Best Picture nominees were named on least one, many on both. Those that showed up later likely did so driven by the actors in most cases. Put that together with how rare it is for all of those that showed up on both lists to get in, and you can see that there could be some surprises in store, even for films that seem like sure bets.

In general, it never hurts to follow the actors. The Blind Side, Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody were all films with acting frontrunners in them.

We don’t know what kind of a year this will be, but so far, this is how it is shaping up:

Looking at this list, I notice the absence of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which many thought had a shot. There is also no Babylon.

The films that have the best shot to be plucked from these two lists are those with acting frontrunners in them:

TAR
Elvis
Till

After that, you get the ones that might have a shot, depending on what the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and the Producers Guild do:

Glass Onion
She Said
Nope

And finally, the longest shots:

RRR
Aftersun

Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water are the two that may not have acting frontrunners. Maybe Tom Cruise gets in, and if so, this is moot (obviously), but Avatar won’t have any acting nominees. The rest of them all have acting frontrunners:

The Fabelmans — Michelle Williams, Paul Dano
The Banshees of Inisherin — Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon, Barry Keoghan
Everything Everywhere — Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu
The Woman King — Viola Davis
Women Talking — Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Rooney Mara, Ben Whishaw

So I would bet that these films all have the best shot at Best Picture. But at the moment, both Top Gun and Avatar also seem like strong contenders. At the moment, we have to keep our predictions holding the line with this being a year where all of the films on both lists get in by the end.

We’re still in the nominations phase of the Best Picture race. It is too soon to name a frontrunner. We just have to see how it lays out, but I would not exclude Avatar just because it doesn’t have acting nominations. Its scope, its emotional content, and how much money it will make will all come into play. For now, I’ve moved it to the number two spot but we’ll see how it goes.

We will revisit all of this after Monday’s Globes announcement, but here is this week’s predictions:

Best Picture:
The Fabelmans (AFI/NBR)
Avatar: The Way of Water (AFI/NBR)
The Banshees of Inisherin (AFI/NBR)
Women Talking (AFI/NBR)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (AFI/NBR)
Top Gun: Maverick (AFI/NBR)
The Woman King (AFI/NBR)
Elvis (AFI)
TÁR (AFI)
Nope (AFI)

My next tier:
Babylon
Glass Onion (NBR)
RRR (NBR)
She Said (AFI)
Empire of Light
Aftersun (NBR)
Triangle of Sadness
All Quiet on the Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Bardo
13 Lives
The Whale

SAG Ensemble Predictions:
Women Talking
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Woman King
Alt: Till, Babylon, Glass Onion, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere

Alt: Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King; Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front; S. S. Rajamouli, RRR

DGA Predictions:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actor:
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Alt: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Margot Robbie, Babylon

Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Jean Smart, Babylon; Keke Palmer, Nope; Carey Mulligan, She Said;  Hong Chau, The Whale; Laura Dern, The Son

Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Brad Pitt, Babylon; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TÁR
Elvis
Alt: Armageddon Time, Babylon, Vengeance, Empire of Light

Adapted Screenplay:
Women Talking
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Son

Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inersherin
Alt: Elvis, Babylon

Cinematography:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Bardo
Alt: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light

Sound:
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front

Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans

Costumes:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Alt: Living

Visual Effects:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Alt: Everything Everywhere All at Once; RRR; Beast; Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Documentary Feature:
In Her Hands
Goodnight Oppy
Sidney
Fire of Love
Icarus: The Aftermath
Alt: Riotsville, USA; SR.