2023 Oscar Predictions – Between the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice

Now that we’ve seen the winners of the Golden Globes, we might have a frontrunner situation in two of the supporting acting categories. That is unless Michelle Williams decides to be placed in the Supporting Actress category, as some might suggest. It’s unclear whether that would help her chances as a nominee now without that SAG nomination. The SAG nominating committee is always a randomly chosen group, and one never knows what their particular tastes are, what films they will respond to. They seemed to like The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything, Everywhere All at Once.

The entire membership selects the SAG ensemble ballot, roughly 100K voters. Theoretically, the vote could be split, allowing a third film to win. I think some vote splitting went on in 2019 between The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which allowed Parasite to rise. But it’s not clear whether that happens this year, or if one will run away with it (or not).

It does seem that the online chatter is in favor of Everything, Everywhere All at Once, at least on Film Twitter. But we don’t yet know how the big guilds will vote. We can look at the past but that’s all we can do.

Best Picture

The Globes winners matching with Best Picture is hit and miss. The Fabelmans, however, also has the Toronto Audience Award, which puts it in frontrunner status, even if Spielberg missed on the BAFTA long list. It feels to me like there are four potential winners for Best Picture:

The Fablemans — the Globes winner for Best Drama and Director/TIFF audience award
Everything Everywhere — inventive, strong box office, and inclusive.
The Banshees of Inisherin — the Globes winner for Best Comedy.
Top Gun: Maverick — for many, the movie of the year.

Because these are going to be the strongest films heading into the Oscars (most likely), they’ll probably going to split up the awards. Right now, we see it like this:

Original Screenplay: Banshees
Director: Spielberg
Adapted Screenplay: ?
Actress/Supporting Actor: EEAAO

Whatever takes that Adapted Screenplay win has a shot at Best Picture and the only one of those four competing in that category is Top Gun: Maverick. Women Talking was once seen as the frontrunner to win that. It still might be true even if it isn’t showing up as strongly as Top Gun. Who knows.

Best Actor

Although no one wants to talk about the Oscars, vis a vis the death of Lisa Marie Presley, I’m not sure anyone but Austin Butler can win. He gives a strong performance as Elvis but the sentiment/emotional factor will drive that win and possibly other wins for the film. Everyone on Twitter is waiting for someone to write about this so they can condemn them as terrible people, but I am not sure how we can avoid talking about it. Best Actor was down to three options: Brendan Fraser in The Whale (which just earned a Producers Guild nomination), Austin Butler in Elvis (Golden Globes), and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s incredibly competitive, but at this point, you have to figure out that Butler has it.

Best Actress

This race remains incredibly competitive. Michelle Yeoh was at the Golden Globes, whereas Cate Blanchett was not. Yeoh’s speech, however, was not quite what you want to see with a win like that. Ke Huy Quan’s win was exactly why people watch award shows. They watch them to feel good, to feel happy about someone winning. If the speech isn’t as moving, it can sometimes shift the win in a different direction. People just do the best they can when they get to the mic. It’s their moment. They can say what they want, but in general, we like to see people who are thrilled to win. If that emotion isn’t conveyed it can sometimes leave room for another person to win it.

Because voters like to split the vote with the major categories, it’s doubtful Everything Everywhere can win Best Actress, Supporting Actor, AND Best Picture and Director. Those kinds of sweeps don’t happen anymore. More likely, the two actors would win, and another film would win Best Picture. Or it would win Best Picture and Blanchett wins Best Actress. Either way, Quan has the win.

At this point, we have to wait to see who wins the SAG, and that should tell us where the Oscar will go.

That brings us to the Critics Choice, which will be held this Sunday. We will be posting our predictions tomorrow. But it does seem like, considering the high number of Film Twitter people in the group, Everything Everywhere All At Once can’t lose.

But for now, here are this week’s predictions:

Best Picture
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
TÁR
All Quiet the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Next tier:
Glass Onion
The Whale
The Woman King
RRR
She Said
Till
Babylon

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Todd Field, TÁR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Alt: Joseph Kozinski, Top Gun Maverick; Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King; S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Alt: Viola Davis, The Woman King; Margot Robbie, Babylon

Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Hong Chau, The Whale
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion
Alt. Jamie Lee Curtis, EEAAO

Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Alt: Val Kilmer, Top Gun Maverick; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
TÁR
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
Alt: Aftersun; Armageddon Time

Adapted Screenplay:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Women Talking
She Said
The Whale

Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis

Cinematography:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Empire of Light
The Banshees of Inisherin

Sound:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans

Costume Design:
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
The Fabelmans

International Feature:
Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, Argentina, 1985
South Korea, Decision to Leave
Belgium, Close
Mexico, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Original Score:
Women Talking
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin

Visual Effects:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Song
Top Gun
RRR
Wakanda Forever
GDT’s Pinoccio
Till

Animated Feature
GDT’s Pinocchio
Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
Turning Red
Puss in Boots
Wendell and Wild

Doc Feature
All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Descendent
Fire of Love
All that Breathes
Navalny