2023 Oscar Predictions — What the BAFTA Long Lists Tell Us, and What They Don’t

One of the biggest bummers about the Oscar race of late (and almost everyone would agree with this) is how people feel they must rush to the most extreme conclusion and make “the call” based on whatever intel is provided to them. If a movie misses with the Gothams, that’s the end of the world. No Golden Globe nomination? Forget it, they can’t win. And now, with the BAFTAs, everyone is jumping to conclusions about some movies based on how the BAFTA longlists came down.

The problem with making any bold predictions based on these longlists is simply that we don’t actually KNOW how they came down. We think we do based on which films placed in the major categories. But ultimately, we can’t say things like “this means so and so won’t win.” That takes it too far. It might show weakness with the BAFTA voters, but that isn’t the end of the story. Not when they have select committees making things more “fair and equitable.”

The BAFTAs only started the committees after the protests in the summer of 2020. 2021, 2022 and now 2023 have had longlists influenced by committees of varying degrees for the acting and directing categories. Last year, CODA made the longlist for Best Film and Director but didn’t end up with a nomination by the BAFTA in either category, then proceeded to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

At the moment, Film Twitter is declaring The Fabelmans over after having anointed it as the frontrunner early on, then setting expectations too high and then pretending that when it doesn’t land with the requisite nominations, it is somehow the movie’s fault. Isn’t it the fault of what we do? I think it is.

We shouldn’t decide the Oscars, that’s for sure, but also films should be allowed to bloom organically with audiences and voters before we declare them the winners of everything. How many years will we go through this before we figure out how NOT to build up expectations only to tear them back down?

I personally believe that early awards can help but not hurt. What if we all had thought CODA missing in Best Film and Director at the BAFTAs meant it couldn’t win? Well, it did win. The race is fluid, not static. It can change depending on how time winds around it.

So what can we glean from these longlists? We only have two years of precedent to go by with the new system in place, meaning — they’ve changed the voting, they’ve changed the number of ultimate nominees. But judging by those two years, our Best Director list will come from their longlist. Maybe Best Picture too, maybe not. I have not yet dug into the acting or screenwriting categories yet. This is what Pic and Director look like:

As you can see, Another Round made the longlist and did well with BAFTA nominations, but did not end up with a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. That might be due to the ranked-choice ballot.

Looking over this year’s longlists and, with Marshall Flores’ help, figuring out which movies they liked best on the whole is not hard. Judging by the number of nominations, it seems clear that they:

Absolutely love without question:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Top Gun Maverick

They really really like:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TAR
Aftersun
Triangle of Sadness
The Fablemans

And crafts wise, they really seem to appreciate:
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
The Batman
Babylon

And the rest they’re just so-so on. BAFTA’s beating hearts really seem divided between All Quiet on the Western Front and Banshees of Inisherin. I really wonder how that will play out. I also wonder if Austin Butler may take the lead and win Best Actor, considering how much they love Elvis. I still feel torn between his performance and Brendan Fraser’s for the win. Then again, Colin Farrell is also in line to win considering how much they love THAT movie.

So here we are. We have a wide-open Oscar race that really seems to be ignoring much of the punditry class when it comes to the movies industry voters like best so far. For instance, All Quiet on the Western Front — as we’ve been saying for quite some time — is a masterpiece. It is easily one of the best films of the year. This strong showing at BAFTA and with the Oscars own shortlists seems to indicate it will be, and should be, a major contender.

Ultimately, I would caution against reading too much into what they didn’t like and focus instead on what they DID like.

Best Picture

These seem fairly safe, given everything we’ve seen thus far:
The Banshees of Inisherin
All Quiet the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
The Fabelmans
TÁR

That leaves us with three extra places and we have to try to figure out what would motivate Oscar voters to push movies into the race. They’re going to be motivated, I think, to push women and artists of color into the race. The question is, which one gets in. Aftersun? Women Talking? The Woman King? She Said? Till?

Women Talking — two supporting actress nominations, screenplay, plus heavy hitters backing it
Avatar: The Way of Water — box office, plus Jim Cameron
The Woman King — lead actress, plus crafts, heavy hitters backing it
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — box office, supporting actress, crafts
She Said — timely subject matter, Carrie Mulligan in supporting, screenplay
The Glass Onion — might have a SAG ensemble nomination, Janelle Monae looks strong for supporting
Till — lead actress performance, plus heavy hitters backing it, plus important historical aspect

Given all of that, I will go with the following three to round out Best Picture:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Till
Women Talking

My top ten would then look like this:

Best Picture
Top Gun: Maverick
The Banshees of Inisherin
All Quiet the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Avatar: The Way of Water
Till
Women Talking

My next tier:
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion
The Woman King
RRR
She Said
Till
Babylon
Empire of Light

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Todd Field, TÁR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Alt: Joseph Kozinski, Top Gun Maverick; Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King; S. S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Alt: Viola Davis, The Woman King; Margot Robbie, Babylon

Supporting Actress:
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Claire Foy, Women Talking

Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Val Kilmer, Top Gun Maverick; Brad Pitt, Babylon; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
TÁR
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
Alt: Armageddon Time, Babylon, Vengeance, Empire of Light

Adapted Screenplay:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Women Talking
She Said
The Whale

Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis

Cinematography:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Empire of Light
The Banshees of Inisherin

Sound:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans

Costume Design:
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
The Fabelmans

International Feature:
Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, Argentina, 1985
South Korea, Decision to Leave
Belgium, Close
Mexico, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Makeup and Hairstyling:
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis

Original Score:
Women Talking
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin

Visual Effects:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Song
Top Gun
RRR
Wakanda Forever
GDT’s Pinoccio
Till

Animated Feature
GDT’s Pinocchio
Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
Turning Red
Puss in Boots
Wendell and Wild

Doc Feature
All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Descendent
Fire of Love
All that Breathes
Navalny

Here is a lovely chart, courtesy of Marshall Flores of the longlist big gets: