Good As Gold: Final 2023 Oscar Predictions Manifesto

Another year, another run through the film awards gauntlet. While the Good As Gold column has not been as prominent this year as I had hoped, I have still been very actively tracking the progress of the awards race on the individual Good As Gold pages. I got off to a slow start after missing the film festival season due to personal reasons, and by the time I caught up on most of the big contenders we were already knee-deep in the race. With apologies to Sasha and the crew at Awards Daily, I will be more consistent with coverage next season.

Last year, in more simpler times, I broke down the method I use to predict Oscar nominations. While you can find a more detailed version here, there are three major pillars to my approach:

Pillar One: Data Analysis – Using statistics and historic outcomes to identify a trend or tendency that we might not have connected otherwise
Pillar Two: Cultural zeitgeist – How do the awards reflect the era we live in today?
Pillar Three: Gut instinct – Intuition that comes from years of Oscar-watching/predicting

There is a fourth component that others in the industry are privy to that I am not: Pillar Four: Conversations with voting members of AMPAS. Due to small sample sizes, this can be the most volatile of information to base a decision on.

Data analysis is the biggest factor behind my reasoning. I have long been a student of Oscar history and love to know little tidbits of trivia. For example, knowing that the Producers Guild (PGA) has matched the Oscar for Best Picture in 23 of its 33 years (including 12 of the last 15) might help you predict the Oscar race. Knowing further that since the Academy moved to a preferential balloting system – one that’s similar to that used by PGA – the two have matched winners 10 out of 13 years.

As much as I love looking over nearly a century’s worth of results to make a prediction, it has become increasingly clearer that we are in a new era of Academy voting. The preferential ballot was reintroduced in 2009. AMPAS used this method of voting previously from 1934 to 1945. On top of this new way of tabulating votes, the Academy has spent the last decade reshaping its membership to become younger, more diverse, and more globally inclusive. The results of these changes show up in several ways. A few examples of the impact of these changes might include what we’ve seen in the Director field the last four years. In that time, we have seen four directors of non-English speaking films nominated for Best Director. You’d have to add up the previous 14 years of Oscar to get four nominated directors of non-English speaking films (and one of those is a stretch: Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima; 15 years if you don’t want to count that one).

It’s little stats and factoids like this that make the Oscar race so fun to follow. While there are variations in the methodology that pundits use, my approach has led to rather successful results over the years (I outscored all Gold Derby pundits with Oscar nomination predictions last year, for example).

If you want to cut to the chase, you can see my final predictions in all 23 categories here. For those more interested in the breakdown, I have provided a little of my thought process below.

PICTURE

I feel really good about the top six films getting in (citations listed after each film, bold signifies winner):

Everything Everywhere All At Once (EEAAO) – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTA; PGA; DGA; SAG; CDG; MUAH; ADG; SDSA; CSA; MPSE; SCL; LA; AFI; NBR; Gothams; Spirits; DiscFilm; Satellites; NYFCO; Vegas; AAFCA; St.L; D.C.; SEFC; Chic; PhxCC; FL; PhilCC; NTX; Utah; AACTA; OAFFC; BosOn; IFJA; Phx; DFW; London; NC; GWNY; FLFCC; BFCC; AWFJ; UK; ColOH; MCFCA; SD; OFCC; SF; CenFL; GA; Sea; ChicInd; Iowa; Hou; Den; Haw; GALECA; OFCS;
The Banshees of Inisherin – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTA; PGA; DGA; SAG; CSA; MPSE; SCL; AFI; NBR; NYFCO; Satellites; Vegas; St.L; D.C.; SEFC; Chic; PhxCC; NTX; BosOn; AACTA; OAFFC; IFJA; Phx; DFW; London; NC; GWNY; AWFJ; UK; ColOH; MCFCA; SD; OFCC; SF; GA; Sea; ChicInd; Iowa; Hou; Den; GALECA; OFCS;
The Fabelmans – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTALongList; PGA; DGA; SAG; CSA; ADG; SDSA; VES; AFI; NBR; TIFF; DiscFilm; Satellites; NYFCO; Vegas; D.C.; SEFC; PhxCC; FL; NTX; BosOn; Phx; DFW; London; NC; GWNY; AWFJ; ColOH; MCFCA; SD; OFCC; SF; GA; Sea; ChicInd; Hou; GALECA; OFCS;
TÁR – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTA; PGA; DGA; CDG; CSA; ADG; SDSA; MPSE; LA; AFI; NSFC; MVFF; Gothams; Spirits; DiscFilm; Satellites; NYFCO; D.C.; SEFC; Chic; PhxCC; FL; BosOn; IFJA; Phx; DFW; London; NC; GWNY; AWFJ; ColOH; MCFCA; SD; OFCC; SF; GA; Sea; ChicInd; Iowa; Hou; Den; GALECA; OFCS;
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTALongList; PGA; DGA; CDG; CAS; ASC; CSA; ADG; MPSE; VES; SCL; SDSA; Scripter; AFI; NBR; DiscFilm; Satellites; NYFCO; D.C.; SEFC; Utah; AACTA; BosOn; IFJA; Phx; DFW; London; NC; GWNY; BFCC; UK; MCFCA; OFCC; CenFL; GA; Sea; ChicInd; Hou; OFCS;
Elvis – CCA; Globes; HCA; BAFTA; PGA; CDG; MUAH; CAS; ASC; CSA; ADG; SDSA; MPSE; AFI; Satellites; St.L; AACTA; MCFCA; SD; Hou;

While I feel good about all six, I think we can break the race into tiers at the moment.

TIER ONE:

The top three hit on just about every guild precursor you’d want to see for a Best Picture contender: Producers (PGA), Directors (DGA), and Actors (SAG Ensemble). Banshees and Fabelmans won Best Picture at the Golden Globes (Comedy and Drama, respectively), and split the awards for Director and Screenplay there. EEAAO stormed back sweeping those three main categories at the Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA). Banshees and EEAAO performed very well with BAFTA noms. Fabelmans did far less than Spielberg fans might have hoped for (the legend didn’t even make their longlist for Director). American Film Institute (AFI), National Board of Review (NBR), and a bunch of separate guild bodies recognized all three picks. Not only do these films feel like locks to be nominated, they are the best bets to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

TIER TWO:

Both TÁR and Top Gun: Maverick hit with PGA and DGA but missed with SAG Ensemble. No surprise on SAG, really, and not something I think will hold them back. TÁR performed much better with BAFTA, Globes, and CCA, but Top Gun: Maverick nearly swept nominations from the creative arts guilds – missing only Makeup and Hairstyling (MUAH) – and came out the winner at NBR.

TIER THREE:

Elvis sits alone here, with a nod from PGA, eight of the 10 major craft guilds, CCA nods for Picture and Director, and a Picture nomination from BAFTA. I’d argue it had the strongest showing of any PGA nominated film that missed with both DGA and SAG.

TIER FOUR:

From here things get murky. I would understand the argument for ten different films wrapping up the last four spots on the Picture lineup. Mine are:

7. Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA; Globes; HCA; PGA; CAS; CDG; ADG; SDSA; CSA; VES; MPSE; AFI; NBR; NYFCO; Satellites; AACTA; Phx; BFCC;
8. Women Talking – CCA; HCA; SAG; CDG; Scripter; AFI; NBR; Spirits; DiscFilm; Satellites; NYFCO; St.L; SEFC; OAFFC; IFJA; Phx; DFW; NC; GWNY; BFCC; AWFJ; ColOH; SF; ChicInd; Hou; Den; OFCS;
9. All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA; CAS; ADG; MPSE; NC;
10. The Whale (A24)*** – PGA; MUAH; CSA; Vegas; NTX; Phx; DFW; SCL;

Avatar and The Whale both missed the longlists with BAFTA in Picture and Director. But the former is a very craft heavy film that is large on ambition and scope, while the second might be carried in on the weight (no pun intended) of the beloved performance from its lead actor, Brendan Fraser. Both films have the PGA going for it.

Women Talking has SAG. Sarah Polley’s film might also give AMPAS the best shot of including a film directed by a woman. For what it’s worth, I think Women Talking should walk away with the SAG Ensemble prize.

That leaves All Quiet on the Western Front, with not a single major guild nod to its credit (Art Directors and Cinema Audio citations only). The last few years, however, we have seen an increase in international impact. Last year, Drive My Car (Japan) made the lineup for Best Picture as well as Director. The year before (2020), the international voters probably influenced the Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) Director nomination. 2019 was the Parasite year, and I know we all remember how that turned out. South Korea’s masterpiece won Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature, along with being nominated for Editing and Production Design. 2018 had Roma AND Cold War making big splashes in the race as well. After All Quiet tied the BAFTA record for most nominations (14), it left no doubt what international film we should be predicting (some of us had it here for months before that).

TIER FIVE:

The rest of these films could easily swap places with those in Tier Four, but I have them just missing out:

11. Babylon – CCA; Globes; SAG; CDG; MUAH; ADG; SDSA; NYFCO; Phx; DFW; GWNY; MCFCA; OFCC;
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA; Globes; PGA; CDG; ADG; SDSA; MUAH; CSA; NBR; Satellites; Vegas; AAFCA; SEFC; BosOn; IFJA; NC; UK; ColOH; OFCC; GA; Sea; ChicInd;
13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – PGA; ADG; CSA; CDG; SDSA; SCL; BFCC; AAFCA; NAACP; Satellites;
14. The Woman King (TriStar Pictures) – HCA; CDG; MUAH; AFI; NBR; AAFCA; OAFFC; DFW; BFCC; AWFJ; UK;
15. RRR (Netflix)*** – CCA; HCA; NBR; Satellites; NYFCO; SEFC; IFJA; NC; BFCC; MCFCA; OFCC; GA; ChicInd; Hou; Den; OFCS;
16. Triangle of Sadness (Neon)*** – Globes; BAFTALongList; MPSE; Cannes; Satellites;

At the end of the day, you have to plant your flag somewhere. While the first three films all have super strong credentials, and the last four seem to be very popular choices, I lean in favor of those in Tier Four for one reason and one reason alone (see Pillar Three above).

Director

Safest Bets: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (EEAAO), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Todd Field (TÁR)
Where I struggled: The fifth spot is a toss up between Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), with at least four additional directors vying for the final spot. I went with Berger, keeping a streak alive that is currently four years in the making – an International Feature director cracking the five.

Lead Actor

Safest Bets: Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Bill Nighy (Living)
Where I struggled: The final spot is going to show up as being a struggle in almost every category, I’m afraid. I was between two veteran Toms – Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) – and an indie darling, Paul Mescal (Aftersun). In the game of life, there are two kinds of people: those who take risks, and those who hedge the fuck out of their bets. I hedge. I’ll be pulling heavily for Cruise (whose only major citation was CCA) to get the nomination, but in the end, I’ll go with Mescal, who received love from CCA, BAFTA, Gothams, and Spirits.

Lead Actress

Safest Bets: Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO) and Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Where I struggled: The final three spots give me pause. I have the most confidence in Viola Davis (The Woman King), who received CCA, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA noms, followed by Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who missed only Globes. Is it as easy as Ana de Armas (Blonde), who only missed with CCA? Or will the disdain for her film crash her campaign? Her biggest competition seems to be Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), who missed both SAG and BAFTA heavyweight precursors. Many are thinking Williams will show up as a surprise nominee in Supporting, and I am afraid she misses in both spots despite giving one of the best performances of the year.

Supporting Actor

Safest Bets: Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO), Brendan Gleeson (Banshees), Barry Keoghan (Banshees)
Where I struggled: Those last two picks could go a variety of ways. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) received SAG nominations along with the three listed above. Is it a SAG 5/5 pairing here? The wrench in it being easy might be veteran actor Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), whose brief but mighty scene stole the show and had many people talking about his Oscar chances. If The Fabelmans had a stronger precursor showing, I might buy in. But it seems to be limping in, so I’ll take the SAG five.

Supporting Actress

Safest Bets: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (Banshees), Jamie Lee Curtis (EEAAO)
Where I struggled: Things are even more chaotic in this category than in any of the other acting fields. The depth is off the charts – thanks in large part to the cast of Women Talking and the switcheroo many pundits feel might happen for Michelle Williams here. Could EEAAO double-dip in this category like many foresee happening with Banshees in Supporting Actor? If so, Stephanie Hsu would get in despite missing with Globe and BAFTA. Can Hong Chau (The Whale) ride in alongside co-star and Best Actor favorite, Brendan Fraser? Will AMPAS align behind one of the Women Talking ladies or, perhaps, Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)? Hsu received the SAG and CCA, the flip of what Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said) pulled off by getting Hsu’s missing BAFTA and Globe nods, so could one of them surprise? One thing is certain with these last two spots: whoever gets in will likely do so by the skin of their teeth. Give me Chau and Hsu.

Adapted Screenplay

Safest Bets: Absolutely none.
Where I struggled: If you’d have told me three months ago that Sarah Polley’s screenplay for Women Talking wasn’t a lock to be nominated, I’d have laughed at you. But here we are. I really don’t know that any adapted screenplay is a sure thing this year. That being said, there are some I feel have better odds than others. Along with Polley, Rebecca Lenkiewicz (She Said) and Kazuo Ishiguro (Living) seem the safest bets. That leaves two spots for Samuel D. Hunter (The Whale), Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell (All Quiet on the Western Front), Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie (Top Gun: Maverick), Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, and Patrick Hale (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio), and Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery). At this point, I am all-in on All Quiet on the Western Front. The Whale and Glass Onion feel the most likely… so I took it to Twitter:

Original Screenplay

Safest Bets: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (EEAAO), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), and Todd Field (TÁR)
Where I struggled: Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original feels a whole lot safer. Whether or not that is the case, there are four scripts that I refuse to leave out, leaving one that is a toss-up amongst seven or so contenders. I boil that list down to two: Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) and Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), neither of which I am that fond of. I went with Mescal in Actor and did not go with De Leon in Supporting Actress. Did I mention how much I love to hedge my bets? Give me Östlund’s outrageous screenplay for the fifth spot.

Animated Feature

Safest Bets: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Turning Red, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Where I struggled: Just one spot feels weak here, despite Marcel also being a bit of a concern to get past an animation branch that may not see the film as animated enough. The hard part is picking a fifth, let alone sixth film if I were to take Marcel out. I’ll roll the dice there. For the last spot, I wish I could pull a BAFTA and say, nah… let’s just do four! But something has to get in with Oscar, and I’ll bet on Netflix’s Wendell & Wild.

Documentary Feature

Safest Bets: Not too confident about any, but hard to bet against All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, All That Breathes, and Fire of Love.
Where I struggled: The whole category often feels like a crapshoot, despite only having to pick five out of fifteen shortlisted films. I expect chaos here, so it’s time to go back to the gut instinct on this one – adding Navalny and Descendant to round out the selection.

International Film

Safest Bets: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany), Decision to Leave (South Korea), Close (Belgium), Argentina 1985 (Argentina)
Where I struggled: That final spot is between EO (Poland), Holy Spider (Denmark), Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico), The Quiet Girl (Ireland), and Saint Omer (France). The magic 8-ball landed on “never bet against animals,” and so we will go with the tale of an adventurous donkey, EO, to round out the field.

Cinematography

Safest Bets: Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick), Roger Deakins (Empire of Light), Greig Fraser (The Batman), Mandy Walker (Elvis)
Where I struggled: Honestly, those four above don’t feel that secure. They are just what I’d call the safest bets. All four hit BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC). Miranda and Deakins missed with the British Society of Cinematographers (BSC) but received recognition from CCA. Fraser and Walker did the opposite. Whoever I pick for the fifth spot has lesser credentials than those. James Friend’s work on All Quiet on the Western Front might be my personal choice for best shot film in 2022. Friend clearly has the British block of voters, getting BAFTA and BSC praise. Will that extend to the international block the way that I am expecting it to in other key areas? That’s the wager. Watch out for Florian Hoffmeister (TÁR), Russell Carpenter (Avatar: The Way of Water), Janusz Kaminski (The Fabelmans), Linus Sandgren (Babylon), or Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths) to take a spot.

Film Editing

Safest Bets: EEAAO, Top Gun: Maverick
Where I struggled: The American Cinema Editors (ACE) – the guild who honors the art of film editing – has yet to weigh in, masking what might be one of the closest races of the year. I’m taking the coward’s way out, sticking to the BAFTA five – so add Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Banshees of Inisherin to the list above. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn (The Fabelmans), David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin (Avatar: The Way of Water), or a variety of other strong contenders stepped in to claim their spot.

Production Design

Safest Bets: Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front
Where I struggled: A handful of films are deserving of the final spot, maybe none more than Guy Davis and Curt Enderle’s work on Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The craftsmanship on that film deserves the win, in my opinion. BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild (ADG), the two most prominent precursors for this category found room for the fairytale. Other strong contenders receiving ADG praise include Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, EEAAO, The Fabelmans, and The Batman. Of those, only The Batman earned a BAFTA nomination. Another guild, the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), recognized all of these fifth spot competitors except Pinocchio. The CCA snubbed The Batman and Pinocchio, but placed the other three in their field. The precursor trail is really muddy on this race. I’ll hand the spot to Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart for their Black Panther: Wakanda Forever contributions. The duo won the Oscar in the same category at the 91st Academy Awards for Black Panther.

Costumes

Safest Bets: Elvis, Babylon
Where I struggled: The precursor trifecta here is the CCA, BAFTA, and the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), which Elvis and Babylon were the only two to sweep in terms of nominations. Ruth E. Carter – who won the Oscar here for the first Black Panther film – won the CCA for her work on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, along with receiving the CDG nom. While Carter did not receive a BAFTA nom, she did make the long list. Jenny Beaven – the defending champ in this category for Cruella – has CDG and BAFTA in her favor for designing the outfits in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Those four feel good. That last spot could be between films that did well with precursors – EEAAO (CDG and CCA), The Woman King (CDG and CCA), or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (CDG, CCA, and BAFTA Longlist) – or it could go to a titan of costume design – Sandy Powell (Living), Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore), or Mark Bridges (The Fabelmans). I’ll go with the less conservative option here and take The Woman King to close the category.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Safest Bets: Elvis, The Whale, The Batman
Where I struggled: The shortlist brought the remaining eligible contenders down to ten. We only have to pick five, so how hard can that be? Elvis, The Whale, and The Batman received honors from CCA, BAFTA, and the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH). Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever just missed BAFTA (but were both longlisted). This feels like a “don’t overthink it” category, but god damn if the makeup in All Quiet on the Western Front isn’t the single greatest work I’ve seen in years. The layering of blood, sweat, tears, and mud… all those varying shades in the German/Belgium/French clay and sludge palette… Heike Merker’s craftsmanship all gives me pause. Fuck it, yolo, right? Give me the masterpiece of makeup work in All Quiet over Babylon.

Visual Effects

Safest Bets: Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, The Batman
Where I struggled: Like Makeup/Hairstyling, we are down to ten finalists. How can it be this hard still? The three above received CCA, BAFTA, and Visual Effects Society (VES) nominations. VES is the guild who honors the artists, animators, and technologists that bring some of our most explosive and innovative films to the big screen. For the last two spots, I’m going with films that have the best shot at landing a Best Picture nod, hoping that breaks the tie with some of the other deserving work that was shortlisted. That means All Quiet and Wakanda Forever to round things out.

Sound

Safest Bets: Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis
Where I struggled: Sound might have the most unique history of any of the categories Oscar honors. In 1963, the field split into two categories – Sound and Sound Effects. This lasted five years before merging back into one category. Then, sporadically over the next fifteen years AMPAS handed out a Special Achievement Oscar four times (for either Sound Editing or Sound Effects Editing). In 1982, at the 55th Academy Awards, the category split once again into two fields – Sound and Sound Effects Editing. It went back and forth a few times with Sound being the constant, and Sound Effects Editing coming and going. In years without a field for Sound Effects Editing, an honorary award was gifted to one film. From 1998 until 2002, Sound and Sound Editing received nominations each year, with the former having a field of five while the latter had a curious three nominees in most years (two nominees in 2000 and 2001). In 2006, AMPAS finally allowed for five nominees apiece. Sound (now called Sound Mixing) and Sound Editing remained separate until 2020, when the two were finally merged back together once again. The Cinema Audio Society (CAS) is the guild that sound mixers are members of. The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) is where, you guessed it, the sound editors gather. All that history to let everyone know that there are two guilds at play here. The three films listed above received CAS, MPSE, and BAFTA nominations for Sound. The Batman missed BAFTA (but made the longlist), TÁR missed with CAS, and All Quiet missed MPSE (one of the most shocking guild snubs of the year in any category). So which sound team is the odd one out? I’ll take the war film and the best action film of the year over the outstanding (though less loud) drama.

Original Score

Safest Bets: Babylon, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Where I struggled: Fifteen film scores remain in the running, including the “easy” picks: three-time nominee (two for score)/two-time winner Justin Hurwitz and eleven-time nominee/two-time winner Alexandre Desplat for their film compositions listed above, respectively. Both were nominated for CCA, Globes, and BAFTA, with the former taking home the win at the Globes. Hildur Guðnadóttir – who won the Oscar for Joker – took home the prize at CCA, though it was for her score for TÁR, which failed to make the shortlist. Her music for Women Talking is her shot at Oscar. John Williams was honored with nominations by Globes and CCA for The Fabelmans, though the film did not fare as well at BAFTA. Williams, a five-time winner who has been nominated an incredible 52 times (six of those for Song), came out of retirement to score his long-time film companion’s autobiographic film. And finally, Carter Burwell’s score for The Banshees of Inisherin – nominated for BAFTA and Globes – seems a nice fifth option to fill the slate. If AMPAS is truly all-in on All Quiet, you could see it pop-up here. Same goes for EEAAO, both of which received BAFTA noms.

Original Song

Safest Bets: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR), “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick), “Lift me up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Where I struggled: Those three songs feel far apart from the rest of the competition. Anyone of them could win the Oscar, but that doesn’t mean any of them are locks. The men from RRR have been winning hearts for their outrageously fun film, where their song and dance number is the epicenter of that good time. The song won both CCA and Globes and is the frontrunner at the moment. The other two songs are written and performed by Lady Gaga and Rhianna, giving them a cool factor. After that, you get the lovely “Ciao Papa” in Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as the most likely to land. Then you are left with a final spot for one of Taylor Swift’s “Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing), LCD Soundsystem’s “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise), David Byrne’s “This is a Life” (EEAAO), or Diane Warren’s “Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman). Warren is a 13-time nominee in this category who is also one of the recipients of this year’s Honorary Oscars. While I’d love to gamble on “Good Afternoon” from Spirited, it is hard to bet against the legend that is Diane Warren when it comes to Original Song.

Documentary Short Subject

Safest Bets: None
Where I struggled: The shorts will always be a total crapshoot. My strategy: watch as many as I can squeeze in and hope for the best. I went with 38 at the Garden, The Flagmakers, The Martha Mitchell Effect, The Elephant Whisperers, and Nuisance Bear. My favorite of the shortlisted doc shorts was How Do You Measure a Year? I hedged my bet emotionally here.

Live Action Short

Safest Bets: None
Where I struggled: See above. I went with Le Pupille, An Irish Goodbye, The Red Suitcase, Warsha, and Nakam, once again hedging against my personal favorite – All In Favor.

Animated Short

Safest Bets: None
Where I struggled: See above. I went with The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants, New Moon, and My Year of Dicks.