Our Oscar race still feels wide open. That’s because we’ve had different winners so far, with no consensus of what the actual frontrunner is. The hive mind that covers the Oscars has decided that frontrunner is Everything Everywhere All at Once. It made a decent amount of money at the box office: around $70 million domestically. It is inventive, original, moving in places, and above all, it is intersectional. A win for this movie gets the Academy off the hook from the day-after headlines complaining that Oscar is so white.
This was more or less what happened in 2019 when Parasite (which is a masterpiece) was going head-to-head with Sam Mendes’ 1917, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Todd Phillips’ Joker. If you’ll recall, that year the acting frontrunners were all white. The headlines were brutal. Had Sam Mendes and 1917 won, that would have meant all of the Oscar winners were white in the major categories. This was pre-COVID and pre-revolutionary Hollywood, just before the Summer of 2020. There was a Hollywood before and a Hollywood after.
The Green Book apocalypse had put the Oscars on the defensive. The last thing they needed was to have all white people winning awards. Now, we’re looking at a similar year where any winner other than EEAAO will break with the new history that so far hasn’t awarded a white male for Director or a Best Picture winner that was directed by a white male.
So you might say, well that isn’t fair. Maybe the movie deserves to win regardless of who directed it (one Asian and one white male). Then I would say, I agree. But I didn’t make these rules and you can’t have it both ways. It can’t always be about race and then suddenly not be about race. Either it is or it isn’t. Whatever has happened to Hollywood from 2016 on is worth talking about, even if no one particularly wants to talk about it.
But either which way that goes, these are all great movies and any of them that wins will be deserving ultimately. Despite what happened in 2020, where Sam Mendes won the DGA and Bong Joon-Ho won the Oscar for Directing, in general the DGA winner does go on to win the Oscar, at least for directing.
The hot shots over at Gold Derby have predicted the Daniels to win for Everything Everywhere All at Once, with a few holdouts predicting Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans.
From 2009-2021:
Five times the Golden Globe Best Director winner did not go on to win the Oscar.
Three times the Critics Choice winner did not go on to win the Oscar.
Three times the BAFTA winner did not go on to win the Oscar.
One time the DGA winner did not go on to win the Oscar.
In years past, the first big guild to announce has been the Producers Guild. Generally, right after the Golden Globes we get the PGA, which either backs up the Globes or takes it in a different direction. Then we would hear from the DGA, and finally, the SAG.
The order has been switched this year and last, with the DGA going first, then the PGA and SAG on the same weekend.
This matters because the PGA has a better record predicting Best Picture while the DGA has the better record predicting Best Director.
2009:
The Hurt Locker — PGA / DGA / Oscar BP + Director + Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds — SAG
2010:
The King’s Speech — PGA / DGA / SAG / Oscar BP + Director + Screenplay
2011:
The Artist — PGA / DGA / Oscar BP + Director
The Help — SAG
2012:
Argo — PGA / DGA / SAG / Oscar BP + Screenplay
Life of Pi — Oscar Director
2013:
12 Years a Slave — PGA / Oscar BP + Screenplay
Gravity — DGA/PGA/Oscar Director
American Hustle — SAG
2014:
Birdman — PGA / DGA / SAG / Oscar BP + Director + Screenplay
2015:
Spotlight — SAG / Oscar BP + Screenplay
The Revenant — DGA / Oscar Director
The Big Short — PGA / Oscar Screenplay
2016:
La La Land — PGA / DGA / Oscar Director
Hidden Figures — Hidden Figures
Moonlight — WGA / Oscar BP + Screenplay
2017:
The Shape of Water — PGA / DGA /Oscar BP + Director
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri — SAG
2018:
Green Book — PGA / Oscar BP + Screenplay
Roma — DGA / Oscar Director
Black Panther — SAG
2019:
1917 — PGA / DGA
Parasite — SAG / Oscar BP + Director + Screenplay
2020:
Nomadland — PGA / DGA / Oscar BP + Director
Trial of Chicago 7 — SAG
2021:
CODA — PGA / SAG / Oscar BP + Screenplay
The Power of the Dog — DGA
You can see how things have changed over time just looking at the ways the big guilds have divided as the industry tries to twist itself into a pretzel to satisfy everyone and leave no marginalized person behind. This year is unpredictable because of what we’ve just come out of and what Hollywood has gone through in terms of struggling box office returns, ratings, etc.
On the flipside, they’ve gotten a massive wakeup call with Joseph Kozinski’s Top Gun: Maverick. At the moment, no one at Gold Derby is predicting Kosinski to win the DGA. I just might, for the fun of it. When you think about a voting body as big as the DGA, with 16,000 voters, it is not entirely out of the question that they pick the most commercially popular movie of the year. The film could also win the PGA and then go on to win Best Picture.
Because it’s such a wide open race and such an unpredictable year, I could very well see Top Gun shocking everyone and winning the big guilds. It can’t, however, win the SAG or the BAFTA.
Everything Everywhere All at Once could, quite simply, run the table on the entire awards race like Birdman did in 2014, winning the DGA, the PGA, the SAG, and then taking Best Picture. And I would imagine that is what most people are predicting.
The Top Gun publicity team seems to sense the best pitch for the film to win:
If that happens, it is a sign that the pendulum is swinging and Hollywood is going to fight for its survival. But that’s less likely to happen than what the Gold Derby folks are predicting, or what many people like me are predicting, and that’s Steven Spielberg winning for The Fablemans.
With 13 nominations and 3 wins, Spielberg already holds the record for most awarded at the DGA. At the Oscars, he needs one more win to join the company of the list of most Best Director wins: John Ford with four, William Wyler and Frank Capra with three.
Here are the RT final rundowns of the five DGA nominees:
I continue to wonder whether Top Gun: Maverick’s popularity will mean it wins with votes of thousands of people. The Film Twitter love for Everything Everywhere definitely distorts our perception of how well that movie is going to do with industry voters, though my instinct is telling me they’re more likely to go for an intersectional film rather than what is considered a movie driven by white male energy.
I guess we’ll find out soon. Either way:
If the Daniels win the DGA, then we’re likely looking at a sweep of the awards season for the film.
If Joseph Kosinski wins the DGA, then we’re more likely looking at Top Gun: Maverick winning Best Picture.
If Steven Spielberg wins the DGA, then EEAAO is not as strong of a frontunner, but could still win Best Picture.
Films that won both the PGA + SAG or the DGA + SAG in the era of the expanded ballot have always won Best Picture.
Here are the charts (thank you Marshall) and don’t forget to vote in our poll below:
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