2023 Oscar Predictions — It All Starts With the Directors Guild

This weekend, we will find out just how accurate our analysis has been of this race. It should be noted that consensus building has more or less overtaken analysis, unless the voters revolt — which they might do. Otherwise, they’ll stick with the consensus, meaning they’ll pick the contenders we think they’re going to pick. We just have no intel at the moment of how a voting body of 16,000 members is going to vote on a five nominee ballot, as opposed to a ten nominee ballot, which will happen the following weekend.

Either the race is a done deal starting this weekend — if the Daniels win for Everything, Everywhere All at Once — or it’s a real race, if anyone else wins. Let’s look around at what people are predicting elsewhere. The latest has our friend Jazz going out on a limb with Todd Field for TAR, while Queen Anne is going for Spielberg:

And then the two champs of late, Wilson Morales and Joyce Eng, are going all in with The Daniels:

The DGA voters are one of the largest groups in the industry, second only to SAG. If they both go for EEAAO, stick a fork in it. You might as well start focusing on the only two open categories, Best Actor and Best Actress. Maybe — MAYBE — Original Screenplay.

The only times the DGA has given their award to two directors were in 1961 (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story) and in 2007 (Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men). These are two of the greatest films of all time, it should be said, so for EEAAO to land in that esteemed company would be saying a lot.

Might it happen? Sure, it might. It reminds me of Little Miss Sunshine, though, meaning it might have a better chance to win on a preferential ballot. What would be The Departed of this year? Probably Top Gun: Maverick. The red meat pick trumping the more female-oriented, feel-good movie. Is that likely to happen? It would be a huge shock, but probably one that, once in motion, would be hard to slow down.

The voters don’t always comply with the consensus, especially if the critics are behind it. The actors tend to be the deciding factor, and if they’re not into Top Gun: Maverick (which it doesn’t appear that they are) then it isn’t likely to win the Best Picture Oscar.

With five, it’s easier to see a big winner like Gladiator or Chicago that wins without Director or Screenplay. If the Academy had five now, Top Gun: Maverick would have a much easier chance to win. But with the ranked choice ballot, actors become the key voting bloc. What they like is what will drive this thing all the way home. And what they like has shifted in the past few years from movies that display great acting to movies that reflect social justice issues in one way or another: what will make them FEEL good about their vote and LOOK GOOD to their fans and followers?

The question, as always, to ask is whether the industry has moved through its activist stage or not. Given the uproar over the Best Actress race, and the residual guilt (after everything they’ve done to improve things for non-white actors), the voters might feel still inclined to divert or subvert their personal preferences to vote more for the betterment of society (or their image) overall. And it could be those two things align.

No matter how you slice it, it always seems to come back to Everything, Everywhere All at Once, with no viable alternative to challenge it where the preferential ballot is concerned (if it’s five movies then it’s just a simple competition).

What we don’t yet know is whether Picture and Director will split.

Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch is predicting Everything Everywhere takes Picture and Director. 

Gold Derby is slightly more divided on Picture and Director.

If they split:

2012 — Argo (PGA/DGA/SAG) / Life of Pi
2013 — 12 Years a Slave (PGA) / Gravity (PGA/DGA)
2015 — Spotlight (SAG) / The Revenant (DGA)
2016 — Moonlight / La La Land (PGA/DGA)
2018 — Green Book (PGA) / Roma (DGA)
2021 — CODA (PGA/SAG) / The Power of the Dog (DGA)

Or if they don’t:

2009 — The Hurt Locker (PGA/DGA)
2010 — The King’s Speech (PGA/DGA/SAG)
2011 — The Artist (PGA/DGA)
2014 — Birdman (PGA/DGA/SAG)
2017 — The Shape of Water (PGA/DGA)
2019 — Parasite (SAG)
2020 — Nomadland (PGA/DGA)

Parasite is the only time in the era of the preferential ballot that the DGA winner did not win either Best Picture or Director or both. A combination of factors led to this, from a conversation about all white winners in the acting categories to the charisma of Bong Joon Ho, to people finally getting around to seeing Parasite and to voters not wanting to vote for the frontrunner, 1917. The problem for 1917 was that it wasn’t a movie full of actors and in general, that’s what wins Best Picture. Mendes was expected to win Best Director but by the end the Parasite love was too strong.

The ways this year could split will obviously depend on what wins the DGA this weekend and PGA/SAG next weekend. Most are assuming Everything Everywhere takes all three. But if it doesn’t, how might it split?

In the above list of splits, there is one thing they all have in common: the Best Picture winner has a SAG ensemble nomination and the Best Director winner does not.

So which of our Best Director nominees doesn’t have a SAG ensemble nomination?

TAR
Triangle of Sadness

In keeping with the pattern above, the most likely person to benefit from a split is Todd Field for TAR, in which case he would likely win the DGA this weekend. That’s some fuzzy math for you!

As for the non-splits, having a SAG ensemble nomination definitely helps but it isn’t mandatory. Twice the winner didn’t have a SAG ensemble nomination but did have acting nominations somewhere, which is ultimately what hurts movies like Top Gun Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front.

It’s possible that this year could break with tradition, given that Hollywood is in such dire straits. Sometimes they can break a pattern if they are motivated enough and I think that’s the only way the race will become unpredictable. Otherwise, all points lead back to one movie dominating these awards: EEAAO.

Here are our DGA predictions. I am going to go rogue on this just for fun, since we have almost every director covered here AND we have to try to inject SOME excitement into what is likely about to become a predictable race.

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans — Marshall Flores, Mark Johnson
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once — Clarence Moye
Todd Field, TAR — Ryan Adams
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick — Sasha Stone

First-Time Director:
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores

I’m going with Kosinski because I can’t decide between Spielberg and the Daniels. My heart says Spielberg, my head says The Daniels. It’s probably going to be the Daniels, but let’s just take a risk for the fun of it.

Onward to predictions for this week. Depending on what the DGA does…

Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (if it wins the DGA/PGA/SAG)
Top Gun: Maverick (If it wins the DGA/PGA)
The Fabelmans (if it wins the DGA/PGA)
The Banshees of Inisherin (if it wins the DGA/PGA/SAG)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Triangle of Sadness

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (if he wins the DGA)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (if they win DGA)
Todd Field, Tár (if he wins the DGA)
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (If he wins the SAG)
Austin Butler, Elvis (If he wins the SAG/BAFTA)
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (if he wins the SAG or the BAFTA)
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár (if she wins the SAG)
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (if she wins the SAG)
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick (if it wins the DGA)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness

Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Empire of Light
Bardo

Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Fabelmans

Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman

Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Score
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Song
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR or “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Best Documentary
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants

Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride

Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate